George BM

Not to worry, friend. The DC split cannot hurt us in the George BM universe.

FWIW, the 12z Canadian is similar.

NA101: Oh man its about to hit me here. I HATE big wind. I’ll just hang out in my basement and hope the house isn’t completely screwed up when I come back out. George BM: I have a few minutes left before it hits here. You can see all the layers of pancakes above the shelf cloud on the horizon here. I can’t even see the bottom of the shelf yet (trees in the way) but it’s only about 3-4 minutes away. ETA: And now I’m hearing the distance roar. NoVaWx: My goodness! Trees falling all over the place and BIG limbs flying through the air! I’m even seeing some siding flying around! Power is gone! Waterboy: I brought in everything that can be blown away. I’m debating bringing my pillows into the downstair bathroom. George BM: Unreal winds here now! These seem like 70-80+ mph gusts to me. Trees are falling everywhere! ETA: Whiteout rains have just hit and the winds have increased further (90+ mph)! The house is making all kinds of noise I’ve never heard it make before. Snowenoverthere: Well there goes all of the firework shows for tonight. Hourlylurker: All these adrenline-pumping reports to my northwest! Christmas in July! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

EastCoastDesert: All I’m asking for is enough rain for me to not have to water my garden this evening. ETA: I’m starting to hear the roar to my north w/ the gust front probably still 2-3 miles away. Mrs. J: Sweet mother of pearl! I’m going to the basement! Baby Yoda: @Mrs. J Stay safe! Lwxkm: 100-120+mph velocity estimates in her zone. NWBaltimore: Okay, the power just came back on here so I’m just now hearing about the tornado reports through Morrell Park. I have big tree limbs down IMBY with a few trees down throughout the neighborhood. That’s a nasty looking bookend vortex developing to my northwest. We’re just getting started here. Losttoa6: Wow! The storm started about 5 minutes ago here and I’m contemplating going to my basement. Winds probably 80-90+mph with many trees already down everywhere I look and huge limbs flying everywhere! I don’t know how I still have power. Aaaand there it goes just as I type this lol. ETA: Just heard glass shatter! into the basement I go. Ji: This storm is using up all of our HECS jojo for the next decade. Mega-disaster as usual. Baby Yoda: The STW across northwestern areas just got updated now saying 100mph wind gusts and half-dollar hail. George BM: @Baby Yoda

