George BM

The Tennessee tornado becomes the first violent tornado of the year in the US.

Me thinks some get too heated over things that don't affect them.

Clearing.

A low risk of some thunder and perhaps some gusty winds tomorrow depending on the amount of sunshine we can get. Low-level lapse rates look steep... with mid-level lapse rates looking somewhat steep as well. And FWIW... SPC doesn't even have us in a 10% thunder risk for tomorrow so...

Drink safely!

Meteorological Spring is upon us!

If the surface low of that mid next week system can track just off to our northwest lots of models have some impressive wind fields. CAPE would be the main question though mainly because of warmer low/mid-level temperatures... and also climo in general (it's still on the early side)... Though the February 7th system probably has a few choice words for me about that "climo" statement.

They made a reference to that event in the 1630z update.

Day 2 MRGL wind in southern zones.

@Kmlwx Indeed I am. June 23rd is around the corner.

Knowing our luck... probably. My ideal pattern over the next couple months, say through June, would be for this pattern to last through early May. Then the NAO will tank to strongly negative from say May 10th onward while a ridge builds into western Canada over a trough in the western US (-EPO/-PNA) allowing for a ridge to build over the southern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the nation east of the Rockies while a trough gets locked in between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay in response to the ridge nosing into western Canada(-EPO) AND the ridge over Greenland (-NAO). Think May 30-31, 1998 but through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic instead.

I just hope that we can keep this general pattern over the next couple of months.

This is only based off of what I personally have observed in these parts. So this is in absolutely no way expert analysis. I've noticed that the few times that we can actually do "well enough" and get close to maximizing our potential with low CAPE/high shear convective events is whenever we have a trough that tilts negative to our west with a strengthening surface low moving up the Appalachian Mountains. April 6, 2017 comes to mind. Also December 21, 2018 which probably no one remembers because the storms from this "event" only produced some brief 40-50+mph wind gusts and small hail from NVA into north/central MD and was more localized than this mornings event... but it was still at least something for late Dec and the wind profiles were weaker for that "event". This is assuming that CAD erodes quickly enough of course. I know... this is a very small sample size I'm sure there might be a few that I didn't mention. People on here who know more than me, what's your take?

@yodaI see that you're finally up.

Maybe we get our dues all at once? ...

I thought we had a coastal that looked like this in late January 2017 with a very similar setup that did indeed end up being all rain. I may have the year wrong though. Monday January 23, 2017. It was the one year anniversary of the 2016 blizzard and there was moderate to heavy rain with fairly strong winds through the first half of the day. Far NW areas changed over to frozen (mainly sleet iirc) and got some minor accumulations. And also, yeah, I remember a NWS disco out of ME or New England with very "irritated sounding" wording about it being late January that year yet not being able to get much in the way of any snow. ETA: Could have sworn I was in banter... sorry about that.

@psuhoffman I don't have anything to add but thank you so much for the time and effort put into this!

Last place!

BWI: 50.7" DCA: 36.9" IAD: 52.7" RIC: 29.9" SBY: 32.1"

Congratulations!

Anyway, congratulations @yoda.

IAD actually hit 33F.

Update: IAD: 10/25 DCA: 11/03 BWI: 10/25 RIC: 11/03 Oct Precip: 24.76"

IAD: 1/20 DCA: 1/20 BWI: 1/20 RIC: 1/20 Oct Precip: 99.76"

I'm guessing you don't have much light pollution where you are to be able to notice that detail? ETA: 27/15 IAD.