klw

-11 at the house when I left. Warmest I saw on the drive to Burlington was -9 coldest was -15. Pretty uniform over the elevations.

You would think that Eyewall leaving and taking his jinx with him would have cancelled Phin out.

I don't know about that. It seems pretty much locked in and agreed that there will be a cutter between Dec 23rd and 25. Couple details still to be worked out. Not bad for 8090 hours out.

IF we start a Grinch Storm 2020 thread right now there is a pretty good chance it materializes (and few folks would be disappointed if it did not).

I got somewhere between 6 and 10 inches. I will call it 8 inches. There was so much drifting this morning that any elevated surfaces were being scoured clean. No rain or mix but we did get to 34. When we did the wind stopped but the snow did not. Some dry sections but no drizzle.

Black Lab. All the furniture colors were designed in a time when we had light colored goldens. Oh and she sheds.

I tried putting my dog out about half an hour ago. The wind was so strong she ran out about 3 steps turned and ran back in.

-13 here

I wanna be sedated

January 28, 1994 perhaps. Burlington went from -28 on the 27th to 47 on the 28 and back to a high of 9 on the 30th. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv 1994-01-15 7 -14 -3.5 -21.8 68 0 T T 15 1994-01-16 -5 -18 -11.5 -29.7 76 0 T T 14 1994-01-17 28 -5 11.5 -6.7 53 0 0.29 5.6 14 1994-01-18 24 -4 10.0 -8.2 55 0 0.05 0.6 19 1994-01-19 3 -17 -7.0 -25.2 72 0 0.00 0.0 16 1994-01-20 7 -6 0.5 -17.7 64 0 T T 16 1994-01-21 13 -1 6.0 -12.2 59 0 T T 15 1994-01-22 17 -2 7.5 -10.7 57 0 0.02 1.0 15 1994-01-23 20 -13 3.5 -14.7 61 0 0.10 2.5 16 1994-01-24 31 17 24.0 5.7 41 0 0.02 0.5 16 1994-01-25 17 0 8.5 -9.8 56 0 T T 15 1994-01-26 0 -25 -12.5 -30.9 77 0 0.00 0.0 13 1994-01-27 15 -29 -7.0 -25.5 72 0 T 0.1 13 1994-01-28 47 14 30.5 12.0 34 0 0.31 0.6 14 1994-01-29 44 9 26.5 7.9 38 0 0.01 0.1 12 1994-01-30 9 -8 0.5 -18.2 64 0 T 0.1 11 1994-01-31 10 -13 -1.5 -20.3 66 0 0.00 0.0 11 I remember sitting in my room with the 6 PM news talking about rain for the next day while it was sitting at -26.

BTV has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Monday: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ005&warncounty=VTC007&firewxzone=VTZ005&local_place1=Burlington VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=44.4836&lon=-73.2114#.YeHdJP7MJPY For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches possible across northern New York and portions of south-central Vermont, while 5 to 8 inches across the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

Just got a Winter Storm Watch: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ005&warncounty=VTC007&firewxzone=VTZ005&local_place1=Burlington VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=44.4836&lon=-73.2114#.YeHdJP7MJPY For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches possible across northern New York and portions of south-central Vermont, while 5 to 8 inches across the Champlain Valley and northern Vermont. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

(Moving this from the other thread to here) I am going over for me because, for some reason, it feels like I see good snows on both MLK Day and January 17. With it being both, I am irrationally expecting to bust high.

Up here the surface looks a smidge west vs 0Z: \

12 Z Euro clown

From the BTV morning AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 335 AM EST Friday...On Monday, a cut-off low will lift northeast and reassimilate with the mid-latitude westerlies. A period of snow is expected as a warm front lifts north before dawn on Monday. For portions of our southern counties, a brief interval of a mix or some freezing drizzle can`t be ruled out late Monday morning into early afternoon, and then some additional snow in the northwest flow is expected as the system departs Monday evening. A period of hazardous travel is likely, mainly Monday morning, but perhaps during the evening as well once we see snow redevelop on the backside of the system. A small window of strong, gusty winds is also possible for the southern Greens Monday morning, but the chances appears smaller this forecast cycle. QPF values are starting to become clustered, and thus snow totals are as well. A widespread 3 to 6 inches is most likely, with locally higher amounts in eastern slopes of the southern Greens and Adirondacks around 6 to 8 inches. Across the St. Lawrence Valley, some heavier snow appears possible, which would yield higher snowfall amounts, generally between 6 to 10 inches. These are very early estimates, and we are still just outside the range of mesoscale models. So anticipate some refinements. On the meteorological side, there`s not much change to note. The pros to widespread precipitation include: strong cyclonic vorticity advection, isentropic upglide upwards of 100mb off 70 knot winds at 290K, a coupled jet structure assisting in supporting strong updrafts, and the upslope component on the eastern slopes. Additionally, forecast FGEN/Deformation appears like it could be a bit more concentrated over the St. Lawrence Valley, with the potential for a pivoting mesoband based on forecast sounding hodographs. On the cons side: brief intrusion of mid-level dry air, terrain downsloping in strong east flow, fragmented FGEN/Deformation outside the St. Lawrence Valley, the potential for a brief period of sleet in southern Vermont, and strong winds fragmenting dendrites (lower SLR values). Indeed, the Cobb method indicates SLR values fluctuating between 8:1 and 12:1 over Rutland, but is forecast to be higher over the St. Lawrence Valley, where values fluctuate more between 10:1 and 15:1. Even in model precipitation outputs, one can see the impacts of terrain shadowing and the dry mid-level air with a gap in QPF values that traverse right over Vermont due to the low`s track near or just south of the forecast area. Overall the forecast has become more tightly clustered, but we remain just outside the cusp of mesoscale models. So some changes remain possible in the exact placement of things like mesoscale features and mid-level thermal conditions, but the overall picture is coming in to focus. Probabilities greater than 4" are generally between 60- 90% for our forecast area from the NBM, and also based off CIPS analogs. We need this snow, with our deficit for the season ranging from 10-15" below average. So, this event will mostly be beneficial for our area, but stay up to date with the forecast for your travel interests. Activity will taper towards the mountain and come to a close during the day on Tuesday.

Some upgraded graphics for you to use:

Was it the EPS which "pulsed" like that with the last storm or the OP?

So are you saying the ens don't justify their means?

Except Whitehall NY https://www.whitehall-chamber.org/

From BTV's afternoon AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 For early next week, the latest data has trended more amplified with a strong storm system after it moves across the Southeast US in response to a northern stream trough tugging it northward. If the storm is steered northward, we will see at least some effect but it is too early to know in what way at this time. The latest GFS ensemble suggests a 20 to 30% chance of seeing at least a 0.5" of liquid, indicative of at least a moderate snowfall, in Vermont westward through the Adirondacks. Similar trends in the CMC and ECMWF global guidance on this forecast cycle occurred. Note this is a massive shift for ensembles of data, as those initialized 12 hours earlier indicated low chances of any precipitation for our area. As a result, we cannot assume a trend yet but have increased precipitation chances substantially to split the difference between the latest deterministic guidance and the National Blend of Models. Stay tuned!

I am KLW and I approve this message. If only it wasn't 6 days out.

He has checked the weather charts to see if it safe to go outside.

Coldest I say on my drive up 89 was -9 around Northfield while the warmest was -4. There was also some snow which had fallen on the high ground in the Barre region.