WesternFringe

Yeah, even my last hope the NAM took a step towards the globals for temps at 850. However it picked up on some weak CAD that has me in the blue in Augusta County along with some of the more northerly western VA crew. NAM at range with rain 10 miles south of mby- what could go wrong? Lock it in.

I know PSU and others have noted the different thermals on the GFS vs NAM. Here is another look at 850s as the precip has reached Kentucky. All 84 hr NAM caveats aside, just hoping the slightly colder 6Z Euro and the NAM seeing more cold might be the start of positive trend for us. GFS NAM

stuck in the middle with you

The V cut the primary makes on the 12Z Euro from 192 to 204 as moves from Alabama to KY then transfers to the NC coast would make basketball coaches very proud. It is like it runs into a force shield created by the 1034 H just north of the Great Lakes!

You posted yesterday's 12Z Euro snowfall map and used it as evidence that DT thinks the heaviest snows will be in SW VA? That's not what he thinks, that is what the Euro thought 24 hours ago (although those two things may be one in the same).

It was a flizzard for sure. Intense bursts of snow, some with the sun shining through.

Ended up with a half inch here NW of Staunton. 33 degrees

Flurries and 28 degrees here in Augusta County NW of Staunton.

Isn't Cape May in NJ? Why do you come here to this forum to be a doomer?

This is not true just because you state it. The verification scores for the major models have increased dramatically. ETA: For example, this text is from 2015 and the map is from 2017. We are better 120 hours out than we used to be 48 hours out with hurricane tracks. Why? Better models, and by a long shot: Over the past fifteen years, 1- to 5-day NHC track forecast errors have declined by about a factor of two—an extraordinary accomplishment that has undoubtedly led to a huge savings in lives, damage, and emotional angst for the people living in Hurricane Alley.

35, all snow, but light. Merry Christmas to all, happy holidays, and happy tracking!

Gone from 49 to 36 in a little over an hour and snow mixing in. NW of Staunton

Been snowing for the last 3 hours nw of Staunton. Lots of ice pellets today (2 in) and good amount of snow as well (3 so far).

Half an inch snow, then a half an inch sleet, now back to all snow. NW of Staunton in Augusta County

Churchville? eta: 0.4” snow, 27, but rates not impressive thus far

Rippin’ fatties! Just wanted to get that one off the bingo card. Augusta County

Moderate snow and 26° for the last 15 minutes here NW of Staunton

26/25 30.24” 89% humidity light virga NW of Staunton

24/22 30.20 Expecting mostly snow at 1545' here in Augusta County NW of Staunton. Snow onset T minus 9 hrs and counting. Let's do this and get pummeled by fatties! eta: 23/21 15 minutes later

35/20 30.28 here in western Augusta County (Staunton area). Should stay mostly snow here, with a possibility of a little ice mixing in around 4:00pm tomorrow before changing back to snow. Probably 8:1 ratios or so with around 1" qpf. Excited!!

Just conveying what the model is showing, using positive snow depth change to avoid counting sleet, and it is showing an improvement for many (the most populous areas in this forum). In reality, you never had 3" before and you don't have 10" now.

12Z better for most in the forum than 6Z, no?

What does the purple shading denote? Can't see the legend in that screenshot.

That was the old German model, right?

Not trying to be a weenie (just comes naturally) but don't the ops carry more weight than the ensembles at this range?