George BM

You don't like the rush of wind and snowflakes hitting your face?

I remember talk about jebwalking music during the January 2019 event. So probably around there somewhere.

Do, however, consider taking a peak outside late tonight (1am-4am).

What would be your estimate of the maximum instanteous snowfall rate that you got during that storm? Also, how much snow did you end up with in total?

Dec 7,9,14,25/2020: T Dec 16-17, 2020: 2.1" Dec 18, 2020: 0.2" Jan 5, 2021: T Jan 20, 2021: 0.1" Jan 25-26, 2021: 0.2" Total as of Jan 26, 2021: 2.6"

Welp. 5:34pm. Is it snowing there yet?

Getting ice pellets in Herndon, VA.

Are you south of the Dulles Toll Road or to the north?

Not an expert opinion but that line of convection across Kentucky looks more organized than most CAMs have it which may signify stronger WAA just ahead of it which may help us get a stronger thump.

Hopefully the TPV can trend a bit further south so we will have a shot at some snow squalls come Friday.

Do you mean the TGI Friday’s in the Worldgate Centre with the AMC movie theater by the large Marriot hotel? If so, that’s basically my neighborhood. Is that AMC Worldgate theater the one you went to?

Hey welcome aboard! Models are definitely honing in on a storm around that general area a week from now. However, it's a week out with another storm coming a few days before (Monday/Tuesday) that could affect the Thursday storm. Things will definitely change around on the models between now and then. Hopefully by game time it looks like that but displaced about 100 miles further NW. I'll let more experienced posters like @CAPE and @psuhoffman answer you though. I hope that this helps! BTW, I assume that from your screenname you are from Leesburg, VA?

Dec 7,9,14,25/2020: T Dec 16-17, 2020: 2.1" Dec 18, 2020: 0.2" Jan 5, 2021: T Jan 20, 2021: 0.1" Total as of Jan 20, 2021: 2.4"

That's 0.1" of snow/graupel on the day.

Well that was a surprisingly decent snow/graupel shower just now. Briefly heavy and it has whitened the grass.

I had a brief and very light snow/graupel shower around 2:30pm (Herndon).

Not this winter so far OR last winter. Last time was early 2019 IIRC.

23F if I'm not mistaken.

Okay, gotcha. I would still go with the regular scheduled programming for our region. Now if those 10" events come in the form of Jan 25, 1985 type snow squalls, though... eh it would still be close for me. Conventional HECSs would be nice to experience once in a while... though I do love me some snowy severe thunderstorm QLCSs.

Well you wouldn't want to miss out on future HECSs/BECSs for two 10" events that would be the last snow we ever experience living here in our lives leading to constant depression due to "lack of blue" for you for the rest of your life... would you?

Now this only focuses on the long range HRRR but... last nights 0z run had surface winds backing to SE for tomorrow afternoon as a surface trough/low developed and move through the region (probably helped low-level convergence). The 12z does not do that and has surface winds keeping a westerly component for the afternoon (W to SW).

Just an observation: The 0z HRRR actually backs surface winds to southeasterly during the day on Saturday as it develops a surface trough/low in the mountains that moves east across the region during the afternoon/evening. This probably enhanced the convection this run.

^ @high risk is a great red-tagger to follow if you want to know about any sneaky convective potential.

Potentially of the more "convective" nature.

I'd be quite worried if time wasn't moving, actually.