Wetbulbs88

The NAM nest has been incredibly spot on for this thus far with the banding. I really think the NAMs get a bad rap (no pun intended?).

100%. Should have been up to Baltimore at the very most. No business being up near the M/D line. In all likelihood DC will be the northernmost jack zone for this. Modeling is pretty much in consensus at this point.

SN+ since roughly 4PM or a bit before. Hopefully we can stay under this firehose!

Tough to see that firehose waste so much QPF literally just south of us. It's edging north but still not quite here. Push baby, push!

Still just heavy flurries for the past 1.5 hours. The goods are flirting with DC per radar, should be any minute now...

Flurries here in AdMo. Radar looks fantastic. Far more of a SW-NE orientation than modeling made me believe. Should be flipping to SN/SN+ within the hour.

Eat your soup, Billy.

HRRR continues to be on another planet with QPF. Strange. I've never found it to be very useful but let's see if it verifies. It's been very consistent.

Boozy jebwalk complete. Beautiful.

We've got about two hours at most here in DC. Consolidation on radar occurred too late for us. But points north and east will do well. A nice burst here in the meantime.

Hugging the RAP until I see the light and life flash before my eyes.

Gorgeous outside. Great rates.

Ahhh. That's quite a difference!

Highly doubt that. I'm in DC as well. We did not get a foot.

We should temper expectations about tonight. Models are depicting rapid deterioration after crossing the Apps. This could be the headfake they're depicting. Hope I'm wrong. I've been kind of looking forward to this the whole day. Would leave a little bit of a bad taste in my mouth for this to be pulled last minute after such a nice storm.

I can't fault them for their call. Climo called for banding on the north side. Just didn't happen. Instead we got a loose piece way up north. The NAM was right on target at the final hour. I keep saying every year that the NAM is nowhere near as bad as people like to think when used correctly. Very happy with the result down here in DC. (I'm actually in Adams Morgan now; I need to change my location.)

Went out around 4:30 with the dog for about an hour or so. Was absolutely gorgeous. About 3" at that time. Wouldn't be surprised if we're above 6" now. The models had this correct 48 hours out before the last norther shift. This was a southern MD/VA special. But we hit the low end of our range, and with more light stuff to come later on. I'm not complaining.

True. And I don't discount the NAM completely like some others. HRRR on the fringe somewhat but getting into range.

I think the north-south banding approach is a pretty good bet so I like their call. I don't like this setup for us in DC. We tend to get caught in the middle because there's elevation to the north and the core moisture brunt to the south. But hopefully I'm just bracing myself against the potential for failure. Also hard to see us fall shy of warning-level criteria.

Exactly. In an earlier post I mentioned no models showing 4" above M/D. I stand corrected because the GFS is basically the only one.

It's not much different than the last run. Still not all that similar to the Euro.

Yeah this is absolutely nuts. This close to gametime, not sure I remember this much divergence.

This seems far too north and wide given recent guidance. I don't think any model shows more than 4" above M-D Line. Points for being independent-minded. Hope this pans out!

Been reading for the last four days. I'm now convinced the closest analogue here is January 2010, roughly 2-3 weeks before Snowmageddon. People forget the number of storms we had in '09-'10. We got quite a bit of snow outside the three blizzards. This analogue isn't on Ray's storm archive because it didn't really reach NJ. But it was depicted by several models to blast NC and VA, leaving DC with a few Advisory-level inches--and while the former came true, the moisture shield spread much farther north than anticipated. I was working at SUBWAY in College Park as a senior in college, and I remember getting snowed in at work. We easily got 6-8" that day. The track and setup are very similar here. I'm betting the precip shield ends up blooming norther than depicted now, with a wider max stripe.

If you need a sense of certainty, I guess. If you’re being realistic, it’s impossible to say.