PowderBeard

What a mess, intermittent power and internet this morning makes remote teaching fun. A couple folks on the town's FB mentioned a transformers blowing around town. 

Some pine damage at a local park just south of us.

GFS really bringing the cold shot after this week. Euro disagrees.

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Dang. Didn't Mt. Tom have a nasty microburst a few years back too?

Yup, almost to the day. https://www.masslive.com/news/2015/10/1_year_later_mount_tom_recover.html

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, none taken.  I actually did that, literally.  Stowe used to have the “Great 48” and it was only 48 trails, top-to-bottom.  One of the very first tasks I had when I started in 2008 was to change the trail map to more accurately represent the mountain in terms of open terrain, and increase our trail count for marketing (Bolton Valley had like 60 trails I think?  Stowe was the smallest mountain in Vermont per trail count with only 48, lol).

Aside from marketing, a big issue was if you ski here, you’d know we really had “48 partially open trails.”  There'd be times when literally almost every trail was “partially open” which confused the hell out of people...because only in mid-season snowpack with good conditions would many of the trails be fully open top-to-bottom.

Now Ski Patrol had them internally sort of hacked up into different trails anyway in their lingo, because you have to when describing stuff over the radio (like they already named things upper/lower etc).  An injured skier would call and the nearest trail sign says Lord and I have a broken leg.  Well that’s a couple miles and 2,000 vertical feet of possibilities.  Now they say the nearest sign says “Lower Lord” so patrol can quickly know where they are.

So I worked with the Patrol director and others to break up the trails into how the mountain skied, what our normal closures are, access points to trails, etc.  So now Starr and Lower Starr can be marked on the report as open, and Upper Starr (steep rocky headwall) can be marked as closed.  I do think that’s better for communicating rather than saying “Starr is partially open.”  Sometimes only Lower Starr is open from Shiftrs Shot, too.  So you’d see Starr is partially open before 2008 on the report but have no idea what “part” was actually open.

Marketing got a great trail count boost and it’s much more functional for figuring out what’s actually open and serves as easier to communicate with ski patrol and the public. 

Tough task. But absolutely, it all made perfect sense. 

Might have to ask for one for Christmas. I love how he incorporates the terrain so "pods" stick out like at Pico or Sugarbush.  One of my favorite maps was the early 2000s Stowe map, then they had to go name everything Upper/Middle/Lower (no disrespect PF, I get why) and cluttered it up.  At least there is no "Starr Headwall."

11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m stuck at home with work stuff but I’m chomping at the bit to get out around town with the camera. Based on all of the posts local FB peeps are making there is a ton of storm damage.
counting my blessings we only had pinecones come down. 

Yea just took a break from grading papers since I couldn't see straight anymore and took a drive. If anyone had a dead oak or weak pine in their yard, good chance it is down. I saw at least 8-9 driveways blocked by large trees. Only a couple of wires down surprisingly. 

What a mess. Local schools saying "all remote" today yet the majority of town is without power. Trees down everywhere and many roads blocked. Looks like a similar situation for a lot of UMass faculty. Already received numerous emails of cancelations. 

Had about a 70' dead oak come down in the woods behind our house. That was some serious wind. 

WTF! Hail, lightning, and roaring winds came in like a wall. 0-60 real quick.

When did sunset become 5:05? Damn

Gone severe. Thunder rumbling.

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My school has a virtual open house tonight.   Hope I keep power/internet

Ha! As does my wife's. Could be interesting. 

Steady 15-20mph breeze. Looks like down the road had a gust to 37.

36 minutes ago, Heat Miser said:

I sat in the dark for a full week after that storm.

Yea, trying to work or have school remotely with no power/internet for days is a bit tricky to say the least. 

Leaves really popping against the dark sky with a steady 10-15 mph breeze, so nice out.

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Quick tenth of an inch last hour and raining steadily.  Cold 51F up here at 1,500ft and looks like 53F down in town.

Strong westerly flow downsloping into BTV area and then upsloping again into the Greens and east of the Spine.  Should see a standing wave pattern develop for a bit here with that up/down/up couplet as moisture hits the Adirondacks, drops/dries into the Champlain Valley and then rises again over the Greens and gets shoved way eastward in the fast flow.

The atmospheric speed bumps are working.

 

I hope to see a lot of these images posted November - April. 

 NE Mass to Portsmouth, NH area seems pretty prime too for gusts. 

High wind warnings for most of Mass and this thread has 7 posts? I'm surprised, guess we all have been burned too many times.

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Always to go persistence/emotions when forecasting.

Exactly, I don't even need to look at models. I won't be able to ski as much this year because we have a 1 year old and am in the home stretch of finishing up my doctorate, thus epic snows everywhere.

28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX hitting the winds

Yea not messing around. Was surprised to see their last two FB posts.

Right on the edge of 2-3" or 3-4".

17" on top of the 8-10" from the day before.

I remember just this tiny band on radar that wouldn't let up. Forgot to get an image of it because I did not think it would go to 2" per hour for several hours between midnight and 4am. 

First snow for Phin? 

1 hour ago, radarman said:

 

Niehues map of MRG came out today

Mother of God it's beautiful. Love the "bumps" or texture on things like Quacky 1-4, Lift Line. Definitely put some heavy detail on the stuff out past Paradise. Same around "Cantalope". 

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Lol That video shows how afraid Joe BUSTardi is of loosing the east coast weenie cult following he has. “Let’s mention that 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 are on my ‘analog’ list”.  He’s a clown

Well correlations and associations = causation...right? 

I'm really curious about if, and how, mediation/moderation, HLM, and other regression models are used in forecasting. Would help in explaining variance. 

On 9/25/2020 at 4:24 PM, tamarack said:

Finally found some pike at North Pond (Belgrades) after not seeing one this year.  After 3 hours with just a single yellow perch, was drifting and casting my way back toward the landing when a 20-inch fish nailed the spinner 3 feet from the canoe.  Dropped anchor there and tossed out the spinner a few times, then decided to try the much bigger (1 oz.) faux-Dardevle.  Shortly thereafter got a 25" fish, probably about 4 lb.  Fish stew upcoming. 

Great Pond is loaded with them, some monster four footers too. Should be prime jerkbait time up there for smallies and you'd definitely run into some pike.