George BM

LOL my neighbor just started mowing their lawn. Probably wants less grass blades sticking up in the off-chance of any grassy accumulation. Got to have as wintry a look as possible.

That didn't take too long. Seeing small flakes now. There's my two days of 'T's in a row.

I'm next.

Just had a brief gusty rain/graupel shower here. (Herndon, VA) Trace.

Nice downpour here in Herndon now.

Just had a lightning strike and thunder.

There's the Wind Advisory for tonight. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 555 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ040-053-054-501- 505-506-526-527-210600- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0018.241121T0100Z-241121T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Rappahannock-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 555 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central, north central, northeast, northern, and southern Maryland, and northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect winds to suddenly increase this evening between 8 PM to 11 PM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. && $$

Looks like a good number of us will record at least 'T's two days in a row. Tomorrow, as high risk mentioned, looks good for convective graupel showers especially during the afternoon. I wouldn't be too surprised to even see some more legit snowflakes mix in with graupel in the most intense showers given the freezing-level falling to below 900mb w/ steep LLLRs and temps only in the mid/upper 40s at the surface during the afternoon. Friday, as has been said and shown repeatedly, looks good for flakes flying through the air as the surface low to the north loops south. Fun little period coming up... I guess I can also mention the gusty downpours for tonight as well w/ the cold front but I figured that most in here care more about the good white stuff. Let's will this low about 125 miles further southwest.

Random thought. I don't believe we been placed in anything above a SLGT risk by SPC this year. If we don't get an ENH+ through the rest of the year, then, IIRC, it would be the first time at least from 2002 onwards (this is the period that I remember) that we failed to have anything above a minimal SLGT risk issued by SPC for the immediate DC metro.

What was the indoor temp?

Wet.

What's your current guess for RIC?

Rafael. Patty is a subtropical storm near the Azores right now.

Here we go ... Yet another one of George's weenie fantasies. 12:52PM EST Wednesday, December 25, 2024 High Wind Warning in effect from 12PM EST Wednesday, December 25, 2024 until 3AM EST Thursday, December 26, 2024. PDS Tornado Watch in effect until 6PM EST Wednesday, December 25, 2024. Discussion: We are about to experience the true limits of what nature can offer in the region. A life-threatening tornado and severe weather outbreak will impact the region this afternoon as well as dangerous synoptic hurricane force wind gusts behind the cold front from late afternoon into the evening. A very potent and compact shortwave trough is racing eastwards out of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and is taking on a negative tilt as it does so. The cold front associated with it will blast through the entire region from west to east between 2pm and 5pm local time at around 65-70kts. As the potent, compact shortwave approaches from the WSW an extraordinarily strong low-level jet ahead of the associated front is bringing in record shattering warmth and unseasonably high humidity from the south. Another thing that it is bringing with it are damaging southeasterly winds. With a tight surface pressure gradient along with the ample sunshine steepening low-level lapse-rates to above 7C/km some of the winds aloft will mix down to the surface resulting in gusts of around 55 to 65mph. With the sunshine in place, temps have already risen into the upper 70s to near 80F and will top out into the 80-82F range in most places before the cold front and associated storms arrive. Dewpoints have risen into the mid/upper 60s and will remain in the upper 60sF ahead of the front. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates along with a shallow warm-layer aloft have advected into the region from Mexico. The steep environmental lapse rates, which will only get steeper as mid-level temps cool (down to -15C to -16C at 500mb), along with the record warm and moist low levels will allow MLCAPE to rise to 2000-3000J/kg which is just absurd for this time of year. A line of severe thunderstorms will move in along the cold front and several supercells are expected to form immediately ahead of the main line (mostly within 30-40 miles of the line). Mid-level southwesterly winds will increase to 120-140+kts as the potent and compact shortwave races over the region. The area will get under a region of strong lift as the left-exit region of a mid/upper-level jet streak moves overhead. Effective bulk shear will exceed 100kts and with the steep MLLRs and associated cool mid-level temps overhead, Lifted-Index values will drop to near -10. As a result, supercell updrafts will be strong enough to overcome the excessive shear allowing for extremely potent supercells. Tornado threat: All the above combined with excessive low-level shear (effective SRH of 500-800m2/s2) and large low-level CAPE will allow for very favorable conditions for several long-track and violent tornadoes with supercells. These tornadoes will be moving to the northeast at incredible speeds of up to and over 80 mph. Do not wait to be able to hear or see the tornado to take shelter as you will run out of time. Several QLCS tornadoes are likely with the main line as well, especially within bowing segments. With the very fast forward motion of the line, embedded circulations will have very fast winds on their southeast sides leading to EF2+ damage being likely with them, similar to what happened in the Great Plains on December 15, 2021. Wind threat: The wind threat will be widespread and destructive, particularly with bowing segments that develop in the main line of storms. With downdraft CAPE in excess of 1300J/kg and unusually moist Pwats of near 1.5” along with the strong instability in general, microbursts/macrobursts could occur allowing for swaths of extensive to extreme wind damage with gusts well over 100mph possible. Hail threat: The hail threat will also be extraordinary for the region. With the steep MLLRs allowing for large CAPE through the hail-growth zone along with the impressive mid-level shear, hail in excess of 4” in diameter could occur with supercells. The cool air aloft and dynamics will allow for severe hail (1-2” in diameter) even within the line. Rainfall: Most places will quickly receive between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain. Localized spots that get hit by both supercells and the line could get up to 1.5”+ of rain. The very fast storm motions will prevent higher totals. Now comes what happens behind this cold front. As the front moves through there will be a strong pressure surge (rise in surface air pressure). With cold air advection allowing for more efficient mixing and an 80+ kt low-level wind overhead, winds will gust up to 80mph or so worsening the damage that will have already been done by the thunderstorms. During this time temperatures will rapidly fall into the lower 40s through the early evening hours. Thereafter, winds will weaken a bit. But that’s relative as they will still be gusting upwards of 50 to 60mph through around midnight and will still be gusting up to around 40 mph by dawn Thursday. Thursday morning it will be blustery with temps bottoming out in the lower 30s giving the airports a decent chance at the first freeze since December 9th. Windchills will bottom out in the mid/upper teens. This will mark the start of a colder pattern for the foreseeable future with increasing chances of measurable snow by the weekend with a shortwave moving northeast from the deep south and additional snow chances next week and into the new year. - GBM