CheeselandSkies

Quoting myself from the medium/LR thread: Last night's 0Z GFS was a favorable look in that regard, with some moisture being tugged back west beneath quite cold mid/upper levels. Subsequent runs slightly less so, with a narrower wavelength to the trough and consequent more meridional flow in the exit region. Long way to go with this one, but something should happen late next week. The floor is probably something similar to what's occurring yesterday/today.

Hoping the one later next week has less moisture issues and can at least pull off a respectable cold-core potential somewhere in the region. So much funny stuff has happened in that department in this region absurdly early in the season in recent years (from two consecutive years with a March Iowa EF4 to a 26-mile EF2 in Wisconsin on February 8th) it's almost become an expectation. This week's system was a bit of a reality check.

Last one. Starts with a free car wash courtesy of the Great Midwest Derecho of 8/10/2020.

12Z GFS has another system in around 10-11 days that verbatim, despite being another sfc/500mb powerhouse is too moisture-starved for sig (at least in most of this sub). If the timing changes a bit (which it will), it could turn into something, though. Would be a white rain blizzard on the back side on the 13th as depicted. 973MB over Chicago and it's 55 degrees in Milwaukee, ~30 in Madison at 18Z.

I certainly hope so.

More of my past history of driving around after storms in the region:

I like sturms. Sometimes I drive around to look at them. I'm mainly looking for the ones that spin really fast, but even though I usually don't see that I usually see at least a little something cool and/or photogenic.

2/28/17 Winterset 2022 2/8/24 There are no rules anymore. That said, the upcoming pattern does not look favorable for an abnormally far north early season severe wx event in the near term.

Interesting. A lot of the analogs being pulled by the various TwXers I'm seeing are among the worst springs for chasing in my adult life (2006, 2009 and 2018). However this late winter has not really played out like any of those years locally IMO.

Was not expecting that. Almost spun out going from work back to my apartment on my break.

I didn't think it was supposed to rain tonight. Have just been hearing about precip chances for Wednesday.

There was a similar screw hole depicted on one of these maps a couple winters ago except it was triangular, I called it the "Bermuda Triangle of Snow."

I'm ambivalent at best about snow (really only here for the big dogs with lots of model hype that verifies; and when has that actually happened? lol), hate driving in it (Go figure, I'm fine with driving a mile from an EF4 tornado, but I don't f*** with winter precip if I can help it) and I intensely dislike the deep cold. However, we desperately needed some sort of snowpack going into spring to avoid a flash drought.

Lobsta.

Confusion...what am I missing? 12Z run and 3K output are similar.