George BM

IAD has hit 90F via 1-min obs. http://iadasos.org/IAD/index.html

Bring us home!

Happy Meteorological/Climatological summer! Happy Hurricane Season!

Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 32 11AM EDT Friday, August 25, 2023 Max Sustained Winds: 230mph, Gusts: 280mph Moving: NNW(345*) at 29mph Min Sea-Level Pressure: 832mb Idalia has taken advantage of the 35-36C SSTs off the southeastern US w/ limited shear and a moist environment available and has become an unprecedently catastrophic category 5. Idalia will race inland over the Carolinas and northwards over the Mid-Atlantic region through the day ahead of an advancing through coming out of the west and will blast into the interior northeast and southeastern Canada by late this evening. An unfathomable storm surge of upwards of 50 feet is expected along the North Carolina coast from Wilmington to Morehead City with a catastrophic surge up the Chesapeake Bay all the way up through Long Island, NY. Hurricane Warnings extend north through the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, northeast and into southeastern Canada and the Great Lakes. Rainfall will easily total 1 to 2 feet in these areas w/ localized amounts upwards of 3 feet in the Appalachians. Widespread hurricane-force winds will cause extreme wind damage through the warned area with extreme (115+mph winds) extending as far inland as places such as Toronto, Canada and Syracuse, NY. Satellite Image: 10:50AM EDT August 25, 2023 Them dastardly underwater volcanoes at it again.

The batch of high clouds moving overhead should make for a gorgeous sunset this evening w/ little/no additional cloud cover to the WNW (sunset-direction).

Now I'm -2...

I heard thunder for the first time this month yesterday. Though not to this extent AND not implying that the pattern will repeat but... I remember 2012 being quite convection-wise before the end of May into June.

weather.us/lightning A good free site for seeing lightning activity over the past 24 hours.

Strong negative CG.

There's a good chance that I won't hear a single rumble of thunder this month. Not to common to not hear any thunder in the month of May here. There may have been audible thunder at my location on the 20th but I was busy doing some things and didn't notice.

Different view of the same dust devil.

Extreme Congratulations! A Severe Celebration Warning is in effect.

This will be the last of the smoky haze for a bit. Definitely the haziest May that I can remember... at least when it comes to smoke being aloft in the atmosphere.

54/52 at IAD as of last hour w/, of course, hazy skies.

Indeed. Probably not much happening with it but NHC has a 10% lemon on it.

GFS... Anyways... currently 57/55 at IAD.

A relatively thick band of smoke from Canada's fires moving in overhead this morning. The sun will look dark and strange. 61/50 at IAD.

Tomorrow looks hazy with smoke layer currently over Ontario moving overhead.

Here comes a little of that Alberta fire smoke haze for sunset.

The GFS shows MLCAPE >1000J/kg on Monday in the region w/ that modest NW flow. We are getting closer to peak severe season in these parts.

Starting off cool and breezy w/ damp soil.

Forecast Discussion Tuesday, June 20, 2023 10:58AM EDT Flash Flood Watch in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until 5am EDT Wednesday, June 21, 2023. Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the greater Washington/Baltimore Metro area until further notice. Discussion: Heavy rains will continue to overspread the region as the center of Tropical storm Bret moves up the Chesapeake Bay. Interaction with a shortwave trough to the west over the Ohio Valley will help enhance lift and, therefore, the rainfall in the area extending roughly 50-100mi west of the center. This, of course, will put these enhanced tropical rainbands over The DC metro and the western half of the Baltimore metro. With Pwats of around 2.5”, high freezing levels (~15-16kft) and strong forcing from the trough to the west a large 50+ mile wide band of 2-3”+/hr rainfall rates w/ even higher rates in embedded bands. This will allow much of the area between I-81 and the Chesapeake Bay to receive upwards of 12-18”+ of rain w/ local amounts eclipsing 2' possible. This will lead to catastrophic flooding not only in flood prone areas but also flooding in many areas that don’t normally flood or have NEVER flooded before. The heaviest rainfall rates will occur over the region between midday and 8pm this evening. Another factor from Bret will be strong NE, northerly, then NW winds. The highest winds will occur between 2pm this afternoon and 9pm this evening when winds could gust 40 to 60mph. This may lead to scattered to numerous power outages from fallen trees especially when considering how wet it’s already been since the end of April. … Bottom line is that this is the beginning of a very high impact event for the region. Impacts from this will be felt for many weeks or even months. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

Torrential rain w/ 25+ mph gusts when it came through here in Herndon. A few lightning strikes.

Nearly 2"/hr... wait... wrong precip-type.

1.00" at IAD.