CheeselandSkies

ICON's apparently been doing well with tropical cyclones this year, be interesting to see how that translates to extratropical ones.

Big fail for GFS/GEFS and to an extent Euro as well. 36 hours ago I was pretty confident this was at the very least going to be a solid ACE-booster.

Day 2 (Election Day) 2% ...

That was not on my bingo card for last night. Central OK was on the fringe of the 2%. If that was going to happen would have been looking for it a couple days ago with the 10 hatch, or tomorrow with the next one.

I thought Nina does 2011-'12?

(From the earlier linked tweet Xpost by Ben Noll) I wonder if that could lead to more December central U.S. outbreaks a la 2021 (12/10, 12/15). Although interestingly we also had some in 2015 (12/23, 12/26) which was during the powerhouse El Nino. James Spann referred to the mild conditions across the southeast US during that period as the "El Nino Blowtorch," although it seems to me that pattern is also associated with La Nina.

My take on the aurora from Thursday night. Photographing one has been on my bucket list for a while, especially after not going out for the last big event back in May because I didn't think the clouds would clear in time over southern Wisconsin. Took me awhile to find a decent spot in rural western Dane County, away from the light pollution of Madison, where there wasn't a tree-lined ridge completely blocking the northern sky. Then of course when I finally found one it was right during a lull in activity. Eventually another substorm hit and a faint glow appeared in the northern sky, gradually brightening with some pillars visible to the naked eye, although the colors really weren't.

Photographing the northern lights is still on my bucket list. Didn't go out for the big display in May because I didn't think the clouds over southern Wisconsin that night would clear in time.

Yeah, I saw that live and thought that was funny too. Lawn sprinklers going in the middle of a hurricane.

Good point. I think of Ian as a Punta Gorda/Pt. Charlotte storm (like Charley); but they didn't get the surge there. Sanibel and Ft. Myers Beach did.

I think in this case, north runs more into the shear along/behind the front. As a lot of these storms are, it's gonna be riding a fine line between enhanced upper divergence/baroclinic enhancement; and getting ripped apart. Absolute worst case scenario for impacts (not likely by any means, but can't be considered off the table, either) is it gets larger following another EWRC, finds the baroclinic sweet spot to maintain intensity at around say low-end C4, AND said sweet spot happens to be JUST far enough north to take the RFQ over Tampa Bay.

Taking all of today's developments into consideration, IMO there seems to be a reasonably good consensus that: A.) There's a higher likelihood than not that Tampa Bay avoids getting right-front-quadded with a worst-case surge scenario. However, it's far from a guarantee. Such an outcome would be well within the forecast margin of error. B.) Even if the center does go south of the bay, it's likely to be waaaaay too close for comfort and will bring significant wind, rain and surge impacts to a large part, if not all of the Tampa/St. Pete/Clearwater/Bradenton area. It's impossible to determine at this point where within that area receives the heaviest impacts. Therefore, no one within that area should be taking a victory lap or heading home from their evacuation spot because they read on the Internet that "the cone shifted south" or whatever. At the coast, the 5PM cone goes from about Crystal River to North Naples, and that's just the range of uncertainty for the center track. It says right at the top of the graphic, "Hazardous conditions can occur outside of the cone." Disclaimer: I'm not a professional meteorologist, just a guy who likes tracking hurricanes and is a chaser (with a mediocre at best success rate) of land-based severe convective weather.

Wasn't the HMON the weakest of the hurricane models for a long time with this system? Now HAFS is weaker; maybe the model was so surprised the hurricane actually matched its intensity prediction that it broke. While I'm on the subject, anyone know the reason the HMON doesn't have a sim IR product like the HWRF and HAFS-A/B; at least one that's available on TT?

Exactly. From the start I've seen a lot of posters on multiple forums (including some pro mets) treating this as if it was another Charley, Irma or Ian situation. IMO that's a dangerous assumption to make with this much different setup, even if the RFQ ultimately does go in south of Tampa Bay.

The way I think of it for example, is... Hurricane Ike was so bad because it had tremendous IKE.