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Wetbulbs88

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Everything posted by Wetbulbs88

  1. Not a flake in sight. Plain Jane rain. I don't think we even start accumulating until after dark at this rate.
  2. Light rain here in Chevy Chase. Please include your location for folks on phones!
  3. Too bullish for central Maryland and too bearish for eastern but I hope you’re right!
  4. On TT it's showing 4" for DC and Baltimore. QPF pushes 1"+ so that makes no sense. What gives?
  5. Am I missing something, or is modeling still jumping around with the Low a lot before it finally phases and reaches the benchmark? Someone smarter than me answer please.
  6. GFS seemed like a step back. We’d really rely on the IVT. hopefully the other more western depictions of the field work out.
  7. The model that nailed our last snowstorm? The NAM is right sometimes, about some things. Just like the others.
  8. So how does this square with snow maps from the exact same model?
  9. Living in NYC was noticeably easier. Models generally trended TOWARD snow far more often than here.
  10. Usually these things take longer to get cranking than modeled. I feel good about our timing.
  11. Is this because of the lack of upper flow energy? The distinction at times seems arbitrary.
  12. Anyone smarter than me explain why Kuchie is lower than 10:1? Marginal temps?
  13. Happens roughly 95% of the time. Our storm either becomes their storm or becomes more their storm.
  14. Except it was way overdoing things to begin with. It’s probably a form more realistic solution now. I would very much take this in a heartbeat. I’m hoping this is what actually verifies.
  15. This reminds me of Boxing Day 2011. Which does not make me feel good. GFS was the loan out wire showing a massive hit for DC and then we got nothing. Hoping we can overcome climo which typically jumps us on the coastal development.
  16. My thoughts exactly. If we need the coastal to win we are in trouble, strictly speaking by climo. But even then, the Euro doesn't hate us. So I'm not exactly uncomfortable as much as...cautiously optimistic.
  17. I hate to be that guy but while we might have movement toward the GooFuS, we have nothing that comes close to it outside the Euro AI which is 300 miles east. Don’t get me wrong I’m having a blast tracking this one. But given the changes in the upper levels on the GFS I’m not convinced. I might be alone in this but honestly regardless of how much we get, this has been a one of one tracking experience. I can’t remember a situation with this much disparity. It’s utterly fascinating.
  18. I’ve said it once I’ll say it again. By far my favorite storm of all time.
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