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79/63 partly sunny (by which I mean 85/68 hazy and breezy.)

Here is the BTV AFD discussing Thursday: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Thursday still looks to be active day with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. The main threats with these storms will be gusty winds and heavy rainfall which may lead to localized flash flooding. Plenty of instability will be available owing to the hot and humid conditions, and CAPE values are progged to be in the 1500- 2500 J/kg range. Meanwhile, marginal deep layer shear is expected with 0-6km bulk shear of 15-25 knots. The biggest limiting factors will be the absence of large-scale lift and/or strong low-level convergence. This means that convection will likely be initiated by terrain-induced lift such as lake breeze convergence or orographic ascent. However, once convection is initiated, storms should have no problem continuing to develop given the favorable environment, especially if there is an elevated mixed layer as indicated by GFS forecast soundings. Heavy rainfall is expected where thunderstorms develop with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2 inches. Meanwhile, warm clouds depths should well exceed 10,000ft and storms are expected to be slow moving. Therefore, localized flash flooding and ponding of water is possible. Otherwise, still expecting another day of oppressively hot and humid conditions on Thursday with heat index values in the mid 90s to low 100s during the afternoon.

Off topic: As I was driving to work today, my mind wandered to the history of the NE subforum banter thread. If I remember it correctly, didn't the banter thread get created as a place for weather related banter so as to avoid having it in either the monthly model thread or storm threads? We had the Monthly thread which would in theory have serious discussion and be based on models. When threats loomed, we would then have the threat thread and eventually an obs thread. The banter thread was for other weather discussion that did not fit into those formats- ex discussion of that day's temps, snow pack, etc. Is that correct or is my memory on this off?

Without doing any research, I think the Euro does tend to show more snow in the Dec-March period in N.E. than it does June- August. However, as I said, that is off the top of my head and perhaps others have looked into this already. We all know the GFS is almost as accurate as the Euro when it comes to July/ August snows despite its general weakness beyond 6 hours.

Euro continues to show no snow at all in the N.E over the next ten days. It has been consistent in showing this for a number of model runs and has been bang on when it comes since May, at least, so I think it may be on to something.

Mike's Hard V8?

Software update = phone vaccine.

Where is that? (I know you are in Iceland) Are you on the southern coast? Near Vik?

I tried the Tropifail Deppresscho at Starbucks last week. I would advise skipping the caramel but getting extra whipped cream.

Are the Lupines still in bloom?

I enjoy the subscriptions when I have them but my last commute it was frequently blocked my mountains on my commute so I cancelled. When I signed up again for 3 months free I thought it was for the car but it was just a streaming account which I just don't use often enough to justify the expense. Now I have a new commute I may sign up for the car again when they send me a new offer for that as I think it should be better reception on this route. Plus my regular car antenna is not working well at the moment- I think a mouse chewed the connecting wire- so I am driving 168 miles a day with CDs as the primary listening.

And 29 minutes later, it is done.

Hint- everything has meat in it, even the pastries.

Ooh they gave me the "are you sure, here is an even lower cost option", next they will try to confirm me for that despite my denials.

21 minutes they make the pitch. I deny it, soon to come is the "Are you sure? it is a great deal"

I am 18 minutes into trying to cancel a free trial account with Sirius. We are about to reach the moment where they offer to lower the price.

GILF shorts? DILF Khakis?

Halfway between two Davis readings (both about a mile or so away) - one at 1.07 and the other at 1.10 for last night.

Flash Flood Warning VTC003-025-020045- /O.NEW.KALY.FF.W.0024.210801T2140Z-210802T0045Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Albany NY 540 PM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Bennington County in southern Vermont... Northwestern Windham County in southern Vermont... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Stratton, West Wardsboro, Jamaica, Wardsboro, West Jamaica, Pikes Falls, Stratton Mountain, Stocker Acres, Stratton Valley, Stratton Acres, Rawsonville, Wardsboro Center, Winhall Station, East Jamaica, West Townshend, Kelley Stand and Townshend Dam.

Those banks are cut almost as straight as Kevin's driveway snow in January.

It looks like another round of heavy rain is headed your way.

The closest 2 Davis stations to my house show only 11.24 and 8.86 for the month. That must be why Drought Monitor still has this area in the abnormally dry category.

You may find this article interesting about how widespread natural antibodies became in India post-Delta: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/21/covid-19-antibodies-detected-in-67-of-indias-population

That looks like a Sabra Field painting