George BM

Okay. I've just noticed something pretty cool... at least to me anyways. So with the Magicicada cassini member of the cicadas ( the ones that make the loud electrical noise) I've noticed the noise wax and wane in 5 second intervals. So looking at the tree that I mentioned in my backyard, where they all seem to be hanging out, I looked closely if I could see any flying pattern with them related to their wax/wane noise levels. Sure enough, I observe most of them take flight during the 2-3 seconds when their noise output is lower. Then in those 2-3 seconds that they've landed on twigs/leaves/branches the noise level crescendos to a peak before lowering again before they take their few second long flight and repeat the pattern indefinitely. I just thought it was something fascinating to share that I just noticed with the cicadas today.

I try the best that I can to bring a smile or a laugh to people on these boards. I often find myself cringe though lol. I'm certainly no @WxWatcher007 @stormtracker @Bob Chill or many others on here comedy-wise.

Since the snow season runs from July 1st through June 30th I didn't want 2/3rds of the subforum to potentially be reaped before we even start cooling off for the winter should these storms fail to form. A powerful force you are on these boards. Very vigilant we must be around you. Also, did @yoda hack my brain? Stop it, Yoda! That's not nice.

Mesoscale Discussion July 4, 2021 2:23PM EDT A well-defined remnant MCV continues to move ESEwards over eastern Ohio. With an increasingly agitated cloud field over eastern OH and into southwestern PA aided by the MCV initiation of thunderstorms in the region is imminent and a severe weather watch will be required within the hour. A stationary front is draped from NW to SE roughly from southwestern PA through the Ocean City, MD area. Surface flow immediately to the northeast of this front is out of the SE. With the hottest June ever experienced in the discussion area and the string of recent days into the triple digits in the Mid-Atlantic and Chesapeake Bay region surface water temps in the Bay are at all-time record highs (31-32+C) with western Atlantic SSTs off of the Delmarva around 28-29C. As a result of this dewpoints have risen into the lower 80’sF. With strong heating allowing temperatures to reach the lower 90’s and steep mid-level lapse rates in excess of 7.5C/km, MLCAPE of 5000-6000+ J/kg is already in place. Effective SRH along and immediately northeast of the front where surface winds are the most backed is up to 150m2/s2. As a result, there is a threat of a tornado with any supercell that manages to form ahead of a likely maturing MCS. Very large hail and severe (possibly significantly so) winds are also likely with supercells. As just hinted at the end of the previous paragraph storms are expected to blossom shortly over eastern OH into extreme northern WVA and southwestern PA. Effective bulk shear 30-40kts along with the extreme instability in place will allow for storms to rapidly organize. With extreme high PW values of 2.2-2.4” and strong downdraft CAPE of up to 1500 J/kg the environment will be exceptionally favorable for cold pool generation as well as embedded wet microbursts within the line. Given the general environment these storms are expected to accelerate quickly SEwards and into the urban corridor by early this evening. Significantly severe winds are a big concern for this area. A QLCS tornado or two is possible as well given the aforementioned effective SRH along with severe hail. Forecaster: GBM Joe the Eskimo: Figures these storms will come just in time to ruin fireworks. Baby Yoda: 18z SPC meso page shows over 6000 J/kg mlcape over most of the region! lwxkm: If we don’t get placed under a moderate risk after THAT disco….. George BM: @lwxkm I’m almost 100% certain that a MDT is incoming with that MCD above. I wonder if we get a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly. Baby Yoda: @George BM We may just end up with a Tornado Watch given how things look right now… 5% TOR probs and all. Bob Chili Dogs: Sup peeps! how much for Rockville? Ravens: Chili Dog Boobs! No way! TheriskisHIGH: @Baby Yoda Back in July 2019 the SPC issued a PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of Wisconsin despite an enhanced (10%) tornado risk and the watch having 60/20 tornado probs… probably to stress how severe the wind potential was. That was the watch that stated wind gusts to 105mph expected. George BM: @Baby Yoda I’ve seen the SPC place PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches even with high TOR probs within the watch to drive home the extreme wind potential with storms. The July 19, 2019 PDS STW was placed in an area where there was an enhanced tornado risk and had 60/20 TOR probs. However, WIND probs were maxed out >95/>95. Also, I don’t think I’ve ever seen 6,000+ J/kg MLCAPE combined with 2.3-2.4” Pwats and 1500J/kg DCAPE. The microburst potential with these storms has GOT to be through the roof I’d think. @TheriskisHIGH thoughts about this? ETA: Ninja’d. Lwxkm: Oh boy. The Chili Dog has landed. This just got more legit than ever! Hourlylurker: @Bob Chili Dogs Now it’s a real storm party! I better lose every single tree on my property or I’m calling a bust! George BM: @Hourlylurker Waterboy: Never before have I felt it so humid that I came in the house feeling wet after a mere 30 seconds. Dewpoints are in the low 80s at all three major local airports. I’m getting real worried about the storms later. KW: @Waterboy Buck up Waterboy. You ARE H2O. You’ll be fine. KW: Make sure all your phones are charged down there. I may actually be happy to be getting fringed today at least from the worst of the storms. I’m not too fond of the idea of spending a week+ in an oven with no power. Also… CHILI DOGS! Fancy seeing you here in the summer. Lwxkm: @KW I don’t know. I’d be pretty happy if the oven I was trapped in had no power. That’s when I get outta dodge. Joe the Eskimo: Maryland posters. Please PM me any damage you come across later. CAPE: I hear that I’m very high today. But what did I get high on? Bob Chili Dogs: @Ravens I need to change my display name.

