PB-99

So far that is going into 7 and is spot on. ( touches and 8 and goes into the null ) . Unlike you guys thinking it was stuck in 6 and then looping back into 4/5/6 last week. I may go back and bump those for ya. That said, I told you this pos in H/B would force the low under and it`s doing just that. I think you posted there was " no cold air until Montreal " ? what a whiff.

This is a function of Low Placement , where did their cold air come from ? Santa. Our air mass 75 miles S is different ? If the GFS is driving the ULL too far N then this would come south a bit. So far this is a major interior snowstorm.

I just wanted to touch on the MJO here and what I opined on about for close 2 weeks ago in this thread. I am only showing this to make the point of how bad the GEFS/BC rimm plot behaved from 2 weeks out. So yes there are many who are worried about the MJO coming back out in p6 and I am not here to debate that yet because the Vp 200`s do not look very good for early Feb. However when you are buying what the guidance is telling you today in the very L/R, it's important to see what I was saying before. Here was the CFS 2 weeks ago, I inked that correction which were based on the VP 200 anomalies, and here is the CFS yesterday, You can see the CFS never gave up on p7. Here is latest CFS , it looks to touch 8 and die just like the GEFSBC Now here is today`s GEFS / BC, it came around to the CFS now sees p7 and touches p8. 2 weeks ago the GEFS RIMM Plots had many believing this had no chance at p7 let along p8. Again , these did not match the vp200 or Roundy plots. There is nothing to discuss this was a really poor job seeing the wave moving through. So I am just saying before you run out and buy a pair of shorts , wait to see if this new wave the models see does in fact emerge. Again I am not saying a p6 forecast is wrong ( p6 in Feb is a torch ) I am saying don't go rushing in head 1st and buy it. Based on it`s miss from 2 weeks out I can say with any confidence where this goes after the initial wave collapses.

Possible. I think you and I will tho.

Is that your call ? As in totally over ?

I hope there`s a next storm !

I was only pointing out the correction it made from Chicago 2 days ago to off the Delmarva.

Worse than that you bull$%RT^Y&U*I and got caught

These are posts that make this place look misinformed

Dude, I said Hudson Valley vs a cutter to Chicago, you posted no cold air until Maine. The Euro is in the 20`s N and W

Why are you posting GFS surface temps with a different evolution Euro, are you high ? You posted no cold air, while the O line on the Euro is into NNJ and temps are in the mid 20`s in the HV LOL Oh Brian

Temps are in the mid 20s in the H/V

Did you bother to look at the surface map ? It`s in the 20`s in NYC at hour 216 At 222 it`s plus 1 at 850 and - 1 at 925 This just went from a low to Chicago to one off the Delmarva with 8 days to go. I would keep an eye on it, it`s different than what this was doing yesterday

Now the Interior is close , it`s not always about NYC. 2 days ago it was Chicago

HELLO THERE

@Enigma if this is right

The GEM and GEFS keep this alive. However all the LR guidance has been terrible so I would really wait this year for the surfaces to respond and be close to being believable. But significant, I would hold off on that for now.

This is your typical 500mb response to p8 in Feb. It`s all you can ask for. It does not have to guarantee snow, nothing does , but if you want a favorable 500 in Feb you want p8

He was only speaking about the MJO going into p8. Most here didn`t think it would go there, but you have the guidance, Timmy and Tom agreeing that we prob go into p8. Can`t just stick that aside. It`s not always about snow.

The guidance still suggest that we go into p8 and then collapse The CFS has been the most consistent while most RIMMS crashed after p6, the CFS never gave up p7 and now continues into p8 The Vp 200`s match the CFS

So here is what I expected from 2 weeks ago that we would go from this, to this, Temp wise that`s a def flip at 2m I also expected that we would not get stuck in p4/ 5/ 6 earlier this month like some of the models said , nor would we get stuck in p6 That also looks do be correct The Vp 200`s match the CFS yesterday So what happened after this ? Day 6 to 12 in response to a spike in the AAM stuck a massive ridge over Hudson Bay. Plus 3 over 5 days in late Jan isn`t exactly a torch and I wouldn`t break out the shorts, but these warmer spikes usually outperform. So right in the middle of the return of the 20th, and the pushing away of the SE ridge a ridge in Canada shows up, go figure. Do you believe the CFS as we head into Feb Or the GEPS ? Or the EPS which is following the MJO back into p6. Feb has always been my best winter month and I wanted to begin the period on the 20th. The 5 day period threw some dynamite on the fire for my start, but all is not lost yet IMO

Ah so this is where you ripped " the 500`s look like April " post from . You should at least give these guys credit if you`re going to lift their material and drop it away. The EPS blows up in the 11- 15 because it may be looping the MJO back into p6 and that`s not where i think it`s going. Credit @Allsnow, he was the 1st I saw say this. So now I know where you come to lift others ideas. Tisk Tisk.

I see the actual 0 line down into N/C after that ridge pulls back. It`s slightly BN and in late Jan it`s cold enough if you build a ridge over H/B. That terrible PAC sends out POS tilted waves. I am not going to change your mind , just showing what I see man.

Here is what the EPS is showing at the surface. You flipped out of a huge SE ridge into a trough in the S/E That`s a pattern change, it doesn`t mean one or both get don`t kicked OTS , but looking at that map you may be wishing for a SE ridge.

Sorry dude, I thought you meant hamburgers. Clearly my bad