WesternFringe

Some of this looks like artifacts of timing to me, since the sw has sped up.

37 degrees and light snow here in Augusta County nw of Staunton

Okay, man. You literally direct quoted me two times. I am not talking climate change, I am talking about your contributions to the mid range discussions and how they are super super repetitive and wear on everybody. And who cares if you are done?

It is about 40” for mby. Legit weenie run. Lol!!

Say it more. You have proven your point (at least to your self-satisfaction) literally hundreds of times. We all come here to talk about how it might snow and to have fun with it. What is the actual f-ing utility of saying the same thing over and over and over? At a certain point, who cares if this used to be a snowier set-up? What we all care about is snow chances for next week. We don’t need an incessant and never-ending dissertation why it would have been a better set-up 20 years ago. Who fucking cares? Jesus christ. Most of us just care about the fun of snow chances next week, and really don’t care where you think it fits historically at all or in the least little bit. This hobby is supposed to be fun and you are a kill joy at times. It’s that simple.

I don’t know. But I know with the marginal thermal situation we need everything else to break near perfectly. 50/50 isn’t perfect rain. SW too amplified rain. Surface track inside at all…rain. I guess you can focus on all those variables but the one simple thing that would change all this in our favor would be if the airmass was maybe 5-10 degrees colder. I was talking about when you said this. We all know this. Saying it would be different if it were 5-10 degrees colder is meaningless. Of course it would. You say this a lot.

Because saying it would’ve been different if it were 5 to 10° colder on every storm in the winter is a meaningless thing to say. Of course it would. That goes for anywhere and any climo. So why keep saying it?

Straw man. When was it ever going to be 5-10 degrees colder in this setup? You and others even told us so from the get go. ETA: it looks forecast to be cold enough out here to have a really good chance of accumulating snow west of 81. And also up the valley ene from me. etaa: but what I don’t claim to know is the final result, which is why we all track. If you do know, it is kinda boring I would imagine

No one knows the final result yet. As depicted, you may be right, but who knows? It is hubris to think you know more than the models that are not even showing the final outcome yet. The models don’t even agree with one another and you seem to weight the lowest verification score model (the GFS and it cousin the GEFS) as your bighest deb trend rationale.

So, is winter still canceled?

Why come to this thread then? Or are you saying it is time for a separate Jan 6/7 thread? Yes, I said it. Lol

Also some of this could be artifacts of timing. Would be more helpful to see a loop of 24 hrs from each run compared to one another ETA: the increased snow on the Euro from 0z to 12z is something to watch. If it keeps looking like that, it might be a trend towards snowier outcomes for many in the MA

Can you get verification scores for the ensemble members anywhere? That would be fun data to have

No, but I don’t call people names. Can you say the same? You made a forecast, I commented on it. I still find it literally meaningless to forecast similar probabilities for 4 such disparate outcomes. eta: and always will

But the trends…

You practically said 25% for each of 4 scenarios, so you have all of your bases covered and the forecast is essentially meaningless, but keep trashing others with ad hominem attacks. eta: ninja’d by NA101

I like you and always have enjoyed your posts, but do you always talk about yourself in 3rd person? Too funny. Lol If one data point from where you start makes a trend, then my Stats professors lied to me. Agree with your post regarding the first wave determining a lot of the outcome of the second wave.

Starting from what reference point? Last 3 runs? Last 5? Last 10? Not being contentious, just honestly curious. Like you have correctly stated before the starting point is important to denote when identifying trends, and choosing that starting point can frame the data in any way you would like to frame it. In other words, I am wondering about the magnitude and the timing of the trend. eta: For example, the 18 hr trend on Will’s gefs mean snowfall maps was robust and towards more widespread snowfall in Virginia, but the 24 hr trend was minor and only a slight push SE with the heavier snow line.

The latest run looks most similar to its run 24 hours ago, except for a slightly better push SE with the 2” line in northern Maryland and towards the metros.

Question for the mets, is there a NBM for ensembles? Or does the blend include ensembles, ops, and mesos? If it includes all, does the weighting change as time progresses toward zero hours out?

I know it is an op run at 6-7 days, but the gradient on the 12z GFS is crazy if it were to verify like that. Verbatim Augusta Co imby would get 10-12” but 10-15 miles away would get 0-1”!

Apparently, the geese know what’s up.

So, the Geese Index is high right now. And there is a 2-3 week delay in its effect on snowy weather, sort of like SSW events. Got it! In all seriousness, I am focused on the ensembles and the 7th. Would be nice to get everyone on the board, even if it isn’t the MECS, HECS, or the KU that some in here are hunting.

Snowing at Wintergreen according to mPing users. Reports of sleet in Greenville, according to family members.

Ops aren’t great at predicting temp at hr 216? Wow! Great insight eta: ops are pretty useless after Day 5, but we know this