CheeselandSkies

On nearly every chase day I've had where I've seen tornadoes, or was within striking distance of tornadoes but missed them due to being dumb, I've seen that sky when approaching/arriving in the target area.

Unfortunate waste of potential in both the and departments. Could have done something significant with a little more antecedent cold air to pull in on the back side and different timing/better lapse rates in the warm sector.

Yeah, those should definitely be in winter hibernation. Founding queen of Vespula germanica (German yellowjacket).

I have Friday off. Why couldn't this system be about 6-7 hours slower?

Oh, *bleep*. Hard pass on that look for me.

Hey, by the last day of March 2023 I was shooting in Iowa so I'll take it.

Bunch of people rushed out and bought snowblowers for the end of November storm; now won't use them again for 5 years.

Here's the thing though. May not be true for other parts of the sub, but here in Wisconsin we can be solidly AA in Jan/Feb and it's still cold enough to snow. I'm firmly part of the camp who can do without the extended periods of barely cracking 10°F.

From wind chills in the -20s today and tomorrow to...that. The phrase "averages are merely a mean of extremes" comes to mind. Between the first and second halves, this month will likely show up as close to "normal" temperature-wise around these parts when all is said and done, but it will say absolutely nothing about the conditions actually experienced on any given day.

4 years ago OTD...

Cassville, WI live camera:

Been steadily snowing all morning in Madison but rates and flake sizes have been fairly run-of-the-mill. Hoping one of those heaver bands can make its way up here.

18Z 3K NAM backed off a bit from its prior few runs, down to a "mere" 8.2" for Madison by 18Z (noon CST) Sunday. Even that would be exceptional for before December 1st. However the 15Z RAP was all in on a top-end big dog with 15.5" at the same forecast hour.

I think you have to go all the way back to 2009 for the last true big dog (double digit totals) prior to December 10th in my memory. That one surely had some compaction involved, because it was low-ratio library paste, yet still flirted with or exceeded a foot in most parts of southern Wisconsin.

Looks like Madison is actually riding the north edge of the double digit totals. NAM has gradually come down a bit, from 12.8" to about 10.8" However points in far southern Wisconsin such as Janesville still get in on 12-13."

Didn't see this thread until almost a year later, but I gave you a follow.

Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in. Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.

I've noticed as of today the models have it amplifying more in the central CONUS rather than the western. This puts a kibosh on potential but it still brings the snow this weekend, at least for me and points north.

12Z GFS rolling...

So what *is* good? And has NWP really regressed that badly in recent years or it is just perception (which I share)? If the former, why?

Long as that doesn't mean winter hangs around till the end of April the following year like it did then.

Euro and GFS both have a broad, highly amplified western trough for the end of the month. Far too early for specifics especially lately, other than to say it "should do something somewhere," from to to . Ceiling might be limited by a tendency for a positively tilted ejection with the stronger flow hanging on the back side, and of course thermodynamics this time of year. Although after days like February 8, 2024 I never count out tornado threats based solely on T/Td values, it looks like this setup would need colder temperatures aloft than what's currently being depicted verbatim to realize adequate instability.

The one in my Corolla has been stuck on for over a year. I check the tires with a pressure gauge periodically and they are always close to spec, if one is low I pump it up but the light never turns off.

At one point it looked like there was a chance Hurricane Leslie of 2018 might shoot the Straight of Gibraltar and become a "medicane," which would have been a fitting conclusion given that system's prior history.

Nothing here this morning, unless I slept through it.