George BM

I'm seeing 70+ mph a few thousand feet off of the surface with that one on radarscope.

I certainly don't hate the storm cluster that the HRRR has been advertising moving through the region late this afternoon. Other 0z CAMs to a slightly lesser extent showed a similar thing. Much like what csnavywx hinted at above. I don't hate the large DCAPE and 30-40kt mid-level flow showing up on CAMs either (Wind potential). Fingers crossed.

Yes. I've noticed that some models have looked a bit more 'sheary' than usual for the time of year in the long range. Fingers, toes, arms, legs and anything you can cross crossed.

I'm actually lowkey watching Monday. Some CAMs are hinting that MLLRs may steepen during the day with moisture from Claudette in the lower levels leading to higher CAPE. At the same time shear looks to strengthen to modest/moderate levels. If storms can form along the surface trough near the mountains on Monday and/or organized storm activity from further west can propagate eastward into the region, the ingredients may be there for a few decent storms.

Currently 73/41 at IAD. G------- It's simply g------- What a g------- It seems that that G-word has been used too much for this board's software to handle. But I think you all know what I was trying to say. Actually, how about this other g-word that's been used slightly less. Glorious... Hey it wasn't cut out! Let's try this again. ... Currently... well now 73/40 at IAD. It's simply glorious.

With how severe the drought is out west and with the ridge being favored in that area at least through much of the month, I wonder if we see a bit of a feedback loop this summer with the drought out west allowing for quicker heating during the day leading to stronger ridges out there and more troughing in the east? Just a thought that I've pondered lately. I mean obviously there will occasionally be an eastern ridge and a western trough this summer. I'm probably thinking too simply.

Venting section: It's early indeed and no two systems are the exact same. But I literally (Yeah... I said 'literally'. Don't cringe too hard.) was just thinking about the bolded statement and how it's these kind of potential events that are NOTORIOUS for screwing us over with early day cloud cover and/or convection that takes too long to clear out. (Think a 6z day 1 ENH+ for the region that becomes a 1630z or 20z Day 1 MRGL). Non-venting section: Saturday definitely looks like the kind of day that would have 'higher than normal' severe potential if we don't get those infamous morning shenanigans mentioned in the above paragraph ruining steeper than normal MLLRs/EML given the likely swift deep-layer flow. As always... fingers crossed.

We need to get a time machine and teleport back to this moment 49 years ago and live those following ten days out.

Lol. I should've added the /s or or something like that.

@WxWatcher007 Nope. It's spot on. Notice the areas that get the highest impact. Get ready now SE subforum folks.

*Puts weenie hat on* All the rain that fell to the west of the mountains yesterday will help keep dewpoints elevated in those areas when mixing occurs with the strong June sun today. *Takes weenie hat off* But seriously though how much of a factor is that? I'd thing that today's models take this into account?

Check it out now. I think we become 2-0-0 later today.

Well if can can speed things up anyway. Tomorrow doesn't look to be plagued by clouds looking at CAM soundings.

Oh wow. I'm actually a little surprised that the line hasn't fallen apart yet as they cross over the Blue Ridge. I saw the meso as well. Well see what transpires over the next few hours... not that I'm expecting hurricane-force winds.

My current thinking, looking at more sufficient CAPE still being to the west atm, is that it will (if not die out) at least dwindle to some midday/early afternoon showers for this area with additional convection developing further upstream. That potential additional convection would probably be our best shot... at least for western zones (your place and westwards) where conditions are most favorable for stronger storms. Some storms could certainly slip further east into the metros but CAPE would be dwindling as they do leading to a weakening trend. But yes. That current cluster is interesting looking indeed.

If we can get the tongue of higher CAPE that some CAMs are hinting at to stay over our region tomorrow instead of being shunted further east, then I'd think that we could see some interesting storm modes (splitting supercells?) given the long straight hodographs.

There's a SLGT risk for severe wind along and west of the blue ridge mountains where instability is most likely to be highest (MLCAPE >1000J/kg) along with modest bulk shear. Areas immediately west of I-95 are in a MRGL risk.

Radarscope shows that a rogue lightning bolt struck between Jessup and Severn MD... but a lot closer Jessup (~3/4 of the way to Jessup from Severn).

So... about thirty minutes ago I had a cicada land near my left wrist and stick its drinking stick into that region to start drinking. I assume that this is normal cicada behavior and has happened to many of you?

30-35 dbz returns over my house this morning. Two days ago when I was mowing my lawn a whole bunch of them flew from the small tree that I was circling ( there were hundreds of them covering the tree trunk) and it started raining. For the past week I've been observing 3-4+ cicada/m^3 rates when they are flying in the backyard (crabapple?) tree and small front yard tree. Rates even approaching 6 cicadas/m^3 at times. Jackpotting rules!

What app(s) are you all using to measure cicada noise?

DCA: 107 IAD: 106 BWI: 107 RIC: 108

IAD is currently at 82/67.