Wetbulbs88
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Everything posted by Wetbulbs88
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Still just moderate snow here. Really tough to get rates in my area. But nice to look at.
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Wow if it's already snowing down there this thing is really crashing temps. It was just raining up here like 20 minutes ago. Wild.
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Woke up and saw dry ground. Rubbed my eyes. Opened the radar. Looked again and saw wet ground. Three minutes later it’s pouring fatties.
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38 here in Chevy chase. Pounding ice cream and obsessing over the radar like a spurned teen girl plotting to get her ex back.
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Some > none
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I’d be more than okay with the higher end of guidance.
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Current temps really aren’t the biggest issue. Rates are. if the column can cool dynamically it won’t matter. Also wet bulbs will bring it down.
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Exactly. Have to look at the radar now too. Also that must’ve been an earlier ICON run. I remember there wS a banger earlier today.
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To be fair, if it ends up being right then it scores a huge coup over pretty much every model. More than for being closer, but also for ‘finding’ the idea as time went on. There’s something to look at if that happens.
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The last ICON was solid right? Cant get it on tidbits.
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Wow yeah it’s definitely much newer. It shoots you off at 120mph and you go straight up 420’ then straight down. I saw one run not crest the top and come back down backward. Half the ride was in tears when it stopped back at start. edit: sorry last banter post.
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Not sure if you’ve ever been on the Top Thrill Dragster, but that one is almost unmanageable.
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People bash the NAM but I think those days are long gone. IMO it’s been as reliable as any model given its range and purpose. I’ve been leaning on it for this storm and think it will provide the more likely scenario. Radar is matching more with its depiction, it’s been in its range for the past 24 hours, and climo suggested the precip shield would expand (particularly with that NW band—rarely do we get a storm that doesn’t provide that crew a boost even if just because of better lifting.
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I'm going to call this the cedar point storm because the Rollercoaster ride for this event has been off the chart I love cedar point!
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That happened January 2010. We were only supposed to get like 2-4. Richmond still got its foot plus but the shield was far more expansive and robust than expected.
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Could also just happen in real time.
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Is that a bit juicier than 12z? Did it shift NW at all? Seems like it but I’m checking between stoplights.
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That would be a tectonic disaster.
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The axis of heavy precip and evolution are similar.
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NAM
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I'll add that the 12K isn't any better, but it provides better overall guidance IMO. We'll see tomorrow whether we get less than .5 around here or not.
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I disagree. The 3K performs quite terribly from my experience. It TRIES to perform better, but it can't.
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Honestly, I tend to read the PBP before heading to TTB myself because I get too much nervous excitement to ruin the drama. But the NAM doesn't look half bad. And the 3k...well I really don't trust it to be honest. For a high res model, I find it to be pretty bad at the QPF side especially when it comes to banding. Not bashing it or anything, but a NAM outcome with dynamic cooling would be an excellent outcome. I'll take a Euro/NAM blend and call it a day.
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LOL.
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Ugh....south trend when we need north....north trend when we need south. Same story different day. I'm going to hold out hope for a 25 mile jog NW at game time. Or we could have a January 2010 deal where the precip shield is more robust than modeled. Never give up.
