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George BM

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Everything posted by George BM

  1. George BM
    That's good, thank you.
  2. George BM
    If it won't bother you too much could you post a link to the 5 min obs please?
  3. George BM
    While it definitely doesn't look like much atm I wouldn't completely sleep on Monday. With increasing cape and modest shear if a remnant MCV moves in from the west it could spark something. Again, it's definitely not much atm but something to watch... perhaps.
  4. George BM
    Oh hell yeah! Those patterns brings around a lower risk of my yard being in the middle of Splitsville (as well as the negatively tilted trough pattern). It needs to come with deep-layer flow AOA 50KTS as well. Give me an 1893 Atlantic Hurricane Season repeat, an October 1878, or a Hazel. October 15, 1954 was an absolutely marvelous day in the area.
  5. George BM
    Psssst... We abscond the 18z hrdps.
  6. George BM
    Random note: This Thursday marks 6 years since the immediate area was last under a moderate risk.
  7. George BM
    If only we could get a Bill 2015 track repeat but with a very powerful southeast ridge in place. An example: Say, a category 1 landfall near Houston, TX Tuesday night, June 18, 2019. Then the fast-flow around the ridge combined with a shortwave moving in from the north slingshots it to this region by Thursday afternoon June 20, 2019 as a ~990mb low bringing backing SSE winds and upper 70's/80F dewpoints and mid 90'sF air temperatures yielding mlcape ~4000J/kg despite warm temperature profiles aloft with 50-60+kt EBWD and 250-350+ m2/s2 effective shear bringing a goodly severe threat to the region. Sorry. Weenie mode getting carried away. But you hopefully get my drift.
  8. George BM
    1893 tropical system tracks redux with a Hazel and 1878 track thrown in with mid 30's Celsius water temps off the SE coast and in the Gulf of Mexico please... pretty please with 22 cherries on top.
  9. George BM
    Happy Eleven Year Anniversary weenies!
  10. George BM
    Sure that wasn't 2014?
  11. George BM
    Hopefully while occasionally getting into an enhanced 65+kt mid-level "ring of fire" flow. Epic Derecho train FTW!... And then the waters off the southeast coast and in the GOM can rise into the low/mid 30's celsius for peak hurricane season while we get a 1893 repeat in storm tracks. dot dot dot 68/50 at IAD with 20+mph wind gusts as of 10:37am edt Monday, June 3, 2019
  12. George BM
    BWI: 101F DCA: 104F IAD: 103F RIC: 105F SBY: 100F
  13. George BM
    UPDATE: BWI: 111F DCA: 114F IAD: 113F RIC: 115F SBY: 110F
  14. George BM
    Quite tasty June Banter can be.
  15. George BM
    Happy Meteorological Summer weenies!
  16. George BM
    This afternoon actually seemed somewhat similar to though obviously nowhere near as widespread (wind gusts only into the 30s mph IMBY ) as the June 4, 2008 mid-afternoon event with a CAPE tongue through the region and decent enough 40-50+kt EB shear with storms decently strengthening as they got east of the mountains and into the metro region. Time of the day was similar as well though the June 4, 2008 event had more outages areawide if I remember correctly. The really impressive stuff was obviously more localized with this event.
  17. George BM
    45-55kt effective bulk shear as of 17z across the region.
  18. George BM
    It's also killing off the MCS way too fast.
  19. George BM
    Yeap. Our last moderate risk was actually a while ago June 13, 2013. (6 years ago)
  20. George BM
    Latest 12z long-range HRRR has developed storms in WV with storms also dropping towards the MD/PA line by 21z tomorrow.
  21. George BM
    A temperature of 105F with a dewpoint temp of 85F will give you a @Subtropics heaven and @wxdude64 killing 140F heat index.
  22. George BM
    FWIW (not much at this range) check out the "decent" squall line(s) on sim reflectivity through the entire region on the 0z wrf suite. Obviously far out at the end of their range though.
  23. George BM
    Congratulations on the new job! Take care of yourself and don't be a stranger here.
  24. George BM
    4th of July will be rockin'.
  25. George BM
    BWI: 108F (September 25th) DCA: 110F (September 25th) IAD: 109F (September 25th) RIC: 112F (September 25th) SBY: 107F (September 25th)
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