WesternFringe

Hello! I am at 1540’ but have some topographic lifting that helps me and tend to do well for my elevation. Expecting 2”-5” in my county falling from the sky by looking at modeled snowfall but only maybe 1”-2” accumulating looking at snow depth change maps. Rates should be fairly heavy considering the whole event is not very lengthy.

Yeah, my sister who lives north of Albany (Halfmoon/ Clifton Park) is just reaching climo of 60” and is modeled to surpass that easily with the upcoming storms. Must be nice!

Do you think it is cold enough to snow? Could you clarify? Lol. Jk Looks and feels cold enough out here again finally for snow in Augusta County. Most models and forecasters saying to expect amounts in the 1-3” range. If I get 3”, it will triple my 1.5” total for the season and I will be ecstatic. What a winter!

Looking good for the western (and NW) parts of the subforum. 6Z GFS has 4 waves in the next 13 days that bring frozen out here.

Most folks are 18 times bitten, twice shy! Lol I am all in on these waves in the next two weeks, though. Why not? It is the best look we have had all winter, so it doesn’t make sense to quit tracking now. After that, I am out and hoping for warm weather and outdoor time.

Still drops about 6" here in Augusta County but in a completely different way than the GFS just did. This will be interesting to track!

Wave 1 for Friday on the 12Z GFS is a 3-5” overrunning event for us western VA folks in Augusta County. Would quadruple mby snow total for the winter! Lol

Yeah, CMC much improved with the ULL pass. Probably need even souther, but a definite improvement vs 00Z:

You keep saying that

Would be quadruple the amount of snow we have had all season in Augusta Co. I take lol

Are you okay?

The op is like one high resolution member of the ensemble at day 8. And the mean of all the members outperforms any one member at these leads.

He's more into analysis than calming weather weenie lemmings that jump off of a cliff every 200 hr op run. lol

Mexico gets more snow than most in the subforum lol

This is a good point and I agree with you, but that map also includes the 5-18" PA, upstate NY, and southern NE are getting this weekend to be fair.

Like Mappy said, go away, please, if you think it is shit the blinds.

But you compared 2 Euro runs a day apart that DO show the energy ejected more quickly east. I am confused now lol

One is faster with the lower heights moving east?

Did you miss his Hitler meeting with his generals YouTube video? Hard to top that, but this was funny af for sure!

One of my favorite parts of this sub is folks arguing about impossible hypotheticals, like giving up 5 years of snow for a March 93 redux. It’s ridiculous, so my turn. : ) No way I would give up 5 years of snow for one storm. This board melts down when we have one putrid winter. Imagine the absolute train wreck it would be in here if we failed for 5 consecutive years bc one poster made a deal with the devil like this that took!

“…looking at events for long leads with the ensemble I think it’s best to take an average of say 2 days of runs for any one discreet threat or period.” Agreed- you make many valid points, but this is the best one. My comment was more towards how many times daily I have been ‘ensembled’ mapped (NAM’d) to see exactly nothing produce from it. Also, I am at 1550’ and way further west in a predominantly cutter pattern due to the SER, so ensembles have been accordingly bullish all winter showing much better percentages than you are saying that you have seen. To no avail.

If you read LWX’s discussion, they said they had roughly half of guidance showing 30s and wintry weather and the other half showing 70s, so they split the difference and said 40s/50s. I suspect your local news station either did the same or agrees with the trend of a NW passing system that brings in warm air from the south.

We have one more window mid-month after the 3/4 hail mary, and after that I am done tracking winter weather and rooting for 70s and working my greenhouse

I know how to read them, but okay, fair point, so multiply them by .25- still missing LOTS of snow. There have been many, many times this winter I have been in the 80%+ probability zone for more than an inch and the 50% to 90% probability zone for more than 3 inches. I have 1.5” of snow this winter with another 1-2” of sleet. They never verify this winter, even when showing high probabilities. They have been egregiously useless this winter wrt snowfall, full stop.

Yeah, we are all missing 30-50” inches vs those ensemble maps verbatim this year