WesternFringe

Especially when I start to look at trends since the 1960s. My n = 62 will go to n = 6

n = 136 isn’t such a low number, but I can run a statistical analysis of the median of decades. I think mean is more useful over 136 years than medians of decades, which are a man-made concept, but I will take a look.

This is the link for my DC annual snowfall statistical analysis since 1888. Snowfall is barely decreasing when measured from 1880s (-.07” per year) and 1960s (-.03” per year). Snowfall is up (+0.17” per year) when measured from the 1980s. Most of the variability is random and statistical noise (96+%). Doom and gloom, in my opinion, is just human error (recency effect) when interpreting recent winters emotionally. These were my conclusions from the link above if you don’t want to view the link: Conclusions: Annual snowfall In DC has declined on average 0.07" per year since 1888. Annual snowfall In DC has declined on average 0.03" per year since 1969. Annual snowfall In DC has increased on average 0.17" per year since 1984. The vast majority of the variability (94% up to 99.8%, depending on the time period observed) from year to year is statistical noise, or random, and not due to the passage of time.

I had 28.5” last year which was a few inches above climo for here (Augusta County). Perspective is paramount, for sure.

So one in the 40s, two in the 50s, none in the 60s, one in the 70s, two in the 80s, none in the 90s, one in the 2000s, and two in the teens. Seems like a pretty consistent pattern.

Down to 16 degrees here and continuing to drop. Gusts over 40mph. Sunny. NW of Staunton

That is consistent with what LWX has been forecasting for out here in Augusta County. An inch or two of snow/sleet with .1 to .25 freezing rain.

This. I have a gut feeling we can still do snow well in a modoki nino and a nice run of plentiful snow years will put this all in perspective. Then we can better determine whether this poor run we are currently in is more cyclical in nature vs a long-term trend. We shall see.

Okay, keep us posted.

Well, exactly. Do you follow this weather board to see how much other people are getting, or how much you might get? Lol Also, I score little events out here when most of you all have given up, this place turns to banter, and Ji is jumping out windows. So, yes, I was asking how much the Euro showed for mby, and I am not sorry.

Does anyone have a VA zoomed in map of 6z Euro snowfall for this storm? To my weenie eyes, it looks like the 6z is depicting 6-8 inches in western Augusta County.

Such a blanket statement that it is almost meaningless. It matters where you live in VA and where you live in NC. I eked out 28” last year here in the valley (augusta county). Pretty sure most of NC didn’t do better than that. On the other hand, I am sure the mountains of NC do better than VA Beach at accumulating snow.

Also, there is still frozen falling at the end of its run for far western and northernmost VA.

Meanwhile, my buddy in Deadwood, SD just got a record 5 feet in a couple days. If snow is the measure, there are winners and losers in all patterns.

Yeah, I am still in the game for a white Christmas out here, but anything over 4 or 5 inches seems out of the realm of possibilities at the moment.

Without a map or location stated for your forecast, you can just adjust where it was for afterwards and claim victory.

Here you go. Brutal cutoff on the 18z GFS Kuchera (from Pivotal) .

Yoda? Stormtracker? Bueller? Bueller?

32 and light sleet here NW of Staunton. Trees covered in ice and about an inch of sleet on the ground. Schools are all closed. Nice ice storm here!

35/30 and intermittent sprinkles here NW of Staunton

34/31 here NW of Staunton

how much ice when it is half orange and half blue?

LWX upped ice accumulation totals about 40 minutes ago

They should be fine traveling tomorrow. Early Thursday morning is when the freezing rain is modeled to start.

He is literally raining on my (ice) parade