George BM

*Puts weenie hat on* All the rain that fell to the west of the mountains yesterday will help keep dewpoints elevated in those areas when mixing occurs with the strong June sun today. *Takes weenie hat off* But seriously though how much of a factor is that? I'd thing that today's models take this into account?

Check it out now. I think we become 2-0-0 later today.

Well if can can speed things up anyway. Tomorrow doesn't look to be plagued by clouds looking at CAM soundings.

Oh wow. I'm actually a little surprised that the line hasn't fallen apart yet as they cross over the Blue Ridge. I saw the meso as well. Well see what transpires over the next few hours... not that I'm expecting hurricane-force winds.

My current thinking, looking at more sufficient CAPE still being to the west atm, is that it will (if not die out) at least dwindle to some midday/early afternoon showers for this area with additional convection developing further upstream. That potential additional convection would probably be our best shot... at least for western zones (your place and westwards) where conditions are most favorable for stronger storms. Some storms could certainly slip further east into the metros but CAPE would be dwindling as they do leading to a weakening trend. But yes. That current cluster is interesting looking indeed.

If we can get the tongue of higher CAPE that some CAMs are hinting at to stay over our region tomorrow instead of being shunted further east, then I'd think that we could see some interesting storm modes (splitting supercells?) given the long straight hodographs.

There's a SLGT risk for severe wind along and west of the blue ridge mountains where instability is most likely to be highest (MLCAPE >1000J/kg) along with modest bulk shear. Areas immediately west of I-95 are in a MRGL risk.

Radarscope shows that a rogue lightning bolt struck between Jessup and Severn MD... but a lot closer Jessup (~3/4 of the way to Jessup from Severn).

So... about thirty minutes ago I had a cicada land near my left wrist and stick its drinking stick into that region to start drinking. I assume that this is normal cicada behavior and has happened to many of you?

30-35 dbz returns over my house this morning. Two days ago when I was mowing my lawn a whole bunch of them flew from the small tree that I was circling ( there were hundreds of them covering the tree trunk) and it started raining. For the past week I've been observing 3-4+ cicada/m^3 rates when they are flying in the backyard (crabapple?) tree and small front yard tree. Rates even approaching 6 cicadas/m^3 at times. Jackpotting rules!

What app(s) are you all using to measure cicada noise?

DCA: 107 IAD: 106 BWI: 107 RIC: 108

IAD is currently at 82/67.

Okay. I've just noticed something pretty cool... at least to me anyways. So with the Magicicada cassini member of the cicadas ( the ones that make the loud electrical noise) I've noticed the noise wax and wane in 5 second intervals. So looking at the tree that I mentioned in my backyard, where they all seem to be hanging out, I looked closely if I could see any flying pattern with them related to their wax/wane noise levels. Sure enough, I observe most of them take flight during the 2-3 seconds when their noise output is lower. Then in those 2-3 seconds that they've landed on twigs/leaves/branches the noise level crescendos to a peak before lowering again before they take their few second long flight and repeat the pattern indefinitely. I just thought it was something fascinating to share that I just noticed with the cicadas today.

I try the best that I can to bring a smile or a laugh to people on these boards. I often find myself cringe though lol. I'm certainly no @WxWatcher007 @stormtracker @Bob Chill or many others on here comedy-wise.

Since the snow season runs from July 1st through June 30th I didn't want 2/3rds of the subforum to potentially be reaped before we even start cooling off for the winter should these storms fail to form. A powerful force you are on these boards. Very vigilant we must be around you. Also, did @yoda hack my brain? Stop it, Yoda! That's not nice.

