PB-99

Weeks away

The EPS and GEPS say 10/11 + Where are you seeing " weeks "

And the EPS crushes the ridge by day 10.

Canadian ensembles correct to even more trough in the N/E by day 11 and all the way through day 16.

I know you guys have a poster here that loves this model and didn`t know where to drop it. So I wanted to just drop it on in for ya.

.06

The Euro is way to warm at the BL. Most on the coast start as L Rain and then transition to L Snow between 0z and 3z. Little to no accumulation. I expect zero impact to the roads in and around the city and most coastal locals. There`s a good chance more snow falls for some with the snow showers tomorrow than does tonight ( I don`t expect many reports of an inch ).

I left and will never return.

The 1st part was not intentional , I was just trying to convey my points. But yes I thought it was a horrible 30 days with a mere 5 day break. I just think we are back in business between the 20 -25 as the start time

I didn`t know posting that the L/R is improving was akin to being angry and argumentative. Who knew.

I am not a member of usa and I will post my thoughts when they are in contrast with anyone`s and back it up. The warm pity party is coming to an end after day 10. That`s not a slight against anyone.

When you look at the SE ridge by day 10, look at it from a SD perspective. A light SE ridge in the means with the TPV flowing east of the Rockies means that low level cold air will undercut it. So you create a baroclinic zone from time to time that could work. In late Jan , it`s not about anomalies , look at the actual 850`s. Look at the actual 850`s on the WARM/RIDGE GEFS, after day 9 they are well S of you.

There is 0 anger when pointing out guidance.

Thank you sir.

Back on Dec 26, the Euro RIMM plots had this going into p4. This was seen in the L/R and when it was, you did not question it. Now any cold in the L/R is a " crapshoot " . There is absolutely no skill in chiding cold and pumping warmth even as the guidance is coming towards the 1 month of AN period ending. Anything " could " happen but why ignore the guidance, it`s not just model output, I explained above what the models are doing. Here`s the warm GFS see that heading away from 6 ? It pushes the vortex east of the Rockies , not into the east, it doesn`t have to yet it`s real deal cold air so it pushes on the ridge. Here`s the CFS seeing this going into p7 Here we are heading towards p7 after d 10 That is why you are seeing the push off the WC by the EPS. You winter`s over posters and nothing changes until Feb 15 goes against the guidance. I guess you can post it all you want , but it doesn`t match up with what the models are seeing

But the LR is fine when you post that we are going to loop back into p6 right ? lol Just stop .

I did not see an attempt to correct is false statement that the cold was delayed. you quickly posted a day 10 to day 8 fix. So I felt it was my obligation to let the posters know that the EPS did not delay anything. Don`t be sensitive.

@bluewave this the post you responded to. You posted a day 10 to day 8 change , when yesterday`s 12z was the 1st to correct ( that`s what he was alluding to and then the 0z run drove more trough into the N/E ) Jan 21 is day 15. The EPS did not delay the L/R. The EPS corrected again on day 11.

I am not starting arguments. I am just pointing out what the model actually did at 12z yesterday and 0z this morning that should have everyone aware that the EPS sped up the trough and did not delay it. Sorry man, when I am here I am factual not argumentative.

Don`t post that we corrected warmer in the LR when we did not. The LR is post day 10 and the models got colder at 12z yesterday and again at 0z You guys were talking about waiting until the 25th That`s not 8 days

This current 5 day period was picked out on Dec 26th , when there was nothing but a ridge in the east. I called this a 5 day window in the middle of the torch period that would correct in the means. I think @donsutherland1 will attest here. Monday morning we saw a light Clipper pass through , tonight some may see light accumulating snow and there is a chance of some snow showers tomorrow. And then we go back to another 7 hostile / AN days. Keep in mind 12 days ago the 5 day mean was a warm ridge in the east and that was broken down through analysis and the highlighted period from 12 days ago has verified really well. So what`s next ? Here is what is happening and why you are seeing the models rushing this back by the 20th- 25th . The negative in Canada is a well sourced piece of the TPV. It's been parked over W Canada for 2 weeks and will sit there for another 2. But once past day 11/ 12 or so the MJO will be heading away from p6 amd towards p7 and that will push the negative east of the Rockies. p7 by itself is not a cold p in the east but because the negative has such well sourced cold air with it and is so strong in the means its able to undercut the ridge in the SE. This is not a weak Pac driven negative that needs Canada to recycle, it's already the real McCoy. You can see the weakening ridge reflected in the lack of strength and it low SD from day 12 on. So the trough doesn't need to get into the east full bore from the 20- 25 the lack of resistance shoves the 0 line all the way down into the heartland and east into NC. In p7 s of the past you would cool then have to wait for p8, I believe because Canada is so cold it's allowing the low level cold air to seep further east than what a typical p7 usually does. After that I am like Don's point made yesterday, plus 1.5 SD moves into p4 during early Jan result in a rotation into p8 9x out of 10. And when that happens a real piece of the vortex could slide in.

For those who love the GFS, it wants to speed towards 7

This is from 2 days ago , the LR got colder in means overnight from day 12 on The correction started yesterday.

This is incorrect, Bluewave posted the difference between day 8 and day 10 ( 2 days ago ) . The EPS began to correct yesterday in the L/R The LR CORRECTED TO MORE TROUGH in the N/E in the L/R

It starts by day 11 not day 15. The SE ridge ridge is becoming muted by day 11 ( You will see some height rises on day 12 but that`s due to the EPS seeing LP coming off OBX and working it`s way to CC. The trough from this point forward drives out to the center of the CONUS. D 13- 15. Once that happens that SE ridge is gone. There is to much Vortex in your Hemisphere and once the MJO starts to race towards 7 and away from 6 , the response will be to push the negative E of the Rockies. The Canadian Ensembles are in the EPS camp. So I suspect the EPS could be a few days too fast and a return towards a better pattern by the 25th is here. The EPS does give you a hint of an EC storm on the 19th, but that`s too far to look at.