George BM

Could you be talking about this link? http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html

Yeap. The 12z GFS verbatim would actually be some big time wind Tuesday next week with 60-70kt winds at 1km with decent CCA.

...And not the kind of fringe he'd expect.

High/Low: 60F/40F on Christmas beats 30'sF cloudy/damp/rainy on Christmas. ... Low 40's here atm.

Great luck to you! You got this!

BWI: 52.6" DCA: 33.7" IAD: 56.1" RIC: 28.9" SBY: 27.7" ...You all know that one of these years will be my year.

Let the colder air commence.

Forecast Discussion November 24 2021 1:53PM EST A late November 1950-like storm is beginning to take shape as the strong ridge of high pressure that built up over western North America is forcing a deep trough with arctic air southwards from the Arctic and into the region this afternoon accompanied by a strong shortwave riding the polar jet stream. At the same time a healthy southern stream system is currently moving off the Carolina coastline. These two systems will phase with each other over the next 24 hours or so leading to explosive deepening of the coastal low during that time. In fact, most models have the low deepening from 1001mb as of 18z (1pm local time) to near 950mb by 18z tomorrow when the low will be centered over the Delmarva peninsula. This will be a high to extreme impact event for the entire region. Through tonight: Snow showers will start to develop over the towards dusk as an increasing S/SErly flow aloft brings in moisture over the colder airmass. Temperatures will fall through the 30’s and into the 20’s by 00z. As the night wears on, snow and wind will increase in intensity as temps fall into the teens. A Blizzard Warning will go into effect at 8z when winds will start to frequently gust over 35mph with snowfall rates surpassing 2”/hr leading to visibility dropping to below a quarter mile. Thanksgiving Day and night: This will be a very memorable day weather-wise. Temperatures will stay in the lower 10’s along and west of I-95, perhaps even dropping into the upper single digits towards the 1-81 corridor leading to wind chills near 10 to 15 below zero. There will be a sharp temperature gradient probably greatest over the Chesapeake Bay with temps along the western shore not getting above the lower 20’s while temps over the Delmarva get well up into the 40’s to perhaps the lower 50’s with precip becoming all rain in that region during the day. For the rest of the region, however, extremely heavy snowfall and damaging winds will be the main story. With the warmer than normal western Atlantic waters and the very impressive dynamics of the storm, liquid equivalent rates may get as high as 0.5-0.75”/hr. With strong lift through the DGZ layer (~ -12 to -18C) snow to liquid equivalent ratios will be in the 15-20 to 1 range. As a result, snowfall rates may exceed 10”/hr in the heaviest snow bands. At the same time winds will gust over 70mph during the day with 100-120+kt low-level winds in place around the western side of the low. Once the low starts to pull away from the region during the overnight hours 5 to 8 feet of snow should be commonplace with 15+ft drifts.

Yeah. I'll go for the p02 with a side of p27 please.

Ignoring the temperatures today the off and on downpours with the strong breeze actually made it look tropical at times earlier. Certainly no Hurricane Hazel but... something.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ052>054-290215- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0003.211029T1400Z-211029T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, Chantilly, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Manassas, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Lake Ridge, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Woodbridge, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 207 PM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park. * From Friday morning through Friday afternoon. * Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches are most likely with isolated amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible. * Heavy amounts of rain will cause creeks and streams to slowly rise, possibly out of their banks as well as the potential for flooding in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ BJL

We're also reaching the time of year where the plants, trees, grass, etc. are no longer drinking the rain water like they were during the summer. So it wouldn't take as much rain in a given amount of time to lead to flooding. I guess the lower sun angle leading to less evaporation also adds to this to an extent.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 550 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-VAZ053-054-260600- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0019.211025T2200Z-211026T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Silver Spring, South Gate, Bowie, Arlington, Annapolis, Chantilly, Odenton, Falls Church, Bethesda, Severn, Centreville, College Park, Columbia, Herndon, Severna Park, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville, Arnold, Suitland-Silver Hill, Laurel, Ellicott City, Reston, Baltimore, Alexandria, Clinton, Glen Burnie, Washington, Annandale, Gaithersburg, and Franconia 550 PM EDT Mon Oct 25 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of DC, Maryland and northern Virginia, including the following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Prince Georges and Southern Baltimore. In northern Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria and Fairfax. * Until 2 AM EDT Tuesday. * Showers and thunderstorms are expected to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain through this evening, with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. Heavy rain in a short amount of time may result in rapid rises of water on small creeks and streams and in urban areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ DHOF

Looks like IAD just gusted to 49kts (56mph).

