CheeselandSkies

Seen a storm total LSR of 6" at Fennimore and 9.1" at Horicon. Solid overperformer across southern WI.

It's interesting how only a degree of latitude further north and I have a vastly different perception. I view the long stretches of no precip (either CAD in winter or WAD in summer) seemingly regardless of ENSO state as the overarching issue.

Recent stretch of GFS runs has had a signal that says watch out for chances between Christmas and New Year's...could be anywhere from the Deep South to Iowa at this point.

Been wondering what with the incoming (delayed) La Nina if the other shoe would drop and we would see a bona fide late fall/met winter outbreak or 2 a la 2021. These last few troughs have struggled with lack of moisture return and/or maturing too late, becoming negatively tilted only just before the warm sector pushes completely off the east coast.

Still waiting for the Frostnado.

A day late for the 15th anniversary because I forgot yesterday. December 8-9, 2009 was one of the few double-digit total snowstorms I remember in my adult life, and perhaps the only one that occurred pre-Solstice. This video was taken at the house where I lived with my parents at the time, near Stoughton, Dane County, WI. What also made it memorable was that it was heavy, wet, pure heart attack paste. Don't want to guess at ratios but certainly on the wetter side of 10:1. The weight of it combined with the gusty winds at the height of the storm brought down multiple large tree limbs.

Pretty remarkable given the extended dry stretch we had after the spring faucet turned off.

Those panhandle hooks aren't too common but can be big time storms for our region with a mixed bag of heavy , synoptic winds and depending on which air mass you end up in, and assuming the system has an adequate moisture feed.

Yep, overperforming a bit in west Madison IMO. Roads have been a mess with at least two crashes closing I-94 between Madison and Milwaukee for long stretches of time.

ICON's apparently been doing well with tropical cyclones this year, be interesting to see how that translates to extratropical ones.

Big fail for GFS/GEFS and to an extent Euro as well. 36 hours ago I was pretty confident this was at the very least going to be a solid ACE-booster.

Day 2 (Election Day) 2% ...

That was not on my bingo card for last night. Central OK was on the fringe of the 2%. If that was going to happen would have been looking for it a couple days ago with the 10 hatch, or tomorrow with the next one.

I thought Nina does 2011-'12?

(From the earlier linked tweet Xpost by Ben Noll) I wonder if that could lead to more December central U.S. outbreaks a la 2021 (12/10, 12/15). Although interestingly we also had some in 2015 (12/23, 12/26) which was during the powerhouse El Nino. James Spann referred to the mild conditions across the southeast US during that period as the "El Nino Blowtorch," although it seems to me that pattern is also associated with La Nina.