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George BM

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Everything posted by George BM

  1. George BM
    Aaaaaaand we're back! DCA: 108F IAD: 109F BWI: 110F RIC: 110F
  2. George BM
    Now -3.
  3. George BM
    For Thursday.
  4. George BM
    I don't remember there ever being WEAs for STWarnings before last year. I believe last year was when WEAs for STWs started for 2.75"+ hail and 80+ mph winds.
  5. George BM
    Baseball sized hail (2.75"+) and 80+ mph winds.
  6. George BM
    Right where the couplet was.
  7. George BM
    In my personal experience, and emphasis on MY personal experience , yesterday had some loose similarities to May 26, 2021 (last year) and May 14, 2018. Similar to May 26, 2021 in the sense that there were two rounds of storms round one being more isolated during the mid/late afternoon and round two pushing in from an additional line of storms from the west that rolled through more areas during the evening. Similar to May 14, 2018 in the sense that the first round of storms yesterday (yes I know that May 14, 2018 had only round of storms) made for a small temp/dewpt depression resulting in a low and dark photogenic shelf cloud through much of northern VA (like on 5/14/2018).
  8. George BM
    Update: Make that 51kts (59mph) for IAD.
  9. George BM
    Yeap. That actually appears to be what motivated the warning.
  10. George BM
    IAD just gusted to 50kts (58mph).
  11. George BM
    Yeap. Dates and days of 2022 match 2011. ... Watching the line along the Blue Ridge right now.
  12. George BM
    Mesoscale Discussion 0869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA into the eastern WV Panhandle...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...and a small part of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 221620Z - 221845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail should increase as thunderstorms develop by early this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly clear skies ahead of a front will allow the airmass to quickly destabilize into early this afternoon across parts of VA/MD/PA/NY and vicinity. A rather moist low-level airmass is in place across this region, with generally 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints. Fairly cool mid-level temperatures are also present, which coupled with continued diurnal heating will likely support MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Locally greater instability is possible across PA, MD, and VA where better low-level moisture is present. The stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada should remain displaced mostly to the west of the surface warm sector. Still, around 25-35 kt of southwesterly winds at 500 mb (weaker with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic) should foster similar values of effective bulk shear and some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters are expected to develop early this afternoon, initially over the higher terrain of VA/MD/PA/NY. As this activity strengthens and spreads eastward, it should be capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail. Most guidance suggests that initial thunderstorm development will occur by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued around that time frame to address the increasing threat through the rest of the afternoon. ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022
  13. George BM
    IAD at 92/68 as of 2:32pm.
  14. George BM
    Ditto at IAD currently.
  15. George BM
    Sure thing, friend! When it is? Where is it? Or are you holding it on Zoom?
  16. George BM
    Oh wait I got you. It got down to 43F this morning at your location but w/ the 6am or earlier sunrises the sun is high and radiant by the time most people head out. Thought you meant it was 43F where you were right now and assumed that you had traveled somewhere. ... Also, why did I write all of this out?... For no reason at all. Happy Wednesday! 70/49 at IAD currently.
  17. George BM
    ... And shear actually looks quite decent (EBWD >= 40kts). Could certainly be some decent storms in spots if we manage > 1000J/kg mlcape to go along with the shear. The later the front moves through the better.
  18. George BM
    Snow! ...well a few miles up anyways.
  19. George BM
    Ummm... SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105 mph expected Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A couple tornadoes possible ...Guyer
  20. George BM
    Your favorite time of year approaches and a certain model is drunk of its rear end south of the US.
  21. George BM
    Paging @WxWatcher007
  22. George BM
    I use https://weather.us/lightning Good for getting lightning data over the past 24 hours.
  23. George BM
    And what neither of you mentioned but both thought about after these posts is something along the lines of: "Where has the time gone? Our daughters were babies just learning to walk seemingly the other day! It would be great if time could slow down just a wee bit!" @Mrs.J Hope your daughter had a great time! @toolsheds Hope your daughter has a great time!
  24. George BM
    I gots you fam! You heard this. Note: Times are in CDT so this would be at 12:10am EDT.
  25. George BM
    @wxdude64
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