Mrs. J: Just got an EAS on my phone! Scared the living daylights outta me. Losttoa6: Whoa! An EAS for a Severe Thunderstorm Warning? Baby Yoda: STW for 90 mph wind gusts and half-dollar size hail! This includes pretty much everyone Gaithersburg, Leesburg, Purcellville and all areas of MD northwest until 6pm. Warning has the line moving at 70mph! The storms are still in PA about to cross the MD/PA line. Joe the Eskimo: @Baby Yoda TrickC: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Wind is the most useless kind of weather. Alpha: Wow! Do ANY of you actually own a house? Why are you all simping for death and destruction? Losers. Hourlylurker: @Alpha Yeah no. This is a place where people have a passion for experiencing extreme weather, some more than others. Someone’s want for storms has zero effect on what happens with Mother Nature. NWBaltimore: Getting pounded by very large hail here now with this supercell. Probably Golfball sized. ETA: It just got tornado warned. Alpha: @Hourlylurker Great to see that you have no compassion for others. I’ve gone through hurricanes down here. Many of them last year. Why would you psychopaths want any of the death and heartache that comes with storms of this magnitude? Baby Yoda: Tornado Warning now on the Baltimore supercell. Radar indicated but there is a growing couplet over Forest Park Golf Course moving towards Franklin. Hourlylurker: @Alpha Lol! So, if you have any kind of fascination of experiencing big storms you’re a human hating psychopath. Got it! KW: @Alpha If you’re just going to come here to call people names expect your posts to disappear quick. Alpha: Whatever. I’ll go join the adults back in my subforum now. Midatlanticwx: @Alpha Dr. Reaper: Alpha, no one here is gloating over the number of deaths that occur in a storm. A lot of people on here enjoy the thrill of experiencing big storms. Yes, they can sometimes damage or destroy neighborhoods. They can sometimes lead to loss of life. But I VERY HIGHLY doubt that people are on here thinking “Yes, let’s see how expensive this storm may be for life and property around my area. I’m excited to see the death toll from these storms.” No. We only enjoy the thrill of experiencing a powerful storm… the kind you hear about on the radio and/or on the news. Yes, it would be preferable if storms only hit low population zones like, for example, tornadoes mowing over open fields in the Great Plains. But powerful storms do hit populated regions due to random chaos. Storms were around long before we humans were. They are just a force of nature that doesn’t give one lick about how you or I or anyone feels about them. PrinceFredrick: That couplet by Baltimore is starting to look stronger. Baby Yoda: NWS George BM Headquarters Flash Flood Watch in effect until midnight EDT tonight. A line of severe thunderstorms will move through our region from northwest to southeast through the afternoon and evening. Although the line will be moving quickly Pwats of up to 2.5 inches will allow these storms to have very heavy rainfall rates. A quick 1.5 to 3 inches of rain could fall as they move through. Locally higher amounts of 4+ inches are possible wherever the line becomes oriented more parallel to the flow. This is most likely in the Shenandoah Valley and up towards Baltimore and southeastwards across the bay. Rivers and streams may rise very quickly out of their banks. Always turn around and do not drown. Mattie: @Baby Yoda A couple inches isn’t enough to save us from the catastrophic drought. PrinceFredrick: @Dr. Reaper Nah. We all know that @Waterboy was around well before the first storm landed on this earth. Waterboy: @PrinceFredrick Mrs. J: Nonstop disco lightning here now. About 5 minutes away from getting hit.

Baby Yoda: And so it begins. NWS George BM Headquarters Immediate Broadcast 434PM EDT July 4 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect for central and eastern Garrett County, Allegany County and central and western Washington county in Maryland, for northern and central Mineral County, northern Hampshire County, Morgan County and northern Berkeley County in West Virginia and for northern Fredrick County in Virginia until 530PM EDT. At 433PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from southeastern Fayette County in Pennsylvania to northern Bedford County in Pennsylvania moving southeast at 50 mph. Hazards: 80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL These are very dangerous storms which could cause structural damage to buildings, flying debris and extensive tree damage. Stay inside and away from windows and be on the lowest floor in the interior of your house. X: Aaaaaaand I’m in the southwestern part of VA on a one-day trip to visit my in-laws. I’ve not left the area for over a year and the one day I do legit severe final shows its asst up. Y’all enjoy up there. Lwxkm: Already a lot of wind damage reports coming in from southwestern PA. Hourlylurker: I got the generator ‘Ready for Freddy’! LFG! TheriskisHIGH: I can’t believe that I’m saying this but this event has a real chance at being worse than the 2012 derecho in the region. This is looking like a high-end severe wind event, the likes of which the Midwest/Plains may see once every year or two. No one should be on the road when this hits. All firework shows in the affected areas should be postponed. The bad thing about this is that there was not much lead time at all for a potential event of this magnitude. It was only late this morning that the public started being made aware of the danger today. Stay safe this afternoon and evening.

July the 4th be with you. Happy Independence Day! Watch out for the aliens.

The deep blue from earlier is gone. We're getting a little bit of smoke aloft.

Now while most of the time MLCAPE is more representative of the instability in the atmosphere for storms SBCAPE from the 00z IAD sounding yesterday evening was fairly high 1500-2000J/kg (I'm guessing from limited solar radiation through the afternoon following the earlier storms heating up and evaporating water from the surface leading to higher dewpoints near the surface?) compared to MLCAPE. Now I don't know too much about how storms interact with MLCAPE vs. SBCAPE. I'm wondering if the relative high SBCAPE was a big factor to the intensity of the post-dusk intensity of the storms... especially when combined with relatively fast flow aloft in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as seen below. I too would love to learn about that. Perhaps @high risk @csnavywx know more about storm behavior wrt ML and SB cape?

I had noticed early this evening (6-8pm) that the dewpoint temps had risen to the low/mid 70's yielding 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE. Okay, I thought, that little bit of convection in the mountains may intensify into heavy downpours w/ occasional lightning and gusty(non-severe) winds given the 40kt EBWD. But legitimately severe winds with a potential tornado? Nope I certainly didn't anticipate the convection getting THIS intense.

How much did you find in the gauge after getting home yesterday?

But not when I'm running.

Soon... NWS George BM Headquarters July 4 2021 250PM EDT Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10pm edt *Particularly Dangerous Situation* Hazards: Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105mph expected A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail events w/ isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Discussion: Storms starting to develop over southewestern PA and southeastern OH will quickly organize into an intense MCS an accelerate southeastwards through the watch area. With extreme to excessive instability, record high Pwats and large DCAPE downbursts and microbursts within the line will be able to bring down high-end severe, hurricane-force wind gusts. Any supercells that manage to form ahead of the main line given the 35-45+kt effective bulk shear and 150-200m2/s2 will be capable of producing all hazards (tornadoes/wind/hail) with the potential for very large hail to perhaps giant hail. Stormtops: 700 Mean storm motion vector: 31055

@EastCoast NPZ Any luck with those storms currently in your area?

Yes. It's your turn.

I was mowing my yard earlier and I too heard my first annual cicada.

Happy 9 year anniversary to you all!

@mappy I've heard rumblings that today is a special day for you? I hope you've been enjoying the big day.

The short term section of the AFD issued by SEW... yeap. 000 FXUS66 KSEW 262245 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 345 PM PDT Sat Jun 26 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Record breaking heat is already underway as the strong ridge overhead intensifies over the next few days. Temperatures will peak tomorrow and Monday before meaningful onshore flow acts to cool down the region on Tuesday. Temperatures will not likely cool back down to normal for this time of year and will remain above average through next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Record breaking temperatures have been recorded across western Washington this afternoon, yet it is still early on in the heat event. With Sea- Tac recording 99 degrees, it becomes the hottest June day on record, but the next two days look to once again break those records and then likely breaking into all time record territory. Relief from the hot temperatures are certainly not likely overnight in terms of the overnight lows over the next two days either, as record high low temperatures in the 70s are expected. Coastal locations are also going to be hot, but likely peaking on Sunday as the thermal trough along the coast is going to go through the area on Monday and help initiate some cooling onshore flow. Monday will likely be the hottest day for the interior as that thermal trough sets up more over the I-5 corridor. It is quite unbelievable to have 108-110 in the forecast for Monday in and around SeaTac, but that is a testament to the strength of this ridge. Furthermore, it is exceedingly difficult to forecast the nuances for an event such as this one for which there is no good analog or comparison for in recent climatological recollection. The excessive heat warning remains in effect for western Washington. Those without access to proper cooling and hydration will remain most at risk for heat illness and related complications through the weekend and into early next week. Check with local municipalities and county authorities for information on cooling centers for those without air conditioning. Here are some additional tips for staying safe in the heat: -Avoid strenuous activity and limit time outdoors, especially in the peak heating of the day. Without overnight relief from the heat, a general time frame to avoid the outdoors is between 9am- 6pm. -Make sure to stay hydrated and to drink enough water before feeling thirsty. -Check on family, friends, neighbors, and those who do not have access to proper cooling.

A record that will likely stand for less than 24 hours.

Yeap. July 16, 2010 at 5:04am local time. It was a magnitude 3.6?... IIRC.

Probably nothing happens but the area of thunderstorms SE of Bermuda with a weak surface trough and a bit of an ULL shows that SSTs are slowly heating up for the season.

I love Gravelly Point as well when I spot.

One degree warmer this morning than yesterday, at 50 for IADs low.