PowderBeard

36 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Probably a good guess, I was thinking maybe somewhere in Kansas or Missouri

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tornadoes_striking_downtown_areas_of_large_cities

I think one of the more memorable ones,  though only an F2, was in Salt Lake City. 

5 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Ya I am NOT liking this radar.  Waiting for a Tornado Warning to come out.  

I was actually referencing tomorrow in that post lol

Looks like something trying to brew between Wallum Lake and 146 on velocity. Funny, a FB memory from 10 years ago popped up today. We were night fishing on Wallum and got chased off around 2am by a memorable light storm. 

18z NAM a little more generous with the shear down into Mass, CAPE gone wild. Also looking like more of a west wind which could be an interesting ingredient. 

I'm thinking NE CT, southern Worcester County, northern RI, into Bristol County for the best/worst of it.

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

 

 

I made a post about Wednesday yesterday morning. 

I had thought there was a chance to get some steeper mid-level lapse rates but models kinda backed off on that. Obviously SBCAPE is going to be through the roof given the high temps/dewpoints but as Scott said, MLCAPE is what you want to look at. The NAM is generating insane MLCAPE values tomorrow but its also spitting out Td's into the mid-70's. Now is that possible...it certainly isn't uncommon to see dewpoint pooling ahead of an approaching front but I'm not totally sold yet on dews that high (but I haven't looked in detail to say this for sure). 

One issue I see with for tomorrow is the strongest shear being displaced from the strongest instability, however, there is enough shear across northern/central New England to certainly warrant some supercell potential there. 

Given tall/skinny CAPE profiles and high PWATS greatest risks will be 

1) Vivid/frequent CG lightning 

2) Localized flash flooding (poor drainage) 

3) Localized damaging wind gusts/hail

I'll do a thread later...and include Thursday. Thursday could be decent 

Agreed on the northern/central NE for best as of now. There is an interesting combination of ingredients coming together at the right time in southeast Mass to keep an eye on. 

Waiting on wiz's severe thread for tomorrow after a boring spring.

Spawn is starting to wrap up on the Quabbin but the largemouth bite is heating up. Pitching jigs around shallow cover has been fun. Even got a surprise 5-10 smallie in 18" of water last week.

Think it is has been 3 years since we had a flash flood warning. Going on 2 hours of non-stop thunder. Kiddo won't nap and dog needs to be drugged. 

Was cool to watch that line build up just south of us a few hours ago. 

18 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I DGAF about futures or 1hr/1 day whatever. Algos will whipsaw whichever way over that time frame to throw off trend followers and dumb money. 
 

Algos looked to have a glitch yesterday around 12:20. When AMC got halted GME went from $258 - 285. I'd love to figure that one out. 

18 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

 

Why is next week anticipated to be especially crazy for GME ? 
The chart looks to be setting up for a breakout 

Earnings report and share holders meeting. Also, the hot topic of vote count for board members, etc. and the possibility they get more votes than there are shares. Wouldn't be surprised if here are a lot more votes than there are shares. 

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's like a surging tsunami right now. I'd be shocked if it doesn't cross $100 soon. Short squeeze in play. 

Only a gamma squeeze today. I jumped in early last week after looking at the options chain. Shorts continued to do their thing today and added another 2+ million to the pile. I'm sure some smaller shorts exited though.

Going to be pretty funny when people cash out and put some back into GME for next week's expected craziness. Last I saw,  shorts had lost over $2 billion on AMC in the past 5 days of trading. 

Our dog was complaining at the back door this morning, thought he just had to go out. As I'm half asleep and opening up the slider I noticed a large bobcat walking on the edge of the yard. Our dog is a 65 lbs. hound mix and that cat would have messed him up. I know they can range up to 40lbs but it looked to be larger than that. Surprised how low to ground but long it was are, very dark brown too. Looked nothing like pictures I have seen of them around here. Bummed my phone was in the other room and I couldn't get a picture of it. 

20 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Wow it's dark out street lights just came on

Amazing how it went from blue bird to 10 at night, similar to the derecho last year.

1 hour ago, radarman said:

I don't like Joe D talking about 7/10 splits.  Just give us whatever.

Seriously. 

Meanwhile around the Belchertown State School...

Damn, wtf. 

The greatest of New England weenies and he was proud of it. Just loved weather with such passion. Glad he was able to get his novel finished. The  Jan 2015 blizz and July 2019 Cape Cod tornados were so much fun to follow because of this his posts.  I hope the first storm of the winter season puts 3' down in Harwich.

VIX calls and SPY puts for the win! lol

The Quabbin is like a damn aquarium right now. For a bit yesterday I just watched. Could see small packs of 4-5 lbs smallmouth just cruising around the 10-15' range waiting for males to build beds - which there are very few of. Going to be a wild next 2-3 weeks as the first waves are just moving up. Also saw lakers and some big salmon cruising around shallow as well. Ended up with 2 smallies over 5 lbs yesterday fishing some old stone walls in 15-20', and then lots of 2-4lbs fish up shallow. Clearly the biggest fish are still off-shore waiting. 

