CheeselandSkies

I'm not even a winter guy but...

Last night into this morning was expected to be the "main event" for us this weekend, but it looks like we got a DAB if anything at all. We actually got more Friday night.

This morning's DAB has contributed to something on the order of a dozen slide-offs around southern Wisconsin already, and that's just on the major highway systems that get shown on the state DOT's live map. Many of the major Interstates/US highways around the Madison area are parking lots at the moment.

Kick myself for not chasing 2/8 but come on...the dewpoint was like 48. The better potential (and even that was marginal) was thought to be further south in IL. From April-May had probably my greatest number of local/regional chases than any prior year, and was on more tornadic storms than any previous year, but reverted solidly to form and managed to miss all potential dramatic intercepts like Keota. Coming home from my May 21 chase in IA I had to detour around multiple roads blocked by downed trees/power lines, and nearly ran out of gas as a result. There were broken trees less than two blocks from my apartment. Going to work the next morning (3 AM start), some neighborhoods were pitch black with all street lights and even traffic lights out. One of the more widespread and impactful severe wind events for southern Wisconsin, and west Madison in particular in probably over 10 years. Didn't go out for the big Northern Lights display in May because I didn't think the clouds would clear around here, but it definitely put photographing an aurora high on my bucket list. Finally did it with the display on the night of October 10-11, although my shots aren't the most stellar, it's a start.

My favorite CP3 moment:

If you're referring to the Mega Millions jackpot, that was won in California on the Friday 12/27 drawing.

Seen a storm total LSR of 6" at Fennimore and 9.1" at Horicon. Solid overperformer across southern WI.

It's interesting how only a degree of latitude further north and I have a vastly different perception. I view the long stretches of no precip (either CAD in winter or WAD in summer) seemingly regardless of ENSO state as the overarching issue.

Recent stretch of GFS runs has had a signal that says watch out for chances between Christmas and New Year's...could be anywhere from the Deep South to Iowa at this point.

Been wondering what with the incoming (delayed) La Nina if the other shoe would drop and we would see a bona fide late fall/met winter outbreak or 2 a la 2021. These last few troughs have struggled with lack of moisture return and/or maturing too late, becoming negatively tilted only just before the warm sector pushes completely off the east coast.

Still waiting for the Frostnado.

A day late for the 15th anniversary because I forgot yesterday. December 8-9, 2009 was one of the few double-digit total snowstorms I remember in my adult life, and perhaps the only one that occurred pre-Solstice. This video was taken at the house where I lived with my parents at the time, near Stoughton, Dane County, WI. What also made it memorable was that it was heavy, wet, pure heart attack paste. Don't want to guess at ratios but certainly on the wetter side of 10:1. The weight of it combined with the gusty winds at the height of the storm brought down multiple large tree limbs.

Pretty remarkable given the extended dry stretch we had after the spring faucet turned off.

Those panhandle hooks aren't too common but can be big time storms for our region with a mixed bag of heavy , synoptic winds and depending on which air mass you end up in, and assuming the system has an adequate moisture feed.

Yep, overperforming a bit in west Madison IMO. Roads have been a mess with at least two crashes closing I-94 between Madison and Milwaukee for long stretches of time.

ICON's apparently been doing well with tropical cyclones this year, be interesting to see how that translates to extratropical ones.

Big fail for GFS/GEFS and to an extent Euro as well. 36 hours ago I was pretty confident this was at the very least going to be a solid ACE-booster.

Day 2 (Election Day) 2% ...

That was not on my bingo card for last night. Central OK was on the fringe of the 2%. If that was going to happen would have been looking for it a couple days ago with the 10 hatch, or tomorrow with the next one.

I thought Nina does 2011-'12?

(From the earlier linked tweet Xpost by Ben Noll) I wonder if that could lead to more December central U.S. outbreaks a la 2021 (12/10, 12/15). Although interestingly we also had some in 2015 (12/23, 12/26) which was during the powerhouse El Nino. James Spann referred to the mild conditions across the southeast US during that period as the "El Nino Blowtorch," although it seems to me that pattern is also associated with La Nina.

My take on the aurora from Thursday night. Photographing one has been on my bucket list for a while, especially after not going out for the last big event back in May because I didn't think the clouds would clear in time over southern Wisconsin. Took me awhile to find a decent spot in rural western Dane County, away from the light pollution of Madison, where there wasn't a tree-lined ridge completely blocking the northern sky. Then of course when I finally found one it was right during a lull in activity. Eventually another substorm hit and a faint glow appeared in the northern sky, gradually brightening with some pillars visible to the naked eye, although the colors really weren't.

Photographing the northern lights is still on my bucket list. Didn't go out for the big display in May because I didn't think the clouds over southern Wisconsin that night would clear in time.

Yeah, I saw that live and thought that was funny too. Lawn sprinklers going in the middle of a hurricane.

Good point. I think of Ian as a Punta Gorda/Pt. Charlotte storm (like Charley); but they didn't get the surge there. Sanibel and Ft. Myers Beach did.