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PB-99

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  1. PB-99
  2. PB-99
    The stronger the storm the more likely it is to move poleward. The 6z EPS was weaker so it`s able to drift into Fla. If it gets stronger ( models have a hard time with intensification sometimes ) it prob avoids Fla. So it comes down to intensification. If it`s weak then NC dodges a bullet.
  3. PB-99
    This was the GEFS at 6z as we wait for its 12z. Per Ventrice.
  4. PB-99
    I think it's going to want to move poleward. But yes, this all hinges on is it a 1 2 or 3 at its peak.
  5. PB-99
    Yes the further off Florida the stronger in the SE which has implications here.
  6. PB-99
    And it's that RRQ where we have the most risk. If it hits NC as a 2 , it rips NNE so is it still a 1 here. If it`s shredded prior then it`s a nice rainer.
  7. PB-99
    I think this maxes near a near a 3 in the SE and hits NC from the south as a 2. Then rips right up 95. Gona be fun to track.
  8. PB-99
    Or the B ? after it comes out of the yards and turn back around in C / I. It's just off the belt tho. Unc will confirm
  9. PB-99
    That's the F train off the Belt right unc ?
  10. PB-99
    Keep a few things in mind with this early on. This reformed North of Hispaniola where it should have been shredded and it now starting to have some have some pretty healthy outflow. You have 29c in front of it with a ridge keeping it pinned , preventing it from recurving. So it's getting funneled into some favorable conditions over the next 48 hours. Then its up. The key for us does it strike S of OBX and come up as an inside runner which would weaken it or will not like the friction and want to stay off. If the models underestimate the strength in the SE you would want to root for it come in west of OBX because its forward motion would keep a good center intact if it made a B line for Islip.
  11. PB-99
  12. PB-99
    The water would allow this to strengthen all the way to OBX. So yes it weakens, that`s 27c not 29c water but it`s probably hauling. So the key is, is it weakening from a strong 2 or a weak 1 or a shredded out shell of itself or is it intact because of its forward speed ? Duno yet. But that WAR may not allow this to re-curve much , it may be coming NNE than NE
  13. PB-99
    Yes, but this will not be cut off from the flow. It`s the speed at which it comes N that could keep the east side intact all the way to LI. It`s early I agree.
  14. PB-99
    We are speaking about gusts tho. IDK man, that could track due N over some really warm water once off OBX and because of it`s speed not lose alot if it`s intact in the S/E. I guess we will know more after it gets away from Hispaniola.
  15. PB-99
    UKMET has a similar track.
  16. PB-99
    It`s a robust run, but it`s not like the UKMET isn`t seeing it.
  17. PB-99
    If this comes out of the SE after venting nicely, you can`t see 100 mph gusts on the east side ? if it comes up the slot ?
  18. PB-99
    The slot in up the E/C and not bending W It should slip between the WAR and the Trough
  19. PB-99
    It`s just model output. The Euro has a 2 in the S/E coming up pretty quickly. How much does it weaken on it`s way if the Euro is right ? I wouldn`t just ignore it.
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  24. PB-99
    This is not good for you
  25. PB-99
    The Euro is a 2
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