The second photo clearly shows that there are not inches of leaves. Clear instance of slant sticking or was the measurement in a drift? Upslope enhancement by the birches? If so, do you find that to be more likely to occur with a blocked flow? What has the Froude number been lately? What is showing at the stake? Regardless, I assume Jay Peak is reporting twice the leaf depth as you have.
There, I think we are prepped for winter.