George BM

Sure thing, friend! When it is? Where is it? Or are you holding it on Zoom?

Oh wait I got you. It got down to 43F this morning at your location but w/ the 6am or earlier sunrises the sun is high and radiant by the time most people head out. Thought you meant it was 43F where you were right now and assumed that you had traveled somewhere. ... Also, why did I write all of this out?... For no reason at all. Happy Wednesday! 70/49 at IAD currently.

... And shear actually looks quite decent (EBWD >= 40kts). Could certainly be some decent storms in spots if we manage > 1000J/kg mlcape to go along with the shear. The later the front moves through the better.

Snow! ...well a few miles up anyways.

Ummm... SEL8 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105 mph expected Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A couple tornadoes possible ...Guyer

Your favorite time of year approaches and a certain model is drunk of its rear end south of the US.

Paging @WxWatcher007

I use https://weather.us/lightning Good for getting lightning data over the past 24 hours.

And what neither of you mentioned but both thought about after these posts is something along the lines of: "Where has the time gone? Our daughters were babies just learning to walk seemingly the other day! It would be great if time could slow down just a wee bit!" @Mrs.J Hope your daughter had a great time! @toolsheds Hope your daughter has a great time!

I gots you fam! You heard this. Note: Times are in CDT so this would be at 12:10am EDT.

@wxdude64

Also, a much stronger than normal ridge will develop behind the weekend low over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and northeastward into southeastern Canada resulting in a NE flow over us going around the ridge than could be strong enough to retrograde the low back to the southwest. Side-note: While it's still early and SSTs are generally in the low 20sC off of the SE coast, save for the Gulf Stream with ~25C SSTs, I'd watch for signs of the low acquiring sub-tropical characteristics should the pattern play out as advertised.

Forecast Discussion Thursday, August 11, 2022, 12:04PM EDT An arc of heavy rain and embedded tornadic supercells associated with the warm front continues to lift northwards across northern MD. Lots of areas picked up a quick 2 to 4, even locally 5 inches of rain as it this wave of rain pushed through the region. There’s also already been a number of confirmed tornadoes with this activity. However, this is only an appetizer to what will transpire during the afternoon. The surface low associated with the remnants of Earl is currently located near Roanoke, VA w/ a min SLP of 994mb. The arc of heavy rain and embedded tornadic supercells associated with the warm front continues to lift northwards across northern MD as the mid-level dry slot moves over the region. This dry slot is allowing for more breaks in the clouds and as a result temperatures will continue to rise into the mid to perhaps even upper 80s in spots through the afternoon. With the very high moisture content of the low-levels of the atmosphere (dewpts 77-80+F and PW near 2.25”) coupled w/ the drier and slightly cooler mid-level airmass moving in overhead this will result in MLCAPE of up to around 2500J/kg. As the surface low interacts with the strong SWT approaching from the west in will deepen through the afternoon as it moves NE through the region resulting in strong to extreme low-level shear in ahead of it across the region (effective SRH 450-650 m2/s2). The very high low-level moisture content combined with the added sunshine will result in high 0-3km CAPE of 175-225+J/kg. All of these conditions, along with 50-60kt effective bulk shear, will combine to make for an environment that is very conducive for supercells producing long-track and significant tornadoes, particularly between 1pm and 6pm. Significantly severe wind gusts are possible as well given the 70+kt 800-600mb flow. Despite the fairly warm mid-level temps (500mb temps of around -4C) ample shear aloft will allow for large hail to be a threat with these supercells. Even outside of any storms the synoptic winds will be quite impressive w/ 35-45mph gusts. While this is just below Wind Advisory criteria, given how wet it’s been in recent days a few weak trees may still come down. By late this evening the winds switch to westerly as the low-pressure center moves northeast allowing drier and cooler air to filter in… allowing for better conditions for cleanup to get underway. "Forecaster": George BM

Wet to start.

34F for the low at IAD.

Yeah. I've been keeping one eye on early next week myself. We're also getting into better CAPE season.

2022 Max Temps: DCA: 88F IAD: 89F BWI: 87F RIC: 90F

There appears to be a little bit of smoke and/or dust aloft now as the sun is looking a bit more colorful (orangy reddish) than usual.

It honestly amazes me how @wxdude64 has kept at it consistently since October 1979. True dedication.

This is just a hypothesis of mine and I have no evidence whatsoever to back this up but... this recent trend of a colder pattern for the northern US and Canada come springtime. There are studies showing that the stratosphere is becoming colder (and stronger?) on average during the winter as the troposphere warms. Ex: This past February saw the coldest 50mb temps on record in the stratosphere over the high latitudes. I wonder whether the colder SPV during the winter allows it to survive longer (on average) towards spring without a significant disruption until the sun angle increases forcing it to weaken anyway. When it finally does weaken it may affect the troposphere and lead to more high-latitude blocking depending on how dramatic the disruption and/or SPV split is. Of course, the SPV and TPV are not always connected as seen earlier this winter and many other times in the past. Also, one could argue that there isn't enough data yet to know for sure how climate change is affecting the SPV/TPV. Like I said... just a hypothesis of mine. I have no concrete evidence to back it up.

Herndon, VA 11/30/2021: T 1/03/2022: 6.0" 1/07/2022: 4.8" 1/16-17/2022: 2.8" 1/20/2022: T 1/28/2022: 0.8" 2/13/2022: 1.4" 3/12/2022: 2.5" 3/26/2022: T 3/27/2022: T 3/28/2022: T 3/30/2022: T 4/09/2022: T 4/18/2022: T 4/19/2022: T ... Total as of April 19, 2022: 18.3"

I saw a few mangled wet snowflakes and ice pellets mixed in w/ the rain att in Herndon.

Bump.

The sleet has gotten a bit heavier. 42/30 at IAD.

Sleet here in Herndon as well. The April traces continue!