Jump to content

George BM

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,771

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by George BM

  1. George BM
    I wonder if some of us see some hail/gusty winds later with any convection/storms that manage to develop in the region. MLLRs will be fairly steep w/ 500mb temps of -20 to -22C. LLLRs look to be very steep as well. Weak instability (MLCAPE generally less than 500J/kg) owing to fairly low dews (45-50F) while a limiting factor may be slightly offset by the very steep LLLRs. Not expecting anything too crazy. Maybe some gusty winds and some hail like I mentioned.
  2. George BM
    CAPE is very pleased about this.
  3. George BM
    This is a nice site for one-min obs at IAD. http://iadasos.org/IAD/index.html
  4. George BM
    Now IAD is at 85/58.
  5. George BM
    IAD has hit 83F so far today.
  6. George BM
    @SnowenOutThere Yeap. I know what you're about to post.
  7. George BM
    Oh wow. Both of you chasing. That's a nice duo between you and your wife.
  8. George BM
    Herndon, VA 11/30/2021: T 1/03/2022: 6.0" 1/07/2022: 4.8" 1/16-17/2022: 2.8" 1/20/2022: T 1/28/2022: 0.8" 2/13/2022: 1.4" 3/12/2022: 2.5" 3/26/2022: T 3/27/2022: T 3/28/2022: T 3/30/2022: T 4/09/2022: T ... Total as of April 10, 2022: 18.3"
  9. George BM
    Or some severe and upper 70s?...
  10. George BM
    Got my April trace! Just had a light shower w/ big raindrops mixed in with graupel at 52F.
  11. George BM
    The bolt was a powerful 194kA positive CG. Lots of jumps, yelps and/or more personal "events" were probably had by peeps in the strike region... especially with no previous bolt to signify lightning in the area.
  12. George BM
  13. George BM
    Let the April traces commence!
  14. George BM
    Moving deeper into spring. Happy Pollen Sufferers Awareness Month!
  15. George BM
    New month starting. Baseball. NHL Playoffs w/ the Capitals? Booze consumption. Legit severe?
  16. George BM
    Some digital severe to enjoy from the 12z GFS today over Sterling, VA. Long range caveats (of course). But if nothing else it shows that we're reaching that TOY where our threats start becoming "CAPE-ier."
  17. George BM
    22... but I'm 25.
  18. George BM
    June 13, 2013. A strong morning MCS stabilized the atmosphere a bit and we were downgraded to a SLGT by the 1630z update. Parts of the region particularly from northern/central Loudoun county eastwards into Montgomery and Howard counties and perhaps beyond got decent storms that afternoon w/ 40-50 kt effective bulk shear and up to 1,000J/kg MLCAPE.
  19. George BM
    No you don't.
  20. George BM
    A lot of the lightning bolts from the I-95 storms last night were strong w/ peak currents between 50-100 kiloamps (some were over 100kA). Generally the vast majority of bolts produce peak currents of roughly 20-30kA give or take.
  21. George BM
    With cold temperature profiles and steep surface to 600mb lapse rates some of the most intense showers on Saturday could contain some graupel despite surface temps reaching 50+F. A rogue lightning discharge or two may even occur should any convection get deep enough.
  22. George BM
    I saw a flash of lightning in the 11pm hour last night. I, however, did not hear thunder. The storms went to my east. Herndon, VA.
  23. George BM
    I'm thinking maybe some of us may hear thunder later this evening w/ some small elevated CAPE. The surface looks too stable for anything severe-wise up in these parts though areas, mainly south of Fredericksburg, could see some enhanced wind gusts and/or a low-level meso w/ convection rooted closer to the surface there.
  24. George BM
  25. George BM
    There actually is a non-zero chance of some convection on Saturday. Models such as the NAM show at least a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE w/ decent shear. Perhaps a few lightning strikes and/or enhanced wind gusts? (General/MRGL type activity)
×
×
  • Create New...