Mesoscale Discussion July 4, 2021 2:23PM EDT A well-defined remnant MCV continues to move ESEwards over eastern Ohio. With an increasingly agitated cloud field over eastern OH and into southwestern PA aided by the MCV initiation of thunderstorms in the region is imminent and a severe weather watch will be required within the hour. A stationary front is draped from NW to SE roughly from southwestern PA through the Ocean City, MD area. Surface flow immediately to the northeast of this front is out of the SE. With the hottest June ever experienced in the discussion area and the string of recent days into the triple digits in the Mid-Atlantic and Chesapeake Bay region surface water temps in the Bay are at all-time record highs (31-32+C) with western Atlantic SSTs off of the Delmarva around 28-29C. As a result of this dewpoints have risen into the lower 80’sF. With strong heating allowing temperatures to reach the lower 90’s and steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7.5C/km, MLCAPE of 5000-6000+ J/kg is already in place. Effective SRH along and immediately northeast of the front where surface winds are the most backed is up to 150m2/s2. As a result, there is a threat of a tornado with any supercell that manages to form ahead of a likely maturing MCS. Very large hail and severe (possibly significantly so) winds are also likely with supercells. As just hinted at the end of the previous paragraph storms are expected to blossom shortly over eastern OH into extreme northern WVA and southwestern PA. Effective bulk shear 30-40kts along with the extreme instability in place will allow for storms to rapidly organize. With extreme high PW values of 2.2-2.4” and strong downdraft CAPE of up to 1500 J/kg the environment will be exceptionally favorable for cold pool generation as well as embedded wet microbursts within the line. Given the general environment these storms are expected to accelerate quickly SEwards and into the urban corridor by early this evening. Significantly severe winds are a big concern for this area. A QLCS tornado or two is possible as well given the aforementioned effective SRH along with severe hail. Forecaster: GBM Joe the Eskimo: Figures these storms will come just in time to ruin fireworks. Baby Yoda: 18z SPC meso page shows over 6000 J/kg mlcape over most of the region! lwxkm: If we don’t get placed under a moderate risk after THAT disco….. George BM: @lwxkm I’m almost 100% certain that a MDT is incoming with that MCD above. I wonder if we get a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly. Baby Yoda: @George BM We may just end up with a Tornado Watch given how things look right now… 5% TOR probs and all. Bob Chili Dogs: Sup peeps! how much for Rockville? Ravens: Chili Dog Boobs! No way! TheriskisHIGH: @Baby Yoda Back in July 2019 the SPC issued a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of Wisconsin despite an enhanced (10%) tornado risk and the watch having 60/20 tornado probs… probably to stress how severe the wind potential was. That was the watch that stated wind gusts to 105mph expected. George BM: @Baby Yoda I’ve seen the SPC place PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches even with high TOR probs within the watch to drive home the extreme wind potential with storms. The July 19, 2019 PDS STW was placed in an area where there was an enhanced tornado risk and had 60/20 TOR probs. However, WIND probs were maxed out >95/>95. Also, I don’t think I’ve ever seen 6,000+ J/kg MLCAPE combined with 2.3-2.4” Pwats and 1500J/kg DCAPE. The microburst potential with these storms has GOT to be through the roof I’d think. @TheriskisHIGH thoughts about this? ETA: Ninja’d. Lwxkm: Oh boy. The Chili Dog has landed. This just got more legit than ever! Hourlylurker: @Bob Chili Dogs Now it’s a real storm party! I better lose every single tree on my property or I’m calling a bust! George BM: @Hourlylurker Waterboy: Never before have I felt it so humid that I came in the house feeling wet after a mere 30 seconds. Dewpoints are in the low 80s at all three major local airports. I’m getting real worried about the storms later. KW: @Waterboy Buck up Waterboy. You ARE H2O. You’ll be fine. KW: Make sure all your phones are charged down there. I may actually be happy to be getting fringed today at least from the worst of the storms. I’m not too fond of the idea of spending a week+ in an oven with no power. Also… CHILI DOGS! Fancy seeing you here in the summer. Lwxkm: @KW I don’t know. I’d be pretty happy if the oven I was trapped in had no power. That’s when I get outta dodge. Joe the Eskimo: Maryland posters. Please PM me any damage you come across later. CAPE: I hear that I’m very high today. But what did I get high on? Bob Chili Dogs: @Ravens I need to change my display name.

CLASSIC DCAing. 58F for the high today. IAD hit 57F.

I'm -4 today.

18z GFS with a high of 49F at KDCA on Sunday. If DCA stays below 50F I'll run into a sports bar or a pub in an Elsa dress and start throwing slushy ice up in the air playing in the slush.

Meanwhile there is quite the disagreement in surface temps/dewpts locally tomorrow afternoon. Some CAMs w/ temps near 80 and dewpoints well into the 60s(even approaching 70F). The 3kmNAM says temps/dewpts in the 50s. I'd definitely feel better about severe chances in the Fredericksburg - RIC corridor tomorrow. I was actually a little bit surprised to see the SLGT for tomorrow over us instead of to our south. Just my amateur 2 cents. We'll see what actually transpires over the next 24-36 hours, of course.

There were tornadic supercells that developed in the WVA panhandle and moved along/near the 1-70 corridor in northern MD. Doesn't mean there will be multiple tornadoes in VA tomorrow, of course. Just that conditions look favorable, probably just to our south.

That one looks microbursty. It's warned for 80 mph gusts and golf ball sized hail.

Sorry Fairfax and Prince William county weenies.