George BM

IAD has risen 11F in the past hour. 57/44 10:52am 68/49 11:52am

The conversations consist of the lack of snow this winter; how many peepers cousins, uncles and aunts that flew in from VA are already hearing; betting on if/when a late season freeze damage the blossoms this year; and how those weird monstrous beings called humans can be defeated once and for all... ...Or, more likely, they're just chirping and mating and I made all the previous things up... yeah probably that. ... IAD Obs: Currently the temperature is 47F under mainly cloudy skies w/ a calm wind and 40F dewpoint.

What beer/booze do you drink during your pbp's?

Hope some of you enjoyed the hour or two of partial sunshine east of the mountains (Some veiled sun continues through high clouds from near the Blue Ridge and westwards. The overcast is back for now for the rest of us... yes I know you didn't need me to tell you that. Tomorrow will be the day. 80 watch in effect.

Looks like many areas may actually get into some fairly decent sunshine based on satellite loops, particularly in the immediate DC area and southwards.

Tornado warned supercell in NJ right now.

I'm not a trailer expert and am unsure exactly what strength the winds would have to be in order to blow a trailer over... and it also depends on the trailers profile. But what I will say is that VA to Frederick, MD is generally a north to south (or south to north in this case) path. Winds will be out of the W/WNW gusting over 50mph at times, as you already know. I guess my biggest concern would be the crosswinds that the trailer could experience during the trip. Usually blow-overs occur when crosswinds are stronger say 60, 70+mph? But the weight of the trailer also matters, of course. Most likely the trailer will be fine but I'm no expert at this stuff. Hopefully someone with more knowledge answers your question.

Now some CAMs have up to 200+J/kg CAPE w/ steep LLLRs when the front moves through between midday and 3pm tomorrow. Some CAMs develop showers along/near said front. Given the thermodynamics and kinematics in place I would think there could be enhanced wind gusts, particularly w/ any heavier showers that form. Some smail hail would also looks possible w/ the most intense showers, along with a lightning bolt or two. Shower potential increases the further north you are in the area.

Another very gusty afternoon it looks like coming up this Tuesday w/ steep 0-2km LRs and 1-2km winds into the 40s(kts)... at least on the HRRR. Got to imagine that other CAMs are fairly similar.

Assuming we don't go below 26F at IAD before midnight the high/low at IAD for today looks like: 48/26 Today's average at IAD: 47/27 +1/-1 Perfectly balanced... as all should be.

Not the classic kind that people are referring to with a 50-100 mile wide strip of light (sometimes mod+) snow oriented from west to east across the region associated with overrunning and/or a jet streak, no.

January 6, 2015 is the one I remember well. V-Day 2015 was everyones favorite snow squall(s) of recent times. Well the associated shortwave did enter the US from near Alberta but the strongest forcing by far came along the arctic front.

So IAD gusted up to 50kts(58mph) late last hour. Winds: NW 33mph Gusts: 58mph for the 5pm obs there.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 321 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ028-031-052>054-501- 505>508-WVZ051>053-180000- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0005.230217T2021Z-230218T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Frederick VA-Clarke-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Winchester, Berryville, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 321 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...Northern and central Maryland, the Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas, northern Virginia,the Blue Ridge Mountains, and the eastern Panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$

Event of the year thus far...

HRRR actually has 1km winds into the low 40s (kts) (~50 mph) tomorrow afternoon w/ CAA behind the front. Perhaps we get a Wind Advisory?

Still 65/41 at IAD at 8:29pm.

Severe wind...true. Wind strong enough to be a nuisance but too weak to induce adrenaline... that's constant.

Made it! Currently 70/43 at IAD.

Some decent digital wind for next Friday on todays 12z GFS.

It's definitely becoming noticeable how much higher in the sky the sun is now at solar noon than it was in December.

Wow. Over twice as much as the 1.01" IAD recorded. The band must have set up just N and W of the airport over you.

PHL 58 - KC 37

11/15/2022: T (sleet) 12/10/2022: T (sleet) 12/22/2022: T (rain w/little SN/IP mixed in) 12/23/2022: T (30 sec graupel squall. The following hour... 5-10min SN/SN+) 1/08/2023: T (few sleet pellets) 1/22/2023: T (few sleet pellets at onset) 1/25/2023: T (rain/sleet mix) 2/01/2023: 0.5" 2/12/2023: T (light RA/IP) Total as of February 12, 2023: 0.5"

IAD holding at 69F.