Noice.

I gots you bro! -PNA, +AO, +NAO, +EPO from late Nov through late March. There will be no measurable snow at any of the 3 major local airports through meteorological winter. We will get some slushy events in April and even a few wet flakes mixed in with rain into May. Severe season will be a total dud followed by a dull hurricane season with a developing super El Nino. The following winter with said super Nino in place will be warm and wet with flooding rains and a couple severe weather events. But after all that... Winter of 2023-24 looks epic with a mod modoki Nino. A late season blizzard will, however, prevent us from being able to travel to see the April 8, 2024 solar eclipse.

It, obviously, won't happen but the latest 18z gfs run is one of those runs that you'd wish would run another 48 hours in order to see what weenie fantasy solution it would spit out.

Anyone seeing any patchy frost this morning?

Looks like 39 is the magic number so far. 39F for the low at IAD.

Did you mean 'below'? I bring this to your attention because I know that you keep these records and that you'd probably HATE to have errors in them.

You're going to love January 7th, 2022. Is it? Correct.

IAD down to 48F so far.

Forecast Discussion October 10, 2021 2:53 PM EDT Our attention will turn to the increasingly dangerous Hurricane Wanda. As Wanda has just made landfall as a powerful category 5 hurricane near the Big Bend region of Florida, it can only weaken so much in the 18-24 hours it will take for the circulation to plow into our region. NHC forecasts Wanda to become an extratropical cyclone as it comes through our region. However, with 850mb winds as high as 120kts and 925mb winds as high as 100kts sustained tropical storm-force winds and hurricane force wind gusts (75-90mph) can be expected across the region, particularly along and east of Blue Ridge where the right front quadrant of the storm will pass. As a result, a Hurricane Warning is in effect for all areas except eastern WV and the far western panhandle of Maryland where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Areas back towards I-81 will have the highest chance of significant to extreme flash flooding where tropical moisture will interact with the strong cold front approaching from the west allowing heavy rainbands to set up along and west of the low-pressure track. Rainfall amounts of 5-10” with localized amounts of up to 15” can be expected in this region. To the east of the Blue Ridge rainfall amounts of 2-5” w/ localized amounts of up to 7” will be more commonplace. Tonight: Showers and heavy downpours will increase in coverage as the night wears on. With some limited instability (SBCAPE: 400-800 J/kg) and decent low-level shear (Effective SRH: 150-300 m2/s2) a few supercells may also form with the threat of a brief tornado or two. Temperatures will only fall into the mid-70s with the tropical airmass in place with increasing SE winds. Monday: By dawn bands of heavy rain w/ embedded supercells will start moving through the region in earnest w/ SE winds gusting to around 40mph or so. By the late morning hours when the strongest low-level winds move overhead (100+kts around 1km above the surface) winds could gust as high as 90mph potentially causing extensive structural damage. Simultaneously, bands of heavy rain will be setting up over the mountains and I-81 corridor with 1-3”+/hr rainfall rates commonplace. By this time, the low-pressure center will be moving very quickly owing to the strong s/w trough moving in from the west so the strongest winds and heaviest rains will only last during a brief 3-6 hour period. While low-level shear will be extremely strong limited instability owing to the saturated atmosphere will make the tornado threat marginal at best. Torrential rain and flash flooding will be the main threat with any convection given the 2.5"+ Pwats. By the mid-late afternoon hours the center of Wanda will be well to the north/northeast in NE PA with the strong front blasting through. This will bring a quick end to any remaining showers. Winds will still be gusting in the 40 to 50mph range out of the northwest behind the front as temperatures fall from the upper 70s and into the upper 50s by dusk. Beyond: From Tuesday onwards through the foreseeable future (at least the next week) a significantly chillier airmass will be in place with dailt highs struggling to get out of the 50s and morning lows in the 30s being commonplace in the greater metropolitan area. The NW suburbs and the mountains may get down into the upper 20s. Frost and freeze headlines will be needed for much of the region for Wednesday morning.

The final quarter of the new year starts off relatively cool and benign.

@yoda Very great and happy I hope your birthday has been.