CLASSIC DCAing. 58F for the high today. IAD hit 57F.

I'm -4 today.

18z GFS with a high of 49F at KDCA on Sunday. If DCA stays below 50F I'll run into a sports bar or a pub in an Elsa dress and start throwing slushy ice up in the air playing in the slush.

Meanwhile there is quite the disagreement in surface temps/dewpts locally tomorrow afternoon. Some CAMs w/ temps near 80 and dewpoints well into the 60s(even approaching 70F). The 3kmNAM says temps/dewpts in the 50s. I'd definitely feel better about severe chances in the Fredericksburg - RIC corridor tomorrow. I was actually a little bit surprised to see the SLGT for tomorrow over us instead of to our south. Just my amateur 2 cents. We'll see what actually transpires over the next 24-36 hours, of course.

There were tornadic supercells that developed in the WVA panhandle and moved along/near the 1-70 corridor in northern MD. Doesn't mean there will be multiple tornadoes in VA tomorrow, of course. Just that conditions look favorable, probably just to our south.

That one looks microbursty. It's warned for 80 mph gusts and golf ball sized hail.

Sorry Fairfax and Prince William county weenies.

I've noticed two distinct noises that the cicadas make. The "distant police siren" noise and the louder "electric-like" noise that we are more accustomed to hearing annually. My backyard *crabapple?* tree seems to be a local jackpot of the "electric-like" noise cicadas. Many cicadas are flying around, especially in that tree. I'd guesstimate that cicada rates are around 1-2+ cicadas/ cubic meter. Hopefully I can get into the 2-3+ C/m^3 stuff. Note: I'm not entirely sure that it's a crabapple tree. I'm bad at tree types.

We've had a total of two SLGT risk days so far this year. (March 28th, May 4th)

Hahaha. I just observed this minutes ago myself.

I don't know whether it's because I was a little kid the last time they came out and, as a result, didn't pay much attention to the noise. But I never noticed this level of noise in 2004. I can hear them from inside the house now.

Bold prediction: DCA ends May with above average rainfall.

@H2O 21 must feel great. Happy birthday and safe drinking!

There's a little bit of smoke aloft in the air. Just enough to give the sun and sky that smoky look that you've noticed but haven't posted about because it isn't obvious enough , unlike last September. The gust front moving through from ESE to WNW could have wind gusts up to 25mph.

Looking goodly. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu May 20 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A non-tropical low pressure system is located about 800 miles east of Bermuda. The low is expected to develop gale-force winds later today while it moves generally northward. The low is then forecast to move westward and southwestward over warmer waters tonight and Friday, and it will likely become a subtropical cyclone near and to the northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The system is expected to move toward the north and northeast into a more hostile environment by late Sunday into Monday. For more information on this developing low pressure area, please see High Seas forecasts issued by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and forecast products issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Beven

This May has been scores better than last May. I've really appreciated the upper 40s much of this month during my early morning runs. Down to 46F again at IAD earlier.

UPDATE: The mass emergence has commenced on my three maple trees. I even felt a drop of liquid when I was under one of the trees. The storm is here!

And now I've seen my first adult cicada. They are much smaller than the black/green locusts we see here annually. #Ontheboard How often are you supposed to clear your cicada boards? Daily? Weekly? Every other day?

Reading this sentence makes me picture a fully loaded C-5A/B Galaxy take off w/ the TF-39 engines screeching and screaming bloody murder lugging the heavy bird off of the ground.

I'm finally seeing the exoskeletons on my maple tree in the front yard. Around 5-7 in total.