George BM

Yeah. IAD has gusted to 40kts so far. There already a few power outages with a few limbs/weak trees down in Fairfax county.

Just the person I was looking for. Yeah I've been looking at that as well. I'd think it could be interesting with >9C/km 0-3km lapse rates and a bit of inverted-v signatures showing up in soundings should a line or line segments form along the front.

Fall? Not winter?

IAD has hit 88F so far trying the record.

Yeap. Today's temperature range is going to be huge in spots that are currently cooler ( up to 40+F).

UPDATE: The Vibrant Sunset Warning that was in effect for the DMV region has been cancelled. The previous "forecaster" carelessly didn't account for the additional high clouds currently over Ohio that would lead to a much shorter period of sunshine shining underneath the high clouds over the region. This "forecaster" does not represent the real forecasters out there that alert the public about cool or potentially dangerous weather events. A Vibrant Sunset Warning should've never been issued. An advisory would have sufficed.

A Vibrant Sunset Warning is in effect for the DMV region until 8:25pm local time. At 7:32pm local time high clouds were sitting over much of northern VA, Maryland as well as DC. Vibrant oranges and pinks followed by reds can be expect in the warned area, especially between 7:59pm and 8:14pm. Use extra caution when driving to avoid getting to accidents as a result of being distracted by the sunset. Forecaster: George BM

Noticed fighters flying quickly eastbound high over Chantilly about 10-12 minutes ago. High enough that the noise from them would not have gotten too many peoples attention. It's probably nothing. Just something random to note on this Saturday afternoon.

I'm no expert but I would guess that this would have to do with the higher dewpoints that often reside closer to the bay, especially as the bay surface water temps rise late in the spring and during the summer. @JakkelWx always talked about the cornfields in his area near Easton, MD before he moved. They often allowed dewpoints to get into the low 80'sF there while areas near the bay in general had dews in the upper 70's while the rest of us experienced the more typical 70-75F dewpoint range. Higher dewpoints result in higher instability. Lets say that the temperature/dewpoint one day is 90/70 respectively. Raising the dewpoint temperature 5F (90/75) will result in higher instability than raising the temperature 5F (95/70). It's easier to see why on a skew-t diagram. But I'll let someone more knowledgeable than me explain that.

Meanwhile, IAD got down to 30F this morning.

If you look closely in western Ohio you can see what looks like a NW-SE zone of accumulated graupel/snow from last nights thunderstorms.

@MN Transplant @high risk Check out the thunderstorms in eastern Indiana (IND radar) reaching ~20,000ft in height w/ a lot of lightning. With the cold air aloft (500mb temps: ~ -35C/ 850mb temps: ~ -6C), steep low-level lapse rates and surface temps in the 40-45F range, I'd think a lot of that precip is in the form of graupel or snow. Pretty neat. What I'd give to have that here...

I just went outside after reading these posts to try to hear some (I didn't hear any). But I looked straight up directly overhead and saw what I thought was a brighter star or planet that I'd never seen before (I'd say brighter than Mars but darker than Venus). But after a few seconds it disappeared. Did anyone else here notice it? This was around 10:30-10:35pm (10-15 mins ago).

The May 15th-June 15th period actually happens to be the exact period I feel best about overall severe potential in these parts.

Soundings over the eastern shore, on the long range HRRR anyway, look good for severe wind potential as well as some hail with VERY steep LLLRs, 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 500mb temps (-20/-21C) w/ a LI around -4.

Yeap. It's currently undergoing an EWRC. Now to see how it comes out on the flip side of it.

@WxWatcher007 Check out STYSurigae in the Western Pacific.

Thank you all for the replies!

When you all who've already gotten the shot (I hope to get mine within the next week or two) talk about a sore arm do you mean the entire arm or just the area that got the shot?... Everyone reacts differently of course.

Same t-storm hit me here with small hail. Cold air aloft (500mb temps of -23 to -24C) definitely helped.

I'm actually more interested in the meso-low in southwestern VA now than I am about any potential afternoon convection for the reasons stated above. Perhaps early morning downpours w/ something a little more (gusty winds). If there were a little bit more surface CAPE, it could be more interesting.

I have a challenge for you. Use your new abilities to give the subforum a derecho that moves from northwest to southeast at 70mph with numerous hurricane force wind gusts lickity split! DOWIT!

Yeap.

@H2O @yoda Oh you two were referring to @WxWatcher007. Yeah he'll get multiple truck-tire eyewalls and eyes, hopefully. As for us?... Weenie-Os and Miller-Lites to drown the tears of being fringed it is.

FAX!