WesternFringe

Guess I wasn’t articulating well. I have been reading and posting about the volatility and unpredictability of this pattern. I was just trying to say because of that we find ourselves with different lead times than we typically have with tracking.

Usually under 4 days from onset we are trying to nail down the track and the qpf and the thermals. With this one, we are relegated to trying to figure out whether there will be a storm or not in the vicinity.

One of the mets on here (MillvilleWx maybe?) said it was doing well up until Day 5, but not so well Days 6+

I think the train tracks (Chill, 2024) have been laid down for this winter and it seems to want to snow at our latitude. Great cold and longwave pattern and lots of shortwaves to bring us precip (PSU, 2025). We generally need three chances to score once, but some models have us going 2 for 3 or even 3 for 3 in the next couple weeks for measurable snow! Should be fun to track and I think Sunday into Monday (1st shortwave) is a increasingly good chance for a 2-4” event right now imby (Augusta County). 12z Euro showed a 12” snowstorm in frigid cold on Wednesday night after that and was reloading at the end of the run. Long range guidance looks good for snow chances possibly until the end of March (PSU, 2025) Life is good if you like cold and snow. Best luck to all in the forum! That is all.

Multiply them each by 40% and you get a 100% probability of 5-6”

Maybe AI can tell them which parts of the GFS physics model needs to be fixed and why

18z GFS at 144 is snow in nearly all of Virginia

Radio Shack model has 3-5” forum-wide!

What's the timing? 19th/20th or 21st/22nd?

Yeah he said you don’t bring it up in every single (expletive) post, so he had no idea you were the lowest

100% disagree. My family will remember this week forever. 3 rounds of snow totaling 11” and still haven’t gone above freezing since Sunday. The kids got a whole week off from school, as did my wife and I since we both teach. Sledding, fires, plowing snow, movies, blowing snow, family dinners, atv rides, jebwalks, 5° nights, etc. This area in general, and my family specifically, will remember this week in perpetuity.

In reality though, it is cold as heck. Hasn’t gone above freezing since the last storm 5 days ago. We have gotten down to 8° one night and 5° another night. Horses need water heaters in their troughs. I got 6-7” of snow/sleet/snow and then 2 inches of fluff later on Monday night. Wood stove hasn’t gone out since 5 days ago as well. Two inch refresher and the fire rages on!

Southern Alaska is colder and maybe parts of Greenland and central Africa. That’s what I get out of that forecast. Lol

It has mostly ended now. A little more than 2” refresher!

Underdone- from driving in it and seeing it irl

You are always welcome down here! Love to meet for a beer!

Heavy snow driving home 45 minutes ago! 23° and still snowing. Almost 2” so far. Here NW of Staunton Augusta County .

I grew up in upstate NY and it was similar. Snow falling at the bus stop with 4” having just fallen and expecting 5” more. Had to take my mittens off periodically to use my fingers to thaw the ice building up on my eye lashes from my breath. Of course, we had lots of plows and busses with chains and salt and dirt. We were used to 70” a year on average. Not so much in Virginia.

I am a high school teacher. When dealing with public education, one needs to be aware that some parents don’t own cars or have reliable transportation and/or a work schedule that allows them to drive their kids to school. So, it isn’t always up to parents to dictate the transportation method. Thus, the bus is the only option for many students to get to school. I am glad the school divisions are conservative and err on the side of safety since parents would rather school be canceled than have their kids in a bus accident.

Someone posted a line graph of the models and their verification scores a week or so back and the GFS was on a horrible streak in the last month where it went to last place.

Hey, I get an inch plus as well!

Yes jk- I think that is a rule

Last storm it had 12-16” for me and would not budge. I ended up with 8.5” after the 2” in the second round last night. I am not complaining, I’m just saying it is a model and stating the obvious that it is not infallible just bc it has the best verification scores.

One model had one run that said so!

Snowing again and 29 degrees NW of Staunton in Augusta County. Needles mixing in this time around!