PowderBeard

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Two, the compact structure they are also illustrating is unlikely at this latitude. It will almost have to be in transition to a hybrid/cooling core phenomenon, at which time it is spreading out over a larger circumvallate.  blah blah... this is all geo-physical and climo clad...

 

This is boggling my mind. Every model keeps it so compact and not taking on ET features. If it was moving 30+ mph from off the Carolinas to SNE I could see it, but being a slow mover and not taking on ET characteristics makes me think models are clueless. 

NAM doing NAM things. 12z 975mb through 12z Sat vs. 992mb on the 6z.

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IMO. how models initialize strength right now is pretty useless for the overall picture here. Until we see how

1) Henri fully responds to the stronger shear through today

This is what I'm watching. Tonight's updates will have people panicking or weenies saying "it can still ______."

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On the one hand...we all know to err on the conservative side in relation to tropical impacts across the northeast, as systems often end up with less longitude than originally forecast....however, another important consideration is that these "stall and meander scenarios" are also often exaggerated among guidance...especially with respect to a tropical entity in the mid latitudes. Thus it is a very precarious position to have the idea of a less destructive tropical impact dependent upon the whole "slow to a haul upon approach to New England" scenario, which is quite the anomaly in and of itself. It straddles the precipice of hypocrisy to summarily dismiss the notion of a destructive landfall in New England due to the assumption that this thing will grind to halt at 41* latitude.

Lots to consider over the next day as I ponder First Call.

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also FWIW, I don't see much in the way of ET transitioning. This looks like it keeps its tropical-like characteristics.

Was surprised to see this as well. Will be going down the rabbit-hole reading about ET transitions this morning. 

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3.21”!

Seeing a couple WU stations west of you reporting 4.5"+. You'll be there soon. 

Winds really picking up. Neighbors will be calling a tree service. There is an 80' dead oak that snapped about 30' up and the remainder is resting on another tree. It rolls off and about 20' of it is on their roof. 

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Let's get the grounds good and soaked for the damage to ensue Sun/Mon

Flooding and uprooting incoming.

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How much did tamarack measure in that one 

Even farther north in Maine, the snowstorm's effects remained disastrous; following its passage, a 60 acres (240,000 m²) timber lot at Thomaston was nearly entirely uprooted, clearing a massive forested area and making towns from great distances away, previously obstructed, suddenly visible.^[19] The effect of the storm was so pronounced that, according to Sidney Perley, "people felt as if they were in a strange place".^[27] The storm was particularly severe on the Atlantic coast, especially in Kennebec, Wiscaset, Berwick, Kittery, and York, causing moderate destruction and killing several cattle. However, at Portland, the hurricane was less severe and its impact was minimal.^[2]

The social media hype train is running so fast by tomorrow night it will be another Snowicane of 1804. 

47 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m as giddy as a teenager going on their first date. Only difference is I hope the results are better this time 

Henri is making the "prom night promise".

12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

In agawam?

If seals can get up the CT River to Holyoke, so can surge lol

https://www.westernmassnews.com/news/seal-sighted-along-connecticut-river-in-holyoke/article_bbe401f6-7dbd-11e9-9fcb-f7f5bdf558aa.html

11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Some might say “LFG!” .

Someone needs to sacrifice a chicken.

Is Kevin Costner hammered for this "Field of Dreams" game interview? Doesn't sound right.

Never seen clouds moving in so fast. 

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Holy FOC. Gust front . Easy 55+

Was hoping you would get it too. Absolutely incredible. Better than the derecho. 

Memorable storm to say the least. Definitely came in with a 50+ gust. Watched some kayaks and paddleboards get blown off car tops and docks on the pond. Leaves, limbs, and trees down everywhere. Four trees down in the road on the 5 minute drive home.

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

sure will, you fishing shore or boat? I used to have a nice 15 foot bass boat but built a house so I sold it, looking to pick up another one, probably look for a 20HP so I have the option to take it to Quabbin.

Have a 16' "bass boat" for the Quabbin. Complete rebuilt from just the hull. Has a 20hp Mariner and does low 20s. Have dual 7" Garmins and 24v 70lbs Minn Kota with the co-pilot system. If you are looking for a Quabbin boat look for the older 80s hulls, 0* rise and  lighter hulls so great in rougher water and quick. I could put a 25hp 4-stroke on for the Q but just love the older two-strokes. I might get it washed again in September to fish the last month of the Q, we'll see. Drop-shotting smallies in 30-50' this time of year gets boring. 

2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

That's a nice fish.

If you ever want to head out on one of the lakes in Brim/Brookfield just let me know!

Been having too much fun fishing other ponds lately to head back to the Quabbin (never thought I'd say that). Hit Quaboag again the other day and had about a half dozen largies in the 4 lbs range along with about a dozen others. Forgot how much I missed throwing jigs in heavy grass and winching them out. 

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Seabreeze stable marine layer killed the storms

7 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

The relief pitching is painful to watch, they may pull this one out but it's not easy.

I want to see Houck in the pen if they can't keep him in the rotation. No reason to be moving him in and out. 

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just got fukked by the mountain pretty hard .

Literally from like sunshine to the bowels of the atmosphere emptying on us on our hike.  Middle of nowhere, no shelter either.  Felt like a half inch fell in like 10 minutes.  Completely drenched now at 3,500ft.

The chaffing is going to be next level on the way down with wet shorts, ha.

Ouch. At least the temp didn't drop 30 degrees as well!

10 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, it’s a marathon not a sprint but I’m still a little perplexed about the meltdown.  Pitching and clutch hitting coming apart all at once. I’m hoping it’s just the inevitable swoon that most teams have at some point during the season and they get back on track.

11 runs in the last 7 games, cold bats. Xander is 4/22 (.181), Devers is 6/26 (.230), JD is 4/21 (.190) and now on the covid list.  It was bound to happen and I don't mind it in August as long as they wake up in September. Schwarber will help out. I'm not sure any team will hang with SF/LAD come October though. 

Explored Quaboag today. Frog bite was on, had about a dozen, most of which 2-4 lbs. First cast I had a pike in the 15-20lbs range. 7'3 heavy jig rod with 50 lbs. braid, couldn't budge it. Stripped about 80-100' of line off. I had the drag almost cranked, put my thumb on the spool to slow it down and put a good slice in it, popped off in some grass after a 2-3 minute fight. Unreal, thought I was in salt water. I see why people ice fish for them now lol

2-year-old kiddo was very upset about the fish eating "Kermit."