PB-99

So you want to focus on pressure differences between the Arctic and the mid latitudes but ignore the center of the ridge ? You think the AO is the only reason you got a blizzard on the EC ?

Where are the April 850`s ?

What about the raging positive EPO and Neg PNA , if you know what you`re looking at. It`s the Ridge sticking out over HB is the anomaly that you`re all concerned about

Jan 20 - 21 -22 are all BN and spend most of the 3 day period in the 20`s to low 30`s. So yes that`s a change. The warmest the actual 850`s get in the Northeast on the EPS post Jan 20 at hour 204 in plus 3. ( That`s not April ) . The anomalies show up like it`s a torch, because like I said you can`t use anomalies in late Jan, because they are cold so any AN " looks warm " but the actual surface is plus 5 for 3 days and that`s not cold. Unfortunately it is day 9 - 11 as the ridge hangs down off H/B. ( so that may blow the day 10 system ) . By day 12 the ridge retracts over H/B and the S branch is sending impulses out. That`s what the EPS shows today - I don`t think that sucks, but if you do , have at it.

lol The 850s ?

850 anomalies hooked up out of HB for 3 days. While your surface temps on the 20/21/22 are in the 20`s. We do flip on the 20th. I guess that transient H/B ridge will give you a week of plus 5 , but using 850 anomalies in late Jan man ? Esch The response to the AAM spike looks real. But that`s plus 5 for 3 days. Then once that rolls back , SW after SW should develop. That ridging is your friend, it what will develop into the block Hudson Bay. When was the last time we saw a 5 day mean like that ?

p7 and p8 will argue for the trough to be forced into the SE as we roll into Feb. If you can get the ridge to stick around in Canada, you are really going to be in business. The 12z GEFS has roughly 3 to 4 SWs coming under the block over the next 15. Huge oppo.

Day 9 / 10 threats come and go but this has been a period that really bares watching. The ridge over H/B argues for anything that tries to cut should die and a secondary should come up off OBX. It is the 1st period inside the pattern change that should be " watched " but do not be surprised if there`s more than one threat rolling out of the S Branch with those high heights over Hudson Bay.

2 weeks starting the 20th please.

Not being disrespectful , just saying posting the pattern wasn`t changing on the 20th was not supported by the guidance. What a pattern change means are probably different things to different people. If Brian doesn`t get at least 6 inches of snow over the next 2 weeks the pattern will have not changed

Phase 7 in Jan is good for you. Great for the S/E. I continue to agree with Timmy, we are going into p8 and then the wave could fade.

OMG dude, If you go from plus 15 to minus 5 in late Jan, do you not realize what a major flip that is ? Your N splits are 38 / 28 , so you go from 53 / 43 to 33 /23 with a trough in the means where the ridge was for 30 days and a great 500 with a " potential " stormy look. That`s a major flip. There`s no warmth coming back at all, you will prob see 3 days of 40 +degree highs due to a ridge extending out of Canada in response to an AAM spike. Do you know what that ridge is ? It`s your Hudson Bay block for what`s coming. It is what you will need to get 1 or 2 snowstorms in the pattern. Because that`s the risk with that 500. HB blocking with the trough cutting underneath. You couldn`t ask for anything more and that look was being set up here while others were certain the ridge would not be kicked out. It is the look you want and that is what I always believed the set up would look.

So far so good. And yes last Jan was a bust. But I think you will like Jan 20 - Feb 20. If I am wrong, I owe you luger`s

We will likely go into the COD after 8 or 1 ish and then you are left with that current state until something else takes over. It`s why the Jan 20 - Feb 20 idea is what I put out. It could end 5 days early or extend , but the 2 weeks from the Jan 20 date are well supported. Including the KU in the pattern I promised you.

The product is garbage. The CFS has been the most consistent , they have agreed with the vp200`s and Roundy plots this entire time. You don`t need a - AO/ - NAO to get cold. There`s a piece of the TPV sitting in N/A and the tropical forcing is allowing the trough to develop in the SE This is as meaningless as posting 850mb anomalies in late Jan to make a 2m case

Go back and read the 1st 20 pages in here in regards to the MJO, the flip , the 20th etc and get back to us. And how is this for seeing the month of Dec ,this was my Dec call made on Nov 11. Right down to the snow in early December , the back end warmth to the month The plus 1 for Dec was my forecast , we finished plus .8 I am not sure dragging my skill into this considering my year is wise. I think I have the period Jan 20 plus spot on so far

Where do I begin

Yes I am arrogantly telling posters who said the SE ridge would be there on the 20th that they were wrong. I am telling posters who said the MJO would fade after p6 that they are wrong. I am telling people that denied the pattern would change on Jan 20th posted in here 15 day away , they were wrong. Do you not see where the guidance has come too, do you think continuing to play the def dumb and blind card in here is a good look. Because making believe the guidance isn`t a complete flip after Jan 20th is just silly.

Unreal. You don`t expect energy met`s in the private sector to that but when you claim winter is over 3 weeks ago, so I guess you better look for anything to help your story.

Dude they are a joke , that`s a model run difference and it`s all driven by the day 10 ridging across the lakes Here`s the actual day 7- 14 , does that look like a torch in late Jan ?

The Euro rains to Albany at the end. That`s how far N the warm punch gets

You are still in p5. This was never a snowstorm for the coast. Pattern changes after the 20th

0 from CNJ into the 5 boroughs and across LI. S winds will do that when the center cuts to Toronto. Looks right.

The SE ridge is gone on the backside of this. The 20th. This ushers in the change that has been spoken about. As far as this system these always warm on the coast as you get closer as the H slips NE.

The EPS takes the ULL and digs it into the OHV , which would get us home. The GFS over amplifies the N branch ( which it likes to do ) and drives it through the lakes and that would pull the heights back. And I agree being 12 day away that`s why I just left it loose for now.