WesternFringe

Yeah, whatever man. See my post. I am not even arguing either side of cc though my whole point is that the cavalry is late bc the model doesn’t even show what we were arguing over being impossible even happening anymore

Again, people putting words in my mouth. I don’t disagree with any premise you mentioned. I also am not going to pretend that a 192 hr op depiction proves anything! That is my point. I am not talking climate change at all. The next 2 runs of the fricking same model showed nothing like we were talking about!!!! So why even say this shouldn’t happen when it never fucking did!!!! Jesus Christ, that is all I am saying!!!

Yeah, we were all talking about a discrete threat, so you have it right about that. The models saw rain bc the ground layers were warm in its depiction of the future. And then we all agreed to kinda see what actually happens in 8 days instead of focusing on one model run’s output. But I am missing the point? Enlighten me eta: And it is bs if you say it is concerning when the model says this at all. Where were you all in saying it was concerning when the models were portraying 20-30 inches a few runs ago? Get real and accept the good with the bad. And also realize that 192 hr depictions rarely verify.

If that means discounting an op run at 192 that never happened that it’s own two subsequent runs disagreed with and said would not happen, count me an ostrich! Lol ETA: but keep preaching to me about events that never happened. That will prove your point.

If every model run’s output is a concern to you, you are ridiculous and missing the point. Hour 192 never verifies on the GFS. But yeah, I am missing the point!? Lol eta: it was model output that we were discussing that never happened at 192, and hasn’t been modeled since as even close to our area at 186 or 180 in the 2 subsequent models runs, but I am missing the point? I should have been alarmed by the one run? Okay, you are right. The fact the models showed something that never happened is evidence of….what exactly?

So a model that factors in historical data is outputting what would not have been expected in the past? Thanks for the insight. Abd btw, the model isn't even showing anywhere close to what we were disagreeing about 2 runs ago at hr 192 anyways, so you are way late.

So the forecast temp on an op changed 7 degrees 13 days out? Shocker!

Didn’t a wise poster (psu) just say this 20 hrs ago?: A pattern change doesn’t mean we instantly snow. You seem overly focused on snow otg but in the long range we’re often discussing a process. There was no cold anywhere in North America. We can’t go from that snow by snapping a finger. It’s taking some time after the long wave pattern flips to establish enough cold in our area to get snow. Even then we will need luck. It is a pretty good pattern to get a snowstorm in the eastern US. But it could go just north of us. Just south. Cut island a bit. Out to sea. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee snow. We also need luck.

GFS saying snow again for Augusta and surrounding counties Friday night into Sunday morning.

44 currently and steady light rain today in western Augusta County.

I hear you, but let’s wait until it happens or at least gets closer and is continually modeled to add it to the book. And maybe more than just one model showing it as well. It is also perspective. My elevation of 1550’ helps out here. I got 8” on 2/6/21 for the superbowl and another 5” five days later. This storm that we are discussing now drops 6” imby verbatim according to the GFS. Not sure what storm last year you are referring to, but it has happened out here as well. Did we not used to get perfect track rainstorms in winters in the past? I remember some in the 80s even in upstate NY that were disappointing rain even with a classic track.

Never said it didn’t bother me, so please don’t put words in my mouth. I think it is perfectly relevant to distinguish between weather depicted at Day 8 on a model (with very little skill after Day 5) and weather that has actually occurred. I will have to respectfully disagree on this one. When you say, “it shouldn’t be possible” it very well might not be. There are plenty of times the experienced and knowledgable posters on here disagree with the surface depictions based off of the H5 in the Day 5-10 range. But this time it is irrelevant that the event hasn’t occurred and is 8 days away? C’mon, man!

It hasn’t happened yet. Can we at least wait until it occurs to put it in PSU’s book?

Remember a couple pages back when we had a KU on the longe range GFS and snow maps were allowed bc it is Christmas? Those were the good old days. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, all!

When it snows for hours in the morning and hours at night driving around, it is super pretty and makes it feel like winter and is exciting to me. I grew up in upstate NY and had lots of days with flurries like that. Even without accumulation, snow can be fun. I record every time something frozen falls from the air in my logbook on my phone, like on 12/18 when we had flurries off and on all day and driving at night looked like hitting warp speed in the sci fi movies. It was awesome!

I never gave up on this window. We would gladly take another 3” wet snow storm out here. Counting days with legit flurries, this would be the 5th time it has snowed in a month if it verifies, which has already been more snow than last year! That said, I would rather this be a 3” snow for the whole subforum with entrenched cold in place, but alas the weather doesn’t care what I prefer.

I teach HS math, like algebra, geometry, calculus, stats, etc. In my 21st year. I have my PhD and should go teach preservice teachers in college, but I just really love teaching high schoolers.

I forget, is it you or Stormchaserchuck that said mushrooms are better than weed? Just kidding, and I know you know more about longwave weather than I do, but I don’t always understand what you mean. 12Z shows what the ensembles hinted at which is a lottery snowfall potential for some in our sub late next week. Likely favors NW and elevation as temps and lift dominate the snow equation

Gives me 3-4” and PSU similar, which, I am reading bodes well for winter overall for the subforum! ETA: I know that the GFS, even if right about snow developing, very likely will not nail the location at 174 hrs, but this tells me maybe someone in the forum has a chance for a quick shot of pouring snow

Weather app on my phone is showing snow for us with elevation in Augusta County that day. Will be keeping an eye on that storm. Self-

6

So, instead of 22 at night it might only get down to 25? Oh no! Also, using ensemble means for accurate temp forecasts at hr 276 is funny bro.

Flurries for the 2nd time today in Augusta County NW of Staunton. 32 degrees. Looks like I was traveling through a galaxy filled with stars when driving just now.

The mountains there form a tight U-shape with Sherando tucked in the middle, so it gets upslope from pretty much any direction a storm approaches from.

There’s like a whole other thread for this and stuff