George BM

@40/70 Benchmark Looking forward to your winter outlook.

@CAPE

Not sure. But now that you made me look, IAD hit a max of 80F in Oct. It got up to 81F so far this month there.

A mild and damp start.

Forecast Discussion Wednesday, November 23, 2022 11:58AM EST NWSGeorgeBMHeadquarters A very strong and compact mid/upper level-low will continue to move ENE-wards into our region during the afternoon and into the evening. Currently ahead of it much of the area is experiencing light drizzle. Temperatures have slowly climbed to around 40F or so across the immediate Greater Washington Metropolitan region with low/mid 40s in southern and eastern MD and mid/upper 30s in far north and western regions. The Greater Metropolitan region should peak in the lower 40s over the next few hours. Afterwards, by early/mid afternoon (18z-20z) heights will fall very dramatically (500mb height falls: 12-15 dam/ 6hrs) as the compact system moves in. This will create very strong lift through a deep-layer of the atmosphere resulting in two significant things taking place. 1. Heavy precipitation will develop leading to dynamic cooling of the column allowing a quick changeover from rain to snow. With some elevated instability some elevated thunderstorms may develop, especially near the leading edge of this area of strong lift. Some small hail may even be possible with the most intense storms. But, more importantly, the snowfall rates will be very heavy. Although the system should be in and out within 6 hours there could be 1.5”+ of liquid equivalent precip within that time, much of it falling as snow. Therefore, snowfall rates could be in excess of 3”/hr. Current snow totals look to be in the 8-14”+ range. The snow will be high in moisture content (~8-10:1 ratios) leading to the potential of power outages. 2. In response to this strong mid/upper level system a surface low will rapidly strengthen over the southern Chesapeake Bay and move NE-wards across the Delmarva and into the western Atlantic through the evening as it continues to deepen. This will result in winds increasing throughout the region. Northerly wind gusts as high as 35 mph will be possible. With the very heavy snowfall rates coupled with the gusty winds, visibility will fall to below a quarter mile. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the region. Winds won’t be quite strong enough for Blizzard Warning issuances. Nonetheless, it will certainly seem blizzard-like throughout the late afternoon/evening. Overall, this will be a quick hitting and high impact event with snow departing the region by 3z tonight.

Happy Neighborhood Kids Appreciation Day!

2019. Although the bulk of the rain and storms held off until after peak trick-or-treat hours.

Yeap. Better in Novie than DJF for sure.

Did anyone else just notice that dot of light (like a planet or star) moving through the sky overhead (~70 deg. from the horizon over the SE sky, 20 deg. from vertical) in a NE-direction around 6:54pm? It seemed to be moving too fast to be the ISS but too slow to be a meteorite. The light flickered a bit. Maybe some space debris?

@WxWatcher007 It's really nice of you to assist in creating a spooky atmosphere in your neighbors lawn this Halloween season. How often do you and your friend get together for Starbucks and what's your favorite coffee?

IAD disagrees. Currently 32F at IAD. IAD freeze: 10/21

IAD bottoming out at 33F for a third morning in a row. *Correction: IAD hit 33F both Tuesday morning and before 5:00 utc Wednesday which counts as two 33F readings for Tuesday. IAD was 34F for a low between 5z Wed and 4:59z Thursday. This morning IAD hit 33F. Tues: 33F Wed: 34F Thu: 33F

IAD disagrees. 33F so far there.

IAD down to 33F...

Speaking of wind, this moment 68 years ago was windier in these parts.

A Mount PSU jackpot. So you know it's real!

Thread?

That winter and 2020/21 had a significant deficit of cold air on our side of the globe.

4 if your sensor worked on the first night.

With the obvious caveats (It's October and ssts can and will change, other things such as MJO etc. can drive the winter pattern more than other factors, etc.) aside, I don't particularly hate the current SST anomaly configuration in the northeastern Pacific (165W-120W).

Happy Birthday to you!

Indeed. It was warmer than ideal, particularly in the sun, while I was mowing the lawn the past hour.

Indeed. Nice to have the sunny warmth on my skin when I was outside mowing just now.

Extremely happy to hear this! Hoping for a full recovery and a very happy birthday for him!

More specifically, a changeover from snow to something closer to rain.