George BM

@Kmlwx Indeed I am. June 23rd is around the corner.

Knowing our luck... probably. My ideal pattern over the next couple months, say through June, would be for this pattern to last through early May. Then the NAO will tank to strongly negative from say May 10th onward while a ridge builds into western Canada over a trough in the western US (-EPO/-PNA) allowing for a ridge to build over the southern 1/2 to 2/3rds of the nation east of the Rockies while a trough gets locked in between the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay in response to the ridge nosing into western Canada(-EPO) AND the ridge over Greenland (-NAO). Think May 30-31, 1998 but through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic instead.

I just hope that we can keep this general pattern over the next couple of months.

Yes. I’ve actually seen your work occasionally for the past few years now. As for the June 23 tornado/derecho event I actually posted a radar image of it at the very beginning of this thread as the event was getting underway locally. Finally, I should think that you were around for it. But I may be mistaken... it was a time of year where lots of people travel after all.

Well see how things look after our back to back HECSs on March 29th and April 1st. Also on a slightly (emphasis on slightly) more serious note... I'm really looking forward to your map of the June 23rd Tornado Outbreak/Derecho Blowdown event in this region. You are very good at what you do. Many of us always thought that the 2012 derecho was as extreme as it gets severe-wise around here. Boy was that wrong in a big way... In other words... yeah I'm not winning.

12/11: 0.3" 12/16: 0.3" 1/07: 2.4" 1/18: 0.4" Total as of 2/21/2020: 3.4"

Never been. It probably didn’t help that I was an incoming freshman at 28 years old and had to retake 20 credits from the classes that I ditched back in ‘81. Wait... you're all the way up there?! ... Also, happy 1,000th to me!

Funny. My car alignment actually IS a little off to the right. ... I'm sure most people do have a slight alignment issue with there car though. So probably not to big of a coincidence to have it mentioned.

In other words... a fairly decent tropical hit. I abscond.

Wallops Island launch will take place at 3:21pm est. Less than 15 minutes from now. ... Assuming it's not scrubbed again of course.

Not going to lie... you threw me in a loop for a second there... until I read the end of the post. Yeah 5 years ago at this moment the heaviest part of that snow squall was getting ready to wind down here. It was my favorite minor snow event here for sure.

Wallops Island launch in less than two minutes 5:39pm. ETA: Scrubbed.

PSA from Captain Obvious: Which of course makes sense because the sun angle is the same now as it is it during the first few days of November. Fin Currently the temperature is 49F under sunny skies. Dewpoint: 24F IAD

I definitely notice the weird distortion effect sometimes. I also sometimes dream that there is more than one "sun" in the sky creating several weird shadows everywhere. The main pattern, though, that I have with any weather related dreams is... generally really not too much different from weather weenie life in these parts. I'd dream about an incoming significant weather event (whether severe, blizzard, tropical... but I guess mostly severe), I'd become very excited about it and then I'd wake up... I really need to become a better lucid dreamer.

Was there any thunder with the snow? Also, what would you guesstimate the snowfall rates to be?

Those radar echo tops are over 6kft high.

Incoming.

This is only based off of what I personally have observed in these parts. So this is in absolutely no way expert analysis. I've noticed that the few times that we can actually do "well enough" and get close to maximizing our potential with low CAPE/high shear convective events is whenever we have a trough that tilts negative to our west with a strengthening surface low moving up the Appalachian Mountains. April 6, 2017 comes to mind. Also December 21, 2018 which probably no one remembers because the storms from this "event" only produced some brief 40-50+mph wind gusts and small hail from NVA into north/central MD and was more localized than this mornings event... but it was still at least something for late Dec and the wind profiles were weaker for that "event". This is assuming that CAD erodes quickly enough of course. I know... this is a very small sample size I'm sure there might be a few that I didn't mention. People on here who know more than me, what's your take?