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

Most of the smallies I kept came from Seboeis Stream, about 40 miles north of BGR, and the crawdad feast apparently (judged by smallie tummies) continued throughout the warm season.  A rocky stream bed offers wall-to-wall crawfish habitat and the bass know it.

Oh jeez then yes. At least that post helped me organize my thoughts for fishing larger lakes LOL

My theory is craws make up a small part of their diet, but it is when smallies are most active. <50*  water smallies are more likely to be in deeper water focusing on smelt, perch, etc. Crawfish are not exactly dormant but not exactly active in water <50*. Once the water hits around 50* you have craws and smallies looking to reproduce. Smallies like building beds on harder bottoms around rock (compared to largemouth) which put them around areas with craws looking to do the same. Craws are also easy picking at this time because they are active and  easy spot, early on craws either have a vitamin deficiency which creates an olive/blue pattern or they are molting and get that orange color. It's one extreme or the other.

Since smallies are in these shallower rocky areas for a few weeks (this coincides when they are easiest to catch given their aggressiveness) they rely more on craws because it is all that is around them for a food source, along with the occasional bluegill looking for eggs to eat/a bedding area. Unlike largemouth, the gravel/rock areas where smallies spawn attract many other smallmouth. It's not uncommon to have 15-25+ smallmouth bed in one small area. This grouping sets them up for the next stage. Once they finish spawning, post-spawn smallies move to the first drop/grassbed off the area they spawned to recover. Whereas after reproducing, craws - specifically males, go into hiding and really only come out to feed during low light times.

Once the smallies have recovered, these groups hunt in packs for perch which are in that 15-25' range late spring/early summer. They follow the perch off-shore, typically onto humps once the water gets into the mid/upper 60s. When the water gets >70*, smallies head out to off shore humps for the cooler water and are around more smelt which are also looking for cooler water. Once there are some cool mornings in August, smallies start to move from off-shore humps onto long points to have access to the shallower water in prep for their "fall feed." Perch do this as well so when on those longer points they feed up on perch. Once the water temp starts dropping  and you get a full moon in September, the craws are looking to reproduce again and get very active, which coincides with smallies starting to feed up and moving shallower for anything they can eat. And round and round we go. This is my working theory and how I fish for smallies. You can always find some oddball smallmouth cruising the shallows for an easy meal, however bigger (and more successful) smallmouth typically hunt in packs or just massive schools. It's easier for a couple dozen smallies to corral perch or smelt than it is a single fish.   

What a difference on the east and west sides of the Quabbin. Monday, gate 8 (west side) 48-50* water, lakers up shallow, smallies still in early pre-spawn mode. Wednesday Gate 43 (east side), 53-55 degree water and smallies in 2-8' on beds. Thursday gate 8, still 48-50* water but fish are transitioning from 15-20' and moving onto the edges of spawning flats. Gate 8 was a challenge all week but put out big fish, although numbers were not there. Wednesday at Gate 43 had over 40 fish, but none over 3 lbs. Only got about 20 fish from my two trips to Gate 8 but I don't think any were under 3 lbs. Fish are the fattest I've ever seen, typically you need a smallie to be over 20" to be 4 lbs, these were all 4+. 

Caught this one mid cheese stick. She is loving it out there again and listens better than at home. Definitely need to find some different snacks because I will be vacuuming Ritz crackers out of my new carpet until I decided to sell it or do it over again in 10 years. "

18 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Big brush fire burning up in Leyden right now.  
An hour ago this was just a small column of smoke and now half the hilltop is on fire.

Enough vert for tree skiing come winter, snowfields like Sugarloaf? lol

27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

TSLA down another 6% already today

TSLA can fall to 400 and nobody can say there valuation is cheap there . FAANG stocks also going on sale , GOOG, AMZN, FB  . Those are stocks to own for generations , have reasonable valuations and dips are buying opps. APPL is going to fall decent as well .

Data shows Hedge funds were biggest net sellers of stocks for 3 straight weeks (and saw biggest outflows since 2008, institutions were net sellers for several straight weeks, and good ole retail was there to buy the dip in April . This time I don’t see enough volume from buyers (sell in May and go away ) for a snap back . Thou who knows what goes on .

VIX is climbing. 

My tin-foil hat says Hedge Funds are behind a lot of the crypto pumps. They need it.

Edit: Borrow rate for AMC >70% LOL, godspeed to all those involved on that. 

5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I told people to invest in Ethereum not shit coins.   

If it really went nuts (got >$1) and started to be supported by places like Coinbase then the ride would keep going. I'll be curious if those April peaks of .40-.48 act like support now from the bottom falling out. 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Impossible. Like mathematically, it just doesn’t make sense. If they think $10 is within reach, the math says for that to happen the market value would be higher than China’s DGP...which is insane. 

Well, there could be a day or two this year Gamestop is the most valuable company on the planet and Ryan Cohen is the first trillionaire so...lol