CheeselandSkies

3K NAM hinted at this which is one of the reasons I didn't drive 4-5 hours into IL. I think if we got some heating a little earlier (and maybe less midday convection in IL interdicting the moisture return) we could have had something more significant up this way.

New warning with cell in northern part of Dane Co.

Tornado warning on small cell in southern Dane County. This is why I stayed home lol. Edit: Gone. Was based on an IMO suspect funnel cloud report, velocity never showed much of anything.

Suddenly a severe thunderstorm warning here.

Satellite showing clearing pushing in there as well as NW IL. If I'm still going to chase today it'll be because something promising fires there.

Annnnd the clouds have thickened up again. Vis sat looks like we should be almost clear, but looking out my window tells a different story.

Sky starting to brighten here. @madwx

I think I'm cancelling chase plans for today. Anything north of at least I-72/74 is going to be messy garbage, and moving at 60 MPH (per the warning currently in Knox/Peoria Counties). Got too used to these (sometimes ridiculously) early season setups performing after 3/5/22, 3/31/23 and 2/8/24.

1630Z outlook trimmed all of WI and most of northern IL out of any risk above Marginal. 3K NAM runs were showing high EHI values up to the WI/IL border.

Ah yes, the PDS wienerhead outbreak.

It's the first run to come in range, but 0Z HRRR washes out the northern IL portion of the setup with a big MCS (left over from what develops tomorrow evening) Wednesday morning. However, it does break out a few dangerous-looking supercells along the Ohio River by 23-00Z.

...and with more favorable timing, at that (triple point pushing in at closer to 21Z instead of 18Z). A frustrating amount of flip flopping for inside of 48 hours from the event.

As I suspected; latest NAM crashed way down on the forecast EHI/STP values over northern Illinois compared to just 0Z last night.

Again, still somewhat skeptical on this as a widespread/significant outbreak which is why I think SPC was wise to hold off on an initial Day-3 Moderate. I could easily see a scenario where the northern part of the risk area (a.k.a. us) gets borked by morning convection and the southern part by veered low-level winds and outflow interactions (like yesterday).

Well that sure turned around quick. Wasn't I just seeing a bunch of long range outlooks that had positive anomalies in the East/Midwest?