WesternFringe
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
WesternFringe replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Looks like the CMC wrt to orientation of the max stripe. -
Have 6.5” of snow with a few layers of sleet mixed in so far. Was like concrete to push with the blade and the atv. Awesome storm!
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If this verifies, the Euro was way more correct than the GFS for the last 2-3 days!
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Again, it matters where you are looking. The western part of the stripe is heading south towards the Euro solution. For example, LWX has increased snow totals in their warning here compared to their watch. By like 3-5 inches lol
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There is movt towards increased totals down south and southwest like the Euro. It matters where you are looking for sure.
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Starting to cave to the Euro?
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Colder
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Okay, I will let you all know if I start sleet or snow at 5:00pm tomorrow because the models still don’t agree!
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Yellow is creeping south
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Same. So far, the north/warmer camp won’t cave to the south/colder camp and vice versa. Initially, I thought the model wars were intriguing and fun to watch unfold, but now being so close to the onset of the storm it is just plain annoying. On the bright side, at least we are all tracking and wintry precip is inbound!
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I guess we are looking at different parts of the stripe it is laying down, but the Euro has depicted the heaviest snow right over Augusta County for at least 6 runs in a row now. If anything, the heaviest part of the stripe out west here has moved a tick south in the past two days.
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NAM nest says “what snow?” here in Augusta County whereas the Euro and Ukie drop 12-15”. Lol This is going to be ‘fun’ to track on the way in!
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Looks like Dippin’ Dots candy from back in the day
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Roads caving. Temperature dropped 5° to 30° in the last 10 minutes..
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Snow squalls on and off today. Stickage during high rates. 35 degrees
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I would add Euro and CMC to Days 1-3, but I think it is pretty good. How would you make it ‘accurate’?
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A wise man once posted this. Could have sworn it was you!
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Are you saying we shouldn’t take one run of a deterministic model 3 days out verbatim? eta: Is there a way to block users by location? Like from PA for example? Lol
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If it is souther and more amped, must be more confluence?
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Mappy moved it to banter. Lol In all seriousness, the track appears to be pretty much set within tight goalposts at this point. Now it is thermals and soundings that are most important to those south of the mason-dixon line. Stinks to be worried about thermals (especially down here) in our epic cold pattern, but it what it is. Rooting for a Ukie/Euro blend here.
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Those were point in time maps, not cumulative, so why would it matter if the model is still running?
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It is also about 6 hrs slower than the 12z GFS with the onset of precipitation (3z Monday vs 21z Sunday) here, which makes a huge difference for the temps in the column.
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Question for the more knowledgeable posters here: Does the Euro or the GFS do better with thermals at this range? 12Z GFS has a nasty warm nose at 700-850 mb for most of the storm here whereas the 6Z Euro shows the column staying plenty cold throughout.
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Sooo, does the 12Z GFS run give 2-3" here in NW Augusta County like WB says or 10"+ like SV says? Asking for a friend! lol
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Flurries here in Swoope (Augusta County). 27 degrees
