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George BM

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  1. George BM
    This is actually the site that wasn't working for me. But now it finally started loading. But still, thank you.
  2. George BM
    Where did you retrieve this?... As I cannot seem to retrieve it from SPCs Severe Watches archive ATM.
  3. George BM
    @Kmlwx @yoda Fourteen years.
  4. George BM
    A wxdude64TM June morning.
  5. George BM
    I'll definitely become a little more intrigued for the Wed/Thurs shortwave if timing can change a bit. It's probably easier to root for a slightly faster system (late Wed) rather than a slower system (Thurs) as of now as slowing it down by 18 hours may be a bit of a tall order compared to speeding it up by 6 hours. Either trend would maximize daytime heating as you probably know.
  6. George BM
    How strong were the winds with that storm IYBY?
  7. George BM
    With 90/68 at IAD as of 12:28pm this is officially a heatwave for the location. (Third day at 90+F)
  8. George BM
    Weenifying Thursday! Forecast Discussion Thursday, June 2, 2022 2:50PM EDT Temps have continued into the lower/mid 90s with dewpts into the lower/mid 70s. This combined with moderately steep MLLRs (6.5-7.5C/km) is yielding MLCAPE of 2500-4000J/kg. Swift flow between 600-400mb of 40-50kts will lead to effective bulk-shear of similar magnitudes leading to a mix of supercells and bowing line segments. With at least moderate low-level shear in place (ESRH 100-150m2/s2) a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with any LEWPS that may develop. Otherwise, with large DCAPE in place (1000-1500J/kg), swaths of widespread damaging winds w/ a few significant gusts potentially up to 80mph will be commonplace, particularly with any bowing segments. Large to possibly very large hail will be a threat, particularly with any supercells that form. Tornado: 5% Wind: 45%(hatched) Hail: 15% Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Northern/central VA, most of MD, Delaware, southern PA, southern NJ and the District of Columbia until 10PM EDT Thursday, June 2, 2022. Hazards: Widespread damaging winds w/ a few significant gusts to 80 mph likely. Scattered large hail likely w/ isolated very large hail to 2” diameter possible. A tornado or two possible. Watch Probs: TOR: 20%/10% WIND: 90%/70% HAIL: 60%/40% "Forecaster": George BM
  9. George BM
    A triple H start. ETA: Happy Meteorological (Climatological) summer.
  10. George BM
    IAD at 94/66 as of 3:28pm tying the daily record set in 2011.
  11. George BM
    IAD at 93/68 as of 2:36pm.
  12. George BM
    Aaaaaaand we're back! DCA: 108F IAD: 109F BWI: 110F RIC: 110F
  13. George BM
    Now -3.
  14. George BM
    For Thursday.
  15. George BM
    I don't remember there ever being WEAs for STWarnings before last year. I believe last year was when WEAs for STWs started for 2.75"+ hail and 80+ mph winds.
  16. George BM
    Baseball sized hail (2.75"+) and 80+ mph winds.
  17. George BM
    Right where the couplet was.
  18. George BM
    In my personal experience, and emphasis on MY personal experience , yesterday had some loose similarities to May 26, 2021 (last year) and May 14, 2018. Similar to May 26, 2021 in the sense that there were two rounds of storms round one being more isolated during the mid/late afternoon and round two pushing in from an additional line of storms from the west that rolled through more areas during the evening. Similar to May 14, 2018 in the sense that the first round of storms yesterday (yes I know that May 14, 2018 had only round of storms) made for a small temp/dewpt depression resulting in a low and dark photogenic shelf cloud through much of northern VA (like on 5/14/2018).
  19. George BM
    Update: Make that 51kts (59mph) for IAD.
  20. George BM
    Yeap. That actually appears to be what motivated the warning.
  21. George BM
    IAD just gusted to 50kts (58mph).
  22. George BM
    Yeap. Dates and days of 2022 match 2011. ... Watching the line along the Blue Ridge right now.
  23. George BM
    Mesoscale Discussion 0869 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA into the eastern WV Panhandle...MD...PA...NY...NJ...DC...and a small part of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 221620Z - 221845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and hail should increase as thunderstorms develop by early this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...Partly to mostly clear skies ahead of a front will allow the airmass to quickly destabilize into early this afternoon across parts of VA/MD/PA/NY and vicinity. A rather moist low-level airmass is in place across this region, with generally 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints. Fairly cool mid-level temperatures are also present, which coupled with continued diurnal heating will likely support MLCAPE reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. Locally greater instability is possible across PA, MD, and VA where better low-level moisture is present. The stronger mid-level flow associated with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada should remain displaced mostly to the west of the surface warm sector. Still, around 25-35 kt of southwesterly winds at 500 mb (weaker with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic) should foster similar values of effective bulk shear and some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters are expected to develop early this afternoon, initially over the higher terrain of VA/MD/PA/NY. As this activity strengthens and spreads eastward, it should be capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated hail. Most guidance suggests that initial thunderstorm development will occur by 17-18Z (1-2 PM EDT). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued around that time frame to address the increasing threat through the rest of the afternoon. ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/22/2022
  24. George BM
    IAD at 92/68 as of 2:32pm.
  25. George BM
    Ditto at IAD currently.
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