Wetbulbs88

It's my fault guys. I just moved back here from Harlem so the bad luck is following me. In 2016 I took the bus down here because New York wasn't in on the goods--until like 46 hours out or less. I swear I have the worst luck in the world!

I don't this is necessarily true. I'm pretty sure in 2016 the low was well north of us by the time that second wave of banding swept through, then it stalled there and just eroded before drifting out to sea. I get that the stuff out west isn't the deform but it very well could be if the phase was cleaner and more juiced. Perhaps I'm wrong about that, I'll have to go check the archives.

Very interesting. Thanks for sharing this.

Honestly just looking at that setup...Hard to imagine we don't have a better precip shield on the western side. Is there something I'm missing with the dynamics that's keeping this from turning into one of those classic quarter circles from DC-Boston?

It's time to just look at the radar or the really short term models. The NAM is probably right, but it's not really the most useful tool right now. Whatever the WAA was 'supposed' to do means diddly squat now. The radar shows that it's passing us and we're going to have to get some pretty decent redevelopment on the back end to cash in significantly (at least here in DC, you're definitely in a better spot). Our best chance at a bunch more is with the coastal (for which you're also in a better spot). Most of your posts are looking for details and forecasts that just aren't possible at this point. You're going to have to learn from experience how these things tend to work--which in this case is that these Miller Bs indeed do tend to jump us. Things have not been going our way so far, but this is East Coast winter weather, anything can happen. I remember the second Feb 2010 blizzard came out of absolutely nowhere. If the coastal's precip shield is wider than expected, if the Low stalls farther south and west, etc. etc. Just have to wait and see.

Decent returns on radar starting to fill in but not translating out my window (yet).

What radar are you using? I swear, last time I'll ask haha.

Got me excited for a moment. Back to snizzle Let's see if we can catch some back end on the overrunning before this thing lifts.

Just curious but are you calling it already for a bust on the low end? I feel like we've always got a shot when the coastal winds up. May not deliver all the goods but we could get to that forecasted 4-8" range.

You the best!

You guys are changing lives out here. Thanks so much.

I know this is really stupid but...how the heck do you change locations? Trying to get a vantage from farther SW.

You are an absolute godsend. Thank you.

Does anyone have decent radar I can use? I swear I've lost everything after moving back here

Maybe it's the artificial optimist in me, but I think over the next several hours we're going to begin to see the low redeveloping off the coast and backfilling across the DC area. You can see the nascence of it on radar, just at the end of its loops. It's going to tease you for a couple hours so be prepared for that, but give it enough time and it will fill. The question is whether it fills too far E/NE, but that's another battle for another time.

Tricky rule haha. What qualifies as snow? I’ve got flakes but not much. I think we’re going to fill in soon though. It’s going to be a very interesting event!

Hang in there bud. I think we’re in for some surprises. This has just gotten started.

Also I’m telling y’all. These Miller B’s are just way too complicated for the models to handle to the last detail. This is going to be a LONG storm with MANY surprises.

I’m still holding out for some major backfilling on this overrunning as the low organizes off the coast. And then we’ll still get a shot at the CCB. Let’s just see what happens and enjoy the day.

Yeah this trend is real. And some of the crappier short terms have us in the deforms already. I'll take 4-8" with the opportunity for upside any day here.

More of a location thing but yet I think there could be some 30" lollis in PA/NJ

I said this earlier but this reminds me of PDII but not quite as juiced and slightly north. We were insanely cold during the overrunning and got SLAMMED. Then we went up past 32 with sleet and a little rain even right near the end as the deform pulled north.

Congrats Baltimore. Hang that nose a little lower, like some good old cave stalactite!

Ughhh. Now THAT looks like a typical Miller B screw job for our area. We'll see what happens. There's always a chance that CCB sets up south. With the low placement where it's projected, it's not impossible. Also in my memory overrunning tends to be under modeled but maybe I'm wrong.

Wish Ray's Winter Storm Archive went further than 2012-2013. Hard to find comprehensive documentation of past storms after that.