George BM

Great news! May you and your relatives get through this time.

A pre-climo NW flow regime w/ potentially steep mid-level lapse rates... We watch.

Warning... it's within one hour. Northeastern areas will see the best sunset conditions.

Morning AFD from LWX. It's not often you hear this mentioned. The 12Z KIAD sounding has winds 35-40KTS in the boundary layer this morning. The inversion busted rapidly by 13Z across the region, with numerous wind gusts between 30-40MPH in the western suburbs of the Balt/Wash Metro Areas. Winds will temper a bit this afternoon as the pressure gradient aloft slackens. Inverted V soundings approaching super adiabatic, along with gusty winds and dry surface conditions, you might see a dust devil or two in the Shenandoah Valley during the midday hours.

This! It looked even more unreal in person. Mother Nature can truly be amazing and humble the biggest weenies! This was one of my favorite pictures from the chase.

I got totally and utterly PUMMELED here! The snow started in earnest here during the morning coming down moderately heavily until about midday when it got dark and wind gusts suddenly kicked up to the 50 to 60 mph range out of the north with temperatures quickly falling from near freezing to the upper teens! The snow was blinding and I could not even see the end of my normally sized and not long driveway at several instances all afternoon! The snowfall rates had to be at least 4 if not 5+ inches per hour at times. Also, yes I heard thunder several times throughout the afternoon. I ended up with 25.2" of pure crystal joy by the time the snow tapered off near sunset. This was my favorite blizzard and I have no idea how no thread was made for it . Meanwhile it's still fairly windy here today with 30-40 mph wind gusts. How much snow did you end up with over there and did you experience the same crazy rates, winds and thunder/lightning?

Just one of at least 11 EF5s during the 2020 Super Outbreak. This is near Fredericksburg, VA. I'm the blue bot facing the tornado. This tornado was moving east at 60 to 65mph at this time.

@WxWatcher007 You and your family will be in my thoughts and prayers. Keep safe and well friend.

A chilly light drizzly rain.

What's your go to IPA during this time AND have your kids tried to get some of that good stuff?... Go!

Thank for the reply. Yeah the latest long-range HRRR has some loltastic soundings. I mean check out this uncontaminated sounding below. I mean 3,000+ J/kg MLCAPE, LI near -10 with effective bulk-shear around 100kts. Lol!

Now this is not for our region (SW of Chicago)... AND it's just one run from last night's 0z NAM at range but... it's not too often that you see 100+ knot EBWD with 1,000+ J/kg MLCAPE. (Also, please ignore the fact that I accidentally called these files as the 3kNAM... the images below are actually from the lower-res NAM) The following is just me thinking out loud. I'm not making assumptions about the severe threat over yonder. I wonder if 1,500+ J/kg mlcape and LIs of -5 to -6 would be enough instability for storms to not get ripped apart by this kind of shear verbatim (Is CAPE fat enough?). Yeah 1,500 J/kg mlcape is not all that weak but... that shear though... Of course I'm not trying to take away from the high-ceiling that storms will have should they take advantage of their environment. @high risk @csnavywx thoughts on this? Also I realize now that I have a problem with using too many ellipses and parentheses.

Yeah. March 3rd is getting a tornadic streak lately.

The Tennessee tornado becomes the first violent tornado of the year in the US.

Clearing.

A low risk of some thunder and perhaps some gusty winds tomorrow depending on the amount of sunshine we can get. Low-level lapse rates look steep... with mid-level lapse rates looking somewhat steep as well. And FWIW... SPC doesn't even have us in a 10% thunder risk for tomorrow so...

If the surface low of that mid next week system can track just off to our northwest lots of models have some impressive wind fields. CAPE would be the main question though mainly because of warmer low/mid-level temperatures... and also climo in general (it's still on the early side)... Though the February 7th system probably has a few choice words for me about that "climo" statement.

They made a reference to that event in the 1630z update.

Day 2 MRGL wind in southern zones.

@Kmlwx Indeed I am. June 23rd is around the corner.

Knowing our luck... probably. My ideal pattern over the next couple months, say through June, would be for this pattern to last through early May. Then the NAO will tank to strongly negative from say May 10th onward while a ridge builds into western Canada over a trough in the western US (-EPO/-PNA) allowing for a ridge to build over the southern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the nation east of the Rockies while a trough gets locked in between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay in response to the ridge nosing into western Canada(-EPO) AND the ridge over Greenland (-NAO). Think May 30-31, 1998 but through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic instead.

I just hope that we can keep this general pattern over the next couple of months.

This is only based off of what I personally have observed in these parts. So this is in absolutely no way expert analysis. I've noticed that the few times that we can actually do "well enough" and get close to maximizing our potential with low CAPE/high shear convective events is whenever we have a trough that tilts negative to our west with a strengthening surface low moving up the Appalachian Mountains. April 6, 2017 comes to mind. Also December 21, 2018 which probably no one remembers because the storms from this "event" only produced some brief 40-50+mph wind gusts and small hail from NVA into north/central MD and was more localized than this mornings event... but it was still at least something for late Dec and the wind profiles were weaker for that "event". This is assuming that CAD erodes quickly enough of course. I know... this is a very small sample size I'm sure there might be a few that I didn't mention. People on here who know more than me, what's your take?

@yodaI see that you're finally up.

Maybe we get our dues all at once? ...