Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Shower activity ahead of the main frontal convection will limit
instability and heating across northern and central VA northward.
However, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s are forecast,
resulting in SBCAPE less than 250 J/kg across northern VA into the
northern Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Ahead of the front, backed
southeasterly winds in the vicinity of a pre-frontal trough will
result in effective shear values around 30-40 kt. This should allow
for some organized bowing segments within the QLCS and a few
damaging wind gusts will be possible as convection quickly moves
east/northeast. Strong wind profiles as low as around 1000 feet,
and backed southeast surface winds will lead to large, curved
hodographs. If pockets of greater instability occur and
surface-based convection develops, a weak/brief tornado cannot be
ruled out across northern VA toward coastal MD....