Upton:
"Thus there is a concern as these
environmental parameters max out late in the night and into early
Saturday morning that a fine line of convection develops as the
front and max forcing coincides with the anomalous moisture rich
environment. The potential is there for lower top convection with a
struggle to get higher instability this time of year, with the low
top convection possibly triggering a very short round of severe
weather. There is some backing of the lowest wind in the column.
Thus, a spin up with higher speed shear and some directional shear
in the lowest 2 km, and especially 1 km remains a concern for some
short lived, but intense convection approaching Saturday morning.
With more of an isothermal profile in the column, the concern is
that with the front approaching mixing extends lower down in the
column resulting in strong to damaging wind gusts along the boundary."