PowderBeard

That would be nice. From BOX...

 I`ve stressed higher snow amounts
further to the north and west; after a front-end-thump of heavy snow
overnight, this transitions into a potentially slow-pivoting
snowband affecting the Berkshires, western/central MA into Hartford
and northern Tolland Counties in CT. There is still spatial
uncertainty in where this band may set up, and while amounts here
were raised into the 12-18" range, local amounts in this admittedly
rather broad area could be as much as 20" for those who happen to
remain in this quasi-stationary band.

Hoping to try this area for the first time tomorrow, about 600' of nicely spaced and clean woods There is another area close by that is similar but much steeper and would need 10" of cement not blower.

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But the soil temps..

Oh stop. It's all about sun angle. Especially with these overnight deals.

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Hoping we somehow get into a good band.. curious to see if the 12z models get rid of the snow hole.. I think it has some to do with being between two good bands.  

Exactly what happened for this storm March 6-7. Was painful. I think we only had 5-6" in Amherst from this. Just watched the radar get shredded while both east and west were pounding. 

26 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Box going 12 to 18 with amounts up to 20.. guess we wait to see the models today and how things play out but they seem to be going big

Yea I'm excited to see how it pans out. There is some serious micro stuff in this area. As radarman mentioned earlier in this thread, and told me when I moved here, the difference between living off rt. 21 and 202 in Granby can be 8" vs 1" of slush. Same for 202 north of town vs. south. Even when it R/S is not a concern, center of town can get baking powder and 3-4" for the duration of a storm and Swift River area is 8-10". It's fun for sure.

I think BOX is "going big" because of ratios. This should be more of a 12-14:1 storm. Closer to some of those Kuchie maps than the standard 10:1.

4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

If taken verbatim 10 to 12 is still a great event, but if it is a 3 to 6 boxing  day redux then forget it

Yup, up until yesterday I was still thinking 6-8" and am still doubtful of 10+ here. We have done so well the past few years in terms of snow and severe here we are due for a bust while other areas rake. If things are white and it results in a snowday for my wife I'm happy. The tracking of this event has been fun and quite the learning experience.

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z rpm (09z is still running)

That snowhole over my house is consistent on so many models and was initially showing up 3-4 days ago. Pretty funny stuff. 

16 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

7F.

Nice. 

Forgot what 13* felt like until I walked outside in shorts, a t-shirt, and boots on this morning to get some firewood. 

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gotta use it to figure out what VT ski area gets the most snow.  Think you gotta ride with Mt Snow but I was thinking the banding on NAM might have been north of that even.

Definitely. Mohawk/Sundown for the New England jack? lol

1 hour ago, MRVexpat said:

Latest guidance has me questioning where to head for some human powered laps Saturday morning...anyone here ever skin Brodie? 

Youll get busted for trespassing. Super strict. 

So many ticks north definitely seeing some dryslot potential in central/western CT up through central Mass. Still lots of time to figure that one out. 

Bust...

Definitely a good step.

We should have ratios higher than 10:1, just a matter of what is there for liquid. 

NAM at 63hrs would be my projected snowfall forecast at this point. 

Looks like one more small band to quickly move through. Will finish at just below 1". Driveway has a light coat but not roads. 

All this lead up, I remember my intro to these forums for the January 2015 blizzard, if I remember correctly there was not much on models until 2/3 days before. So much time and changes to go.

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Good explanation of setup

1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

they tossed the NAM, 2-6" up here yikes.

I appreciate chance for change in that write-up along with the "here is current interpretation" piece. 

16 month old is just staring out the windows. Holiday mood snow.

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

whats good (liquor) to put in eggnog for a drink?

Don't even play around.

BOX 

System passing through region today will intensity rapidly over
Maritimes over next few days. This becomes critical to the track
of the winter storm since it affects flow downstream from us,
mainly by helping strengthen confluent flow aloft which in turn
prevents ridging from helping to slow down and maintain
strength of upper trough. This should result in opening up of
500 mb low, which is shown by just about all models with
exception of 00z NAM which is an outlier and does not fit this
expectation.

Upstream, we also do not see much upper level ridging across
northern Rockies which would be needed to help deepen trough
over eastern states. This also allows system to open up as it
passes our region instead of closing off or maintaining its
strength.

What all this means is there is less of a chance that coastal
low comes much closer to coast than 40/70 and it won`t have a
chance to deepen rapidly as it passes our area, thus limiting
impacts such as widespread heavy snow and strong winds. In
addition, models show strongest 850 wind field and moisture
convergence across NJ and Long Island before both weaken with
time as they reach SNE.

All of these factors argue against a "blockbuster storm" for the
entire region but there are other considerations that certainly
favor heavy snow including presence of deep southern stream
moisture and a cold airmass in place which should yield high
snow to water ratios (fluffy snow). There is likely to be a
tight snowfall gradient somewhere in northern MA (thinking Route
2 right now) but this could shift north or even south in future
model runs. It does look like best chance for seeing 6-12" of
snow is along and south of the Mass Pike with 2-6" north of
there, but again, this may shift in later forecasts. Then
there`s the issue of low level temperatures which may cause
p-type issues or prevent accumulations on the outer Cape and
Nantucket.

Just now, WinterWolf said:

So it’s not 24-30 hrs..?  

This should be up there with "making its own cold."

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m afraid today’s mainly a rainer . NAM blew this one 

Better snow growth now. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I looked at hr 60 on 12k and 3K nam and don't see any appreciable difference.

Yea it catches up in the Chesapeake Bay area around 60.