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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    We've been close to or in the sweet spot with this one for a while...and surprisingly that hasn't really changed. Should be interesting when I'm trying to leave work around midday Friday. @madwx I just realized how similar our avatars are ever since I changed mine to a frame from my Keota tornado video; horizon and debris cloud are at about the same level, only difference is my foreground is drab brown since it was taken in March.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Not trusting it, merely commenting on it.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    That 18Z HRRR gives some parts of southern WI and far northern IL nearly 1" in an hour toward the end of the run with the snow far from over. Sorry, south of I-80 (possibly even I-88) folks.
  4. CheeselandSkies
    12Z Euro deepens 8 MB in 6 hours, from 981 at 18Z Friday to 973 at 00Z Saturday. Wasted QPF, bad ratios or not, a storm of this intensity is going to have significant, varied, and dangerous impacts across a large area. There could even be a storm surge in much of New England/Long Island with that strong, broad southerly fetch blowing into the low Friday night.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Not as much as the HRRR, though.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    There's always gotta be one...
  7. CheeselandSkies
    06Z GFS does this weird thing where it moves the low southeast on Friday morning. 992mb over central MO at FH054, 989mb over the AR/MS/TN confluence at FH057. What gives? 12Z NAM looks $$$ for WI and western to northern Lower MI.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Not bad consistency on placement and intensity 36 hours apart:
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Getting under some of the heaviest returns of the event here. 8" reported at Muscoda, WI.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    So the question is, why does the guidance (across multiple models and multiple ensemble members) keep showing them until relatively close in time?
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Nice. I'm mentioned on here previously that during the winter storm of early December, 2009 when we got about a foot of wet cement (I can only guess what ratios were, but definitely less than 10:1), my dad had a snowblower attachment for his John Deere 112 garden tractor, but being a single stage it was useless for throwing that stuff.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Is that a 2-stage (has a blower inside the chute in addition to the auger)?
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Whoops, GFS wasn't done deepening:
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Save worthy:
  15. CheeselandSkies
    I joined this board in 2017 and I think this is the first winter where the mantra of "January will be rockin'" might actually come to fruition, at least starting in the first half of the month.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    2 MB from Janesville to Madison, that is quite a gradient. Winds will be cranking with this one.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Because it is a big dog. ...at least, it should be for someone. As to who at this point is anyone's guess.
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Euro is high end across a wide swath of the region with the multiple systems through Saturday 1/13.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Would be ironic if this northwest-trended all the way to a Twin Cities/northern WI event. NAM definitely giving some pause in that regard.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    As things stand now in the ashes of those insane runs on Friday, the later week/following weekend system could use some northwest trend (from my standpoint), so
  21. CheeselandSkies
  22. CheeselandSkies
    18Z NAM still doing that thing where it weirdly sends the surface low way further north. You'd think, with the triple point going across the IA/IL/WI border region, it would be setting the stage for a midwinter Midwest outbreak; but the moisture still stays confined to the immediate Gulf coastal region. Would love that track if it was April or May (heck, even March, that's gotten it done plenty of times in this region in recent years).
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Ironic. Just yesterday our chief met where I work was talking about how it's trending east and he was expecting snow totals over southern Wisconsin to decrease enough that he could cancel the "Alert Day" for Tuesday.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    06Z GFS deepens 13mb in 6 hours, goes from 984mb at FH165 to 971mb at FH171 and still rapidly deepening. Edit: 967mb over the southern tip of Lake Michigan at FH177, then goes right up the spine of the lake, still deepening. This is the type of storm that sinks ships.
  25. CheeselandSkies
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