PowderBeard

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Nope.  Throws really hard but has literally no idea where it’s going.

I think it’s Whitlock.  He bounced back after his Yankee outing and really saved the game for them with multiple innings after Barnes last night.

They needed something like that to get them excited again.  Hopefully that fires them up a bit.

I was thinking that, dude can also go 2 innings if need be. I'm still holding out hopes for Valdez in the next few seasons.

We have an interesting pattern in our house with our 2-year-old. EVERY NIGHT after dinner she wants to watch baseball. It is the only thing on TV she will watch for more than a minute or two. Has a lot of lingo down and likes to yell "Kike!" I want her to learn "go bridge" next.  

Really hoping we will look back in late October to yesterday's Sox game as a "turning point." Just need to figure out the closer situation, Darwinzon?

Heavy rain and just got a couple gusts in the 35-40 range the last 10 minutes. 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

Not as small as it looks on imagery. Inflow is amazing to watch. 

Core looking a bit more NW than NNW to me.  Convection really heading west.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=OKX-N0Q-0-24-100

17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

storms still firing kind of surprised thought weakening would have started but looks to be getting stronger

Only one trip through so far but winds appear to be decreasing, only getting 60 knot gusts. 

Weenies looking at models, live satellite and radar:

Henri:

A sign of things to come...

Highest rainfall total? I'm thinking somewhere in the Berks/Western CT gets 8."

10 minutes ago, Quincy said:

00z HRRR sneaks in between MTP and BID. Very lopsided rainfall-wise. Almost nothing on the east side by landfall:

At least a model is finally showing a decent shield. I laughed when I saw it start out 8-10mb higher than what the recons are finding. 

26 minutes ago, Bruinsyear said:

A few hundred gallons of ice cream or gas left? I'd be very concerned if its the former....

27 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I got a gallon of blueberry and a gallon of moose tracks.  They still had quite a bit left up here.  Not sure of their delivery schedule though.

LOL. Well done. Lack of clarity is probably why my dissertation is taking so damn long. 

People prepping late. Just grabbed some ice cream from out local gas station. They have only a few hundred gallons left and not expecting a delivery until Monday at the earliest. Meanwhile there were people from nearby towns who drove there because all their stations are out. 

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m thinking my corner of NW MA I might escape this with just a bit of heavy rain and breezy.

 

I'm feeling some new slides to ski come winter off rt. 2.

Given the mission data and a few hours left over some warm water I bet it is a borderline cat 2 come early morning. 

Rookie question, anyone know if models run off current or historical SST data? Wonder if it being a few degrees warmer than usual slows the weakening process. 

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

They were probably reading American and so all the meh posts so figured not worth it 

Yea, bunch of ungratefuls.

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. 

However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it -

What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste.  The GEFs don't look that way??

Got me too with the graphics. I was just looking back on the east trend that started around 18z and tried to figure out why the NHC moved it west and have not adjusted east. My more emotionally regulated thought was in uncertainty, if it is close to such a large population center, sit on it and get everyone prepared until more confidence in the alternative to avoid the mental whiplash/windshield wiper effect.  

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's comical how each forecasting source/geography is taking ownership of the track guidance.  It's making me actually giggle.  It's as though advertising the exciting strike zone as better in our store, competing for ratings has turned weather events into that faux panache of marketing tricks.

All these offices ( media ) have software and skill to formulate their own graphics these days ... so, they plug the ensemble member into the graphics engine that is the most dystopian excitement for their own ratings?

That's what it comes off as.  I have not seen a concensus that supports that far West, and nothing about now cast evinces that as the most likely either.  Possible, sure ..  All there is, is a couple ensemble members from whichever lusty appeal doing that.

The problem is a sociological one.  Media has come to an understanding that there are no penalties for false impressions - the forgetfulness of feckless society becomes a marvelous buffer.  However, there is huge huge pay-back dividends for getting it right if they roll dice on a scenario and it happens to come true.  It's like all of corporate media engages in Bastardiism

Literally just had this convo with my wife. There is such a psychology piece to this. I would like to think it is about getting people prepared "just in case" but I'm sure it is all about clicks, likes, and views. If you're a little off and it is not as bad, whatever, the weathermen are always wrong. But if you're right, people remember and then you have a viewer/subscriber for life. 

Ha! If you can overlook the overdone mb the 3KM is actually modeling Henri's winds quite well comparing it to the live data. 

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yep. Eye confirmed. Open to the N. 

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:21Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Henri
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 20 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 12:44:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.73N 72.28W
B. Center Fix Location: 213 statute miles (343 km) to the ESE (120°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 21kts (From the W at 24mph)
F. Eye Character: Open in the north
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (66.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 12:38:28Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 62kts (From the SSW at 71.3mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix at 12:00:43Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 56kts (64.4mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (228°) of center fix at 12:46:41Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 298° at 50kts (From the WNW at 57.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 12:49:28Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,459m (8,068ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the SE (140°) from the flight level center at 11:52:24Z

 

Mission 10 showing 30sec average of 78 knots. 

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

If you read the tweet thread she later clarifies the 1,000,000 number is regionally and includes Mass and NH.

6 minutes ago, radarman said:

Sort of agree here.  It could end up a landphoon redux and we'd get significant impact.  

Yup, forget snapped limbs. Lots of uprooted trees.

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well I hope you’re right cuz EVERSOURCE is thinking just the opposite of you.  So someone will be right…?? 

Maybe my tin-foil hat is too tight but I wouldn't put it past them, given the spankings they received in the past year, to come out and say how they are expecting the worst-case scenario only to "exceed expectations" when they restore to most customers within a few days.

Given the SST and better organization I'd be surprised if this wasn't a strong Cat 1 by this evening. GFS, HMON, and HWRF all similar in that regard as well. Getting away from IR as @WxWatcher007mentioned was helpful to see the organization.

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean it’s all just semantics anyway at this level.  I mean is anyone gonna notice the difference between a 70 mph high end T.S., and a 74 mph minimal cane?  Not a chance. 
 

But if he’s an 85 mph Cane, then that’s a different story.  Maybe today and tonight he makes a name for himself, and pulls it together on his final approach into SNE? 

Looking at movement and temps probably another 12-14 hour window left to strengthen. 

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

No doubt in my mind it becomes a hurricane. It was just shy yesterday and it's more organized so far today.

For a shot at anything higher than a mid level cat 1 it would need to start intensifying very soon IMO, but keep in mind that intensification is a dynamic process. Sometimes you develop an inner core that's steady state or gradually intensifies (forecasted here), and sometimes--usually due to hot towers developing and rotating around an eyewall--you get a more robust pace of intensification.  

Given the propensity of Henri to fire deep and consistent convection near what is at least a mid level center, and the difficulty it has had so far to fully develop an inner core, I think it's too soon to make any declaratory statements about how intensification will play out. 

Yup. Just saw the mission 9 data coming in, might have the winds this pass or the next. Thanks for sharing the link.