WesternFringe

Half an inch snow, then a half an inch sleet, now back to all snow. NW of Staunton in Augusta County

Churchville? eta: 0.4” snow, 27, but rates not impressive thus far

Rippin’ fatties! Just wanted to get that one off the bingo card. Augusta County

Moderate snow and 26° for the last 15 minutes here NW of Staunton

26/25 30.24” 89% humidity light virga NW of Staunton

24/22 30.20 Expecting mostly snow at 1545' here in Augusta County NW of Staunton. Snow onset T minus 9 hrs and counting. Let's do this and get pummeled by fatties! eta: 23/21 15 minutes later

35/20 30.28 here in western Augusta County (Staunton area). Should stay mostly snow here, with a possibility of a little ice mixing in around 4:00pm tomorrow before changing back to snow. Probably 8:1 ratios or so with around 1" qpf. Excited!!

Just conveying what the model is showing, using positive snow depth change to avoid counting sleet, and it is showing an improvement for many (the most populous areas in this forum). In reality, you never had 3" before and you don't have 10" now.

12Z better for most in the forum than 6Z, no?

What does the purple shading denote? Can't see the legend in that screenshot.

That was the old German model, right?

Not trying to be a weenie (just comes naturally) but don't the ops carry more weight than the ensembles at this range?

Or who live at higher elevations in western VA, like me. I agree with her that I am not ready to give up on this storm when the GFS and Euro still paste me with 13"+.

Depending on location. Would be devastating down here imby, but it is trending the right way at least. Oh yeah, it is also garbage.

fixed it for you

I have enough experience with snow growing up in New England and upstate NY to know the difference between 15:1 and 10:1 and 5:1 snow when I get it without melting it down. I get both above and below 10:1 here, but this storm's thermals from 850s to 925s to 2m here at 1540' appear to be the kind of setup where I tend to get 12:1 or more. We shall see.

Not where I live at over 1500' in Augusta County. I regularly get over 10:1 ETA: Also, isn't the whole point of Kuchera ratios to adjust for the thermodynamics of each particular storm, and not randomly assign higher ratios than climo would normally suggest?

I don't buy it. Other than compaction, why would this be more accurate than Kuchera when I don't come close to losing 850, 925, or 2m the entire event?

After you get some rest, can you explain what you mean by + Theta-E advection. You have mentioned it at least in your last 2 posts, and I would love to know what it is! Thanks for analysis, as always!

That's more than the ICON has for the entire storm for me. Not a bad morning to start things.

Super excited for this storm, even down here by Staunton! Last time we had more than 5" was December 9, 2018 when we had 7". Can't wait for my kids to be able to see a real snowstorm again. Even with the warmer GFS (vs the Euro and CMC), I never lose 850 or 925 temps, even towards the tail end of the storm with the southerly upper level winds. I don't have the banding upside potential that many in this forum have, but with my elevation and the CAD firmly in place I won't be sweating temps towards game time and I will take that trade off. Looking like 8-12" here, with snow during the entire daylight hours on Wednesday and ending Thursday after midnight. Hoping the upper thermals trend more towards the CMC and the Euro solutions and the track trends towards the GFS for all you folks in the metros and that you get just crushed by the CCB and banding as the low heads OTS!

Bob Chill always said around 72 hrs

I don't believe the GEFS, since significant freezing rain rarely pans out in my experience (December '93 Philly area being a major exception). On Wednesday, it is likely going to be white rain or snow, and I am betting on snow. Cheering for the Euro to nod along at 12Z with the CMC, and to a lesser extent the GFS (which fringes me a bit out west here).

Lol! I can’t figure it out on my phone! Oh well!

About half an inch here and snowing, 27°. Going on a Jeb walk.