George BM

@yoda Very great and happy I hope your birthday has been.

IAD down to 45F.

Yeap. That's indeed the doing of the bolt heard around the area.

I KNOW that you just heard that rumble of thunder.

One of these years...

DCA: 11/16 IAD: 10/23 BWI: 11/07 RIC: 11/07 3.53"

I was just thinking somewhat similar thoughts, at least with respect to some severe wind potential (Not that I'm a red tagger or anything like that). Also, the near -15C 500mb temps w/ the steep MLLRs you just mentioned would suggest a severe hail risk as well when combined with moderate CAPE (LI -5 to -7).

DCA: 11/16 IAD: 10/23 BWI: 11/07 RIC: 11/07

Sure is dark out for 8:21:17 am even accounting for later sunrise times.

It will be along the equator in the eastern Pacific because at 3:21pm edt/ 12:21pm pdt the sun will be west of South America and southeast of Hawaii.

Did you notice any damage during your long walk post-storm late on Thursday?

13-9-5 is his peak season S/H/MH predictions (August 20th- October 20th). The numbers 7-3-2 in () to the right are the number of S/H/MHs so far during the August 20th to October 20th period.

MLLRs are just a WEE bit on the steep side this morning. Now if it were two months earlier with a stronger sun-angle resulting in steeper LLLRs w/ sufficient lower-level moisture and there was a thunderstorm complex dropping southeast into the region, especially during a favorable time of day, then.....

Yeap. It shows the first digital <=540 dm 1000-500mb thickness values over the region since spring. #Soon

Is it meteorological or climatological? It's here... Fall... we'll get a taste post-Ida.

Woah! Just came back from the future with this rainfall map. Check out those two jackpot zones.

718 WTNT31 KNHC 300240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Julian Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 300 AM GMT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...JULIAN BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 41.9W ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

How do our 3" probabilities look?

Yeah. I saw the big storms blow up right over your house from colliding boundaries and even considered asking you for a report. (Curious George.)

000 WTNT34 KNHC 261445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 79.2W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Yeah. I'm in the Dulles area. I can confirm. For the past month I've watched storms and microbursts move around me the "highlight" being a microburst that hit Sterling a few miles to my north followed by the one that hit Franklin Farm, Reston, Vienna, etc. A couple miles to my south and southeast on August 13th. Believe it or not I haven't mowed the grass since Saturday, July 17th (over 5 weeks). The recent rains have finally allowed the grass to grow enough that I will mow it tomorrow.

Wait... Hail?

Nice catch. I guess "bay-enhanced" may've been a better term.

Looking like some bay-effect downpours are occurring over the Chesapeake this morning.