PB-99

The real departures in the period are a result of higher night time low temps. It`s a week of 40 - 42 with low temps in the low 30`s at night and not the normal mid 20`s. The day time temps on the EPS are not warm tho. Just warm enough because it`s PAC air and it modifies quickly under what looks like a deep trough.

There`s a piece day 8 -10 coming into the flow. We would really benefit for some more wave spacing between the day 8 and day 9 EC systems. We need that to delay about 24 hours to even have a shot because this comes rolling in for 2/3 days.

Maybe I can salvage the Feb forecast. The issue will be if the 1st 10 days get really far ahead the back 18 will not be able to erase it. It was the only month D-M I went below.

Can we get back there in about a week on the Ry / Plots Early Feb ?

I don`t like the look of that at all. Soooo many robust members into 5 and then 6 here man.

Anthony the pos PNA is mitigated by that Neg in Alaska , the air that is being being forced through W Canada is PAC air, it warms Canada.The PNA is not connected to the Arctic region.

Obv too fast, it does not happen that quickly but it`s not that far off from where the models are close too. FWIW, it still doesn`t work for us. Bad air mass, but it`s not like it went back to a ridge in the S/E. The trough did show up, however Canada wrecked the entire idea.

Hey man, you have been spot in here. I don`t care what Negative`s show up in the lakes and N/E in the L/R if you don`t eject the Vortex out of Alaska, you are just seeding a trough with crud air.

I don`t think he realizes that when I said that we would go into 7 / 8 the MJO forecast was to circle in 6 and people bought it. I mean when I said 7 / 8 this was the RIMM forecast And as you said this is what has occurred. I think they should go back and ask the posters why didn`t the MJO get stuck in p6 like they thought, but they will not. Sorry that`s a much better forecast than the idea that this would loop in p6 2 weeks ago in here. Sorry they didn`t get the response due to other factors, but that call was not the problem, nor was it incorrect considering what the RIMM plots showed. Weenies. The new forecast is to loop this back into 1 and 2 based on the Roundy Plots. But again, even though the new CFS RIMM`s are too progressive this morning, it still see a rotation into p8 , wasn`t like we made it up. BTW, the CFS doesn`t see the temp Kelvin in p6 , I think it`s wrong, but others most def see`s what the Roundy Plots see in 2 weeks a weak signal back in 1 and 2 . And far as flipping around the 20th, some should go look at the departures from Jan 1 Jan 18 and the departures over the last 4 days, the SE ridge was erased like I said, the problem is it`s all temporary because of the AAM spike that NO ONE SAW coming.

Yes since Dec 22 and that will continue into early FEB. btw, it`s day 10 - 15 and it matches the GEFS.

Relentless

When you start a FEB thread be sure to lead off with this.

Imagine fussing over p8 for 2 weeks and then it goes into every p but, good grief. Maybe Tom and his mid Feb call takes hold. Feb was my best month, but the 1st 10 days torch.

Tim, why the quick wave in 6, is that a real signal on the Roundy plots ?

I will miss phase 8 by that much from 12 days away when the RIMM`s were circling in p6, but the wave is collapsing so I will call that a BUST. This is what was the GEFS forecast 2 weeks ago when some thought this would just circle back into 4/5/6, I would hope they would tell you they busted as well. But you are unlikely to see that. I said we would go into p7 and p8. It doesn`t matter as others have pointed out, the MJO is not the sole factor and even if we got into p8, the pattern is so misaligned as Tom and Chris pointed out, it would not have mattered. Here is where we have been in Jan, the wave did come across but ultimately dies. We did get a nice 5 day flip out of it, 2 inches of snow this past weekend and the interior along 84 and points N are in for a nice concrete Snowstorm. ( Not what I thought ). The idea that this weekend`s storm would cut under the block will be correct and for those along 84 and even N and W of 80 and 287 you will accumulate. (Again not what I thought ). My Jan call was plus 1 and that will turn out horrible. ( Again not what I thought ). After that passes there`s another 2 week break so when we total up Dec 20 - Feb 20 , it will look like a non- winter. The Yankees over/under is 101.5, let`s hope Vegas get`s that right.

I see the HP you see working into Alaska on D 15. Let`s hope that`s right.

The EPS is closer to plus 5. The STJ is cutting under a block, it works for the interior. Those 500`s are not winters over for those posters.

I agree with the 5th, the trough digs into the OHV on the GEFS. I just think that 500 is very snowy for the ski resorts New England and some here in the interior.

Day 9 - 16 Plus 2 to 3 F

There`s no torch on the GEFS through it`s 15 days. It`s plus 3 to 5 day in the day 5 - 12 the period and in late Jan , it`s AN but no torch. Here is how you end

If this 10 day mean verifies that has a very good shot. The GEFS is not warm in the L/R. That`s a snowy pattern for the interior.

The Ski resorts will be back in business

The center placement is bad regardless but you can see some Valley`s and Peaks here represented nicely here. Long duration event at the ski resorts as they upslope. That`s a nice interior snowstorm.