George BM

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0428.html

Am I the only one who's, perhaps irrationally, mildly annoyed that the February 1st event ruined our chance at a total 0" shutout year at the local airports? Also... That feeling when your low-end troll forecast ends up too high at the three local airports.

Looks like April will be the month coming in like a lion this year. Happy Pollen Sufferers Awareness Month to those who celebrate!

George BM: We’re gonna get SHELLACKED by wind! I can’t wait to get outside and shovel feet and feet of wind. All my neighbors will be cowering in their houses while I’ll be outside climbing tall trees and getting a free rollercoaster ride without waiting in all d’em lines or spending me money! And then… I’ll become one of only a handful of humans to take flight with no assistance from jetpacks, waterjets or any of that mumbo jumbo! Peeps brave enough to be outside across the region will wonder what kind of huge bird that is flying over them. But it’s just gonna be ME looking as elagant as an A400M! Everywhere they look it’s me! Then once I’ve mastered flying I’ll land and go from downed tree to downed tree yeeting them into woodchippers across the region bulking up my muscles as I go. By the time that’s all said and done I’ll be the strongest human in the galaxy! Alpha: BIG cringe. George BM: @Alpha Just shut up and enjoy the wind! GeorgeX: Na, I'm with alpha. You're trying too hard. George BM: Y'all the point is that it's going to be very windy. That's it and nothing more. Leave me alone.

I would ask whether it was the Nov. 20, 1989 low-dewpt derecho but I believe that may have been before your time(?)

Long-range HRRR which I, usually anyways, find does well with wind gusts in a well-mixed environment like tomorrows has 45-50+kt gusts w/ the frontal passage. A short-lived HWW or, like MN Transplant just mentioned, an April 30, 2021-like situation w/ STWs wouldn't surprise me. But I'm just reiterating what everyone has already said this morning. ... IAD got down to 35F overnight.

If you're there, particularly on Saturday, then ohhhh yeah.

We do actually get mentioned occasionally for Day 8. Far out, as you well know. But Leitman's explanation about storms from Day 7 moving into the Mid-Atlantic region w/ the risk of cloud debris and how it dictates what occurs in this region Day 8 definitely makes sense in my eyes. If nothing else, we're getting closer to the time of year where we may not have to wait weeks between convective threats.

Bingo. Knowing the region though and our history w/ synoptic winds w/ a southerly component... my expectations are definitely in check... for now. But seriously though, the sounding got my attention for sure and I'm keeping at least one eye on it. One can dream.

Not convective severe but... what else stands out to you about this skew-t profile?

I always use Metro whenever I go to the National Mall. DC parking (or lack of)... yadda yadda... no. ... Currently 64/26 at IAD for the 2pm hourly obs.

Likely at least higher-end of EF-4 IMO. Surveys will determine actual rating, of course.

I wonder how far south it was visible to the naked eye.

If we don't get too much cloud cover/shower activity during the day tomorrow CAMs such as the RAP and HRRR get us a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE w/ fast WNW flow aloft leading to decent deep-layer shear. Said clouds/showers may keep a stable-layer near the surface but there could still see a limited sub-severe hail threat... maybe an enhanced wind gust if there's more sunshine to steepen LLLRs. This a low threat overall.

Given the kinematics tomorrow would be potentially fun IF there was a little more CAPE. Early in the year for a WNW flow regime to work. Hopefully soon. We are due. ^Evergreen line above... ... Currently 50/23 at IAD.

IAD down to 23F for the low.

The annual tradition is complete!

When the tri-monthly ONI is at or above 2.0C for at least 3 consecutive months. (Ex: OND: 2.0, NDJ 2.1, DJF 2.0) +/- 1.5C strong +/- 1.0C moderate +/- 0.5C weak

32F at IAD at 11:13am.

Same. The last real areawide anomalous event... well IMO at least. Unrelated... did you notice the 61F temp/dewpt depression at 12:40pm at IAD? 60/-1 w/ relative humidity at 8%!

Looks like IAD just gusted up to 47kts(54mph).

Aye aye Captain!

11/15/2022: T (sleet) 12/10/2022: T (sleet) 12/22/2022: T (rain w/little SN/IP mixed in) 12/23/2022: T (30 sec graupel squall. The following hour... 5-10min SN/SN+) 1/08/2023: T (few sleet pellets) 1/22/2023: T (few sleet pellets at onset) 1/25/2023: T (rain/sleet mix) 2/01/2023: 0.5" (overnight -SN/SN) 2/12/2023: T (light RA/IP) 2/22/2023: T (little RA/IP mix) 2/25/2023: T (light wet snow) 3/10/2023: T (light rain/slush mix) 3/12/2023: T (Oscillating between light snow and a drizzle/snizzle mix through the afternoon.) Total as of March 12, 2023: 0.5"

11/15/2022: T (sleet) 12/10/2022: T (sleet) 12/22/2022: T (rain w/little SN/IP mixed in) 12/23/2022: T (30 sec graupel squall. The following hour... 5-10min SN/SN+) 1/08/2023: T (few sleet pellets) 1/22/2023: T (few sleet pellets at onset) 1/25/2023: T (rain/sleet mix) 2/01/2023: 0.5" (overnight -SN/SN) 2/12/2023: T (light RA/IP) 2/22/2023: T (little RA/IP mix) 2/25/2023: T (light wet snow) 3/10/2023: T (light rain/slush mix) Total as of March 10, 2023: